This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
There are nine NBA games on the NBA docket Saturday, but we'll focus on the eight that start at 7 p.m. Eastern or later. A playoff rematch between the Rockets and Clippers highlights what should be yet another entertaining night of basketball. Both are in the top half of the league in pace, making them good candidates to play a few extra possessions, and thus yield more fantasy production. Metrics like pace and defensive efficiency usually prove to be more effective than the eye test in identifying undervalued fantasy assets, so we'll implement a mixture of both in our search for Saturday's best value plays.
GUARD
Toney Douglas, NO at DAL ($12) - Douglas has outplayed Ish Smith in his first three games with the Hornets and playes more than 20 minutes per game behind Jrue Holiday as a result. The 29-year-old contributes across the board, meaning his mix of rebounds and assists can salvage a fantasy performance even when his shot isn't falling. None of the point guards in the Mavericks' rotation are known for defense, so Douglas should exploit their weaknesses and pile up plenty of production in his time on the floor.
Khris Middleton, MIL vs. BKN ($23) - Middleton has picked up his game lately in the absence of Michael Carter-Williams, and he should keep it going against a struggling Nets squad. Even if Carter-Williams is ready to return, the hot-shooting Middleton will be asked to carry a healthy portion of the scoring load, and Brooklyn's amalgam of scrub shooting guards shouldn't present much of a challenge to the spry swingman. His price is still depressed due to a slow start, so you have a limited time to take advantage and grab Middleton cheap.
Guard to Avoid:
J.J. Redick, LAC vs. HOU ($21) - There's more to fantasy basketball than just points, and that's why Redick's true worth falls below his $21 valuation. Redick's 14.6 PPG through five games is enticing, but he's contributing just 1.0 RPG and 1.8 APG, and not even a date with James Harden's infamous defense will help the sharpshooter improve much on those supporting stats. Most of the others available in Redick's price range are safer bets, as he's basically worthless if his shot isn't falling.
Others to Avoid: Nicolas Batum ($28), Ty Lawson ($27), Jarrett Jack ($23), Ish Smith ($18), Manu Ginobili ($18)
FORWARD
Dirk Nowitzki, DAL vs. NO ($28) - The Pelicans have been the perfect matchup for fantasy production. They rank in the top three in pace while also placing in the bottom three in defensive efficiency, meaning their opponents get a lot of opportunities to score, and they convert at a high rate. Dallas needs Dirk to produce with a chunk of their rotation playing restricted minutes, and he should see upward of 30 minutes in this one out of necessity. Nowitzki has done far more with far less opportunity before, and all the indicators point to a big game.
Evan Fournier, ORL at PHI ($20) - The 23-year-old wing has been playing big minutes of late, and he has rewarded coach Scott Skiles' trust in him with a succession of massive scoring outbursts in recent games. Fournier is averaging well north of 20 PPG over his last five contests, and he's sprinkling in a fair amount of rebounds and assists to boot. The 76ers are (shockingly) not very good, so Fournier should keep the good times rolling, especially with teammate Nikola Vucevic doubtful to play due to a bone bruise in his knee.
Forward to Avoid:
Chandler Parsons, DAL vs. NO ($17) - A lot of the factors that make Nowitzki such a good play against the Pelicans defense hold true for Parsons as well, but he's just not seeing enough playing time yet to be truly productive. Even getting double-digit points from Parsons is a longshot considering in his role, making $17 too high a price to pay. Wait until his workload ramps up before you consider using Parsons, even against the most generous opponents.
Others to Avoid: Tobias Harris ($27), Gordon Hayward ($27), Jabari Parker ($18), Tony Allen ($18), Jeff Green ($17)
CENTER
Kosta Koufos, SAC vs. GSW ($14) - The Warriors and Kings both rank in the top five in pace, meaning this game will have no shortage of scoring opportunities. Sacramento will be searching for alternative sources of frontcourt production with DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) out, and Koufos is the logical choice to fill a large chunk of the scoring void. Rookie Willie Cauley-Stein could be worth a flier, but Koufos is actually the cheaper option despite being a much more polished offensive player.
Center to Avoid:
Rudy Gobert, UTA vs. MEM ($30) - A date with Marc Gasol and a Memphis team that plays at a bottom-five pace is hardly ideal for fantasy purposes. The Grizzlies have uncharacteristically struggled a bit on defense, but $30 is a huge price for a player who hasn't broken double digits in scoring this season. Gobert offers a steady mix of rebounds and blocks, but he's best left off DFS rosters Saturday with less chances to snag boards in a slow-paced slugfest.
Others to Avoid: Marc Gasol ($28), Marcin Gortat ($21), Boris Diaw ($16), Andrea Bargnani ($14)
