This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
There are seven games on the NBA docket Saturday, but we'll look specifically at the six night games. The rosters range from the lowly Nets and 76ers to the uber-talented Cavaliers and Warriors, and all potentially have something to contribute to winning DFS lineups. It's unwise to underestimate individuals just because their statistics aren't translating to good team results, as exploiting the difference between fantasy value and real-life basketball worth is an important and underrated skill.
GUARD
Eric Bledsoe, PHX vs. DEN ($34) - Bledsoe is averaging 44.1 fantasy points over his last six games and is fresh off a near triple-double against the Clippers. Denver is a below-average defensive team, and Bledsoe should use his experience to exploit rookie Emmanuel Mudiay. Bledsoe's price has been steadily creeping up, but $34 is still a bargain when comparing his recent production to the other players in his price range.
Marcus Thornton, HOU vs. DAL ($19) - Thornton has been scoring in the high teens, and is one of very few players in the NBA with a point-per-game average in the same range as their Yahoo! price. Houston has embraced a small-ball approach lately, and the sharpshooter has benefitted with consistent minutes in the mid-30s. The last time Thornton was seeing this much playing time, he was pushing 20 PPG in Sacramento, and there's no reason he can't sustain this pace. Look for him to keep the good times rolling against a Mavericks team that surrenders almost nine three-pointers per game.
Guard to Avoid:
Klay Thompson, GSW vs. BKN ($27) - It's tempting to use Thompson against an overmatched Brooklyn team, but the cushy matchup is a double-edged sword, as the fifth-year shooting guard could end up sitting out a large chunk of the fourth quarter if the Warriors build up a sufficient advantage. Additionally, Thompson has scored more than 20 points just once this season and doesn't offer much in terms of other stats, making him a very questionable play at $27.
Others to Avoid: Deron Williams ($26), J.R. Smith ($18), Matthew Dellavedova ($16), Ramon Sessions ($15),
FORWARD
Evan Fournier, ORL at WSH ($24) - The Wizards allow nearly 10 three-pointers and 110.4 points per game overall, which means Orlando's wing players are in a prime position to exploit this matchup. Guard Shabazz Napier also makes for an intriguing value play if Victor Oladipo (concussion) still can't go, but Fournier will carry a large portion of the scoring load regardless of Oladipo's status. The 23-year-old has really come into his own this season, scoring nearly 20 PPG in almost 40 minutes a night, and Saturday's favorable matchup makes him one of the best value plays available despite a lack of strong supporting statistics besides points.
Bojan Bogdanovic, BKN at GSW ($10) - Bogdanovic has consistently scored in double digits while seeing well north of 20 minutes per game this season. Those aren't eye-popping numbers by any means, but it's hard to find a better bargain than the Croatian forward at the minimum price. This game has a good chance of getting ugly for the hapless Nets, but don't let Brooklyn's futility hold you back from spotting a solid value play on its roster.
Forward to Avoid:
LaMarcus Aldridge, SAS vs. PHI ($33) - The 76ers present an appetizing matchup, but it's tough to trust Aldridge in any scenario due to his early struggles as a member of the Spurs. He's the only forward worth more than $30 averaging less than 30.0 fantasy points per game, and it's best to look for alternatives until Aldridge either picks up his level of play or sees a further decline in price.
Others to Avoid: Joe Johnson ($26), Andre Iguodala ($21), P.J. Tucker ($14), Aaron Gordon ($12)
CENTER
Clint Capela, Hou vs. DAL ($12) - Dwight Howard plans to sit out the second leg of a back-to-back Saturday night, making Capela an excellent value play. Capela posted 13 points, 12 rebounds and four blocks the last time Howard sat out on Nov. 6 and has a good shot of replicating that performance against the feisty-but-limited Zaza Pachulia. Capela's high floor and low price make him a prudent investment any time Howard doesn't suit up.
Center to Avoid:
Tyson Chandler, PHX vs. DEN ($22) - Chandler seems to be declining in his 15th NBA season, as he's averaging a career-low 0.6 blocks per game, and is scoring at his lowest rate since the 2009-10 campaign. The veteran center hasn't reached double digit points in any of his last three outings, and doesn't offer much upside at the moment regardless of the opposition he faces. A number of the options priced below him should have no problem producing similar results at a fraction of the cost.
Others to Avoid: Nikola Vucevic ($32), Andrew Bogut ($18), Festus Ezeli ($16), John Henson ($15)
