This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
There were no games on Thanksgiving, so Friday is an extra-full slate of 12 games. With options galore, it'll be important to get value out of everyone on your team because zeros will really hurt your squad. To that end, let's look at players priced $19 to $34 to find for some value.
GUARD
Rajon Rondo, SAC vs. MIN ($33) - Rondo has played like one of the super-elite for awhile now, averaging a near triple-double of 12.9 points, 14.0 assists and 9.1 boards over his last 10 games. He becomes even more valuable if DeMarcus Cousins has to sit another game Friday (he sat Wednesday after leaving Monday's game early with a sore back), as Rondo tends to help pick up both the scoring and the rebounding slack.
Robert Covington, PHI at HOU ($19) - Covington started the season injured and worked his way back into shape the last week until he entered the starting lineup on Wednesday. He has steadily ramped up his production, averaging 35.2 FPts/G, including a 40.8 FPts effort against the Celtics in that first start. Friday he matches up with a Rockets team that has struggled defensively against opposing wings all season.
Guards to Avoid:
Elfrid Payton, ORL vs. MIL ($25) - The Bucks are a poor defense overall, but they are No. 1 in the NBA in limiting production to opposing point guards. Payton has been up-and-down lately, with a 33.7 FPts effort Wednesday following two games in which he averaged only 16.2 FPts amid rumors that he might be benched.
Monta Ellis, DAL vs. CHI ($29) - Ellis hasn't produced like a front-end starter lately, averaging 25.7 FPts over his last three games, including a paltry 20.5 FPts effort in his last outing against the Wizards. Friday he faces a Bulls' defense that is fifth in the NBA in limiting production to opposing shooting guards, led by the physical Jimmy Butler.
FORWARD
Harrison Barnes, GS at PHO ($25) - Barnes has played extremely well lately, with three consecutive games averaging 32.6 FPts/G entering his Tuesday home game against the Lakers. That game was predictably a blowout, which caused Barnes and the other starters to sit a lot, limiting their numbers. But in what should be a more competitive game against the Suns, Barnes' recent higher level of play should allow him to produce good stats.
Draymond Green, GS at PHO ($34) - Green is the least expensive of the elite options. Every player more expensive than Green averages 34.6 or more FPts/G, and Green averages 35.0 FPts/G. Every option less expensive than Green averages no more than 30.3 FPts/G, about a five-point gap even though it's only a couple of dollars different. Plus, Green has a good matchup against a fast-paced Suns team. And since the game is in Phoenix, there's a better chance that the Suns can keep the game competitive enough that Green and the other Warriors starters may have to play the majority of the game (unlike the blowout in the previous game against the Lakers).
Forwards to Avoid:
Kevin Durant, OKC vs. DET ($49) - This pick requires explanation. Durant is super-elite and likely to still score at least in the vicinity of his 44.9 FPts/G average. However, he is the most expensive small forward on the board on a day when just about every player in the NBA is playing. Thus, if you pick him you are banking on him not just hitting his average, but having one of those explosive games up into the upper-50s or even 60s of fantasy points. The Pistons, Durant's Friday night opponent, are No. 3 in the NBA as far as limiting the production of opposing small forwards. Plus, Russell Westbrook is healthy and will get his normal touches as well. Thus, the odds aren't in favor of Durant exploding, and thus he isn't worth a super-max price on a busy Friday.
Nerlens Noel, PHI at HOU ($28) - Noel started the year playing very well, but after his injury he has had difficulty re-finding his level on a 76ers team that has been relying more upon rookie Jahil Okafor. Noel averages only 16.3 FPts/G over his last two outings and hasn't had more than 30 FPts in a game since way back on Nov. 6. Friday he also faces a Rockets defense that has struggled overall, but he has been good against opposing power forwards as the fifth-stingiest defense to opposing fours.
CENTER
Tristan Thompson, CLE at CHA ($22) - Thompson has taken advantage of the injury to Timofey Mozgov to become a nightly double-double threat, averaging 9.5 points, 13 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 0.8 blocks over his last four games. This gives him a fantasy starters' production but at more of a sixth-man cost.
Center to Avoid:
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN at SAC ($32) - Towns is a favorite based upon his outstanding play for most of the season, but in his last two outings he has struggled with only 14.1 FPts/G. His first poor game came due to foul trouble, but in the last game he wasn't in foul trouble nor was he struggling with injury, he merely sat because the second unit was playing well. Most likely Towns will break out of this funk soon, perhaps as soon as Friday, but he's got a high price point and is playing against a Kings defense that is sixth-stingiest in the NBA in production allowed to opposing centers, so there are options available with better odds of success.
Snellings is a two-time winner of the Fantasy Basketball Writer of the Year award from the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
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