This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
This was an unusual week as far as scheduling goes. Usually there are only about three games on Thursday with a full slate of around 12 games on Friday. This week, instead, there were six games Thursday and six Friday. So there will only be about half as many options this Friday as usual, there will be more overlap between teams, and it'll be more important to hit on some hidden gems. Let's see if we can find some value.
GUARD
Deron Williams, DAL vs. HOU ($26) - First, I have to acknowledge that John Wall is fresh off of averaging 60.4 FPts over his last two games and faces the Suns, the worst defense against point guards in the NBA that just allowed Reggie Jackson to score 62.1 FPts on Wednesday. I'd fully endorse a Wall pick, but he's the most expensive point guard so let's dig a little deeper. Williams has played good ball lately, averaging 37.1 FPts/G over his last four outings, including a 53.2 FPt outing against the Trailblazers in his last game. Williams also has a good matchup, against a Rockets defense that is 26th in the NBA at defending opposing point guards.
Tyreke Evans, SA vs. CLE ($29) - Evans has been excellent since returning to the lineup for the Pelicans, and if his average of 36.6 FPts/G is accurate then he is underpriced. Brandon Knight averages 37.1 FPts/G and costs $37, $8 more than Evans. Similarly, Brandly Beal ($28) has almost the same price as Evans, but he only averages 30.1 FPts/G. The Cavaliers are average defending opposing shooting guards, so Evans should have every opportunity to continue at the level that he's set.
Guards to Avoid:
Ish Smith, NO vs. CLE ($28) - Smith has played very well this season, but with Tyreke Evans and Norris Cole both returning from injury this week and Jrue Holiday likely playing on Friday there just aren't enough minutes and shots for Smith to continue to shine. He's now more of a reserve player, but he's still priced like an impact starter.
Bradley Beal, WAS vs. PHO ($28) - Beal is actually a solid player, but his matchup (Suns sixth in the NBA at defending shooting guards) isn't nearly as nice as teammate John Wall's matchup (Suns 30th in NBA at defending point guards). Thus, the odds are that Beal will have fewer opportunities to score since Wall will presumably get the looks.
FORWARD
T.J. Warren, PHO at WAS ($13) or Stanley Johnson, DET vs. MIL ($10) - These are two minimum price/high-risk prospects who could give you some sneaky value. Both have a game of at least 39.5 FPts in the last week, but both also have games as low as 13.6 FPts in the last few outings. Both are coming off of down performances, but both have good matchups Friday with Warren facing a Wizards defense that ranks 26th in the NBA at defending small forwards and Johnson facing a Bucks team that ranks last at defending small forwards.
Julius Randle, LAL at ATL ($25) - Julius Randle has been hot lately, averaging 33.2 FPts over his last four outings, including a 41.3 FPts effort in his last game. Randle also has a good matchup Friday against a Hawks defense that is 24th in the NBA at defending power forwards.
Forwards to Avoid:
Carmelo Anthony, NY vs. BKN ($41) - Anthony is obviously one of the big scorers in the NBA, and it wouldn't be shocking if he scores well. However, he has been battling a lingering illness this week that caused him to miss one game and to average only 18.9 FPts/G in his last two. Plus, the Nets are actually pretty strong at defending the wing, measuring out as second in the NBA in defending small forwards.
Markieff Morris, PHO at WAS ($25) -Terrence Jones was going to be in this slot, but since Dwight Howard is schedule to sit Friday, Jones actually becomes an attractive option (Clint Capela also gets a boost in value). Morris is in here instead, as he is uncertain to play with a sore knee. Even if he plays, backup Jon Leuer is playing well enough that he might eat into Morris' minutes if the Suns decide to bring him back from the injury.
CENTER
Al Horford, ATL vs. LAL ($29) - Horford is one of four centers Friday averaging more than 30 FPts/G (32.3), but even though his average is almost the same as Greg Monroe's (33.5 FPts/G) Horford is $5 cheaper than Monroe or any other elite center. Horford also has the best matchup, against a Los Angeles Lakers team that is weak on the interior and 29th in the NBA at defending opposing centers.
Centers to Avoid:
Greg Monroe, MIL at DET ($34) - There is some hesitance in this pick because Monroe is going back to his former home to play against his former team, and that could result in a revenge game. However, Monroe is priced as one of the elite centers and players in the game and his recent play hasn't warranted that. Monroe has only surpassed his fantasy scoring average of 33.5 FPts once in his last five games, and he is fresh off of a 25.4 FPts effort in his last game. Revenge could motivate him to outperform his recent play, but there are likely better options available for that much money.
Snellings is a two-time winner of the Fantasy Basketball Writer of the Year award from the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
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