This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
Detroit Pistons at Memphis Grizzlies
Both of these teams have good defenses, and both have been great recently. The Pistons' advantage is their consistency – they have shown that they can be a top tier defense all season long – and Mike Conley's (Achilles) ongoing absence. The Pistons aren't just efficient in the typical defensive metrics, but also in some under-appreciated areas that have a direct impact on fantasy gamers. For example, they dominate the boards, leading the league in rebound percentage. Additionally, both teams play somewhat slowly, which limits possessions.
Offenses to Use
Utah Jazz vs. Sacramento Kings
This short slate of games screams "highlight the Warriors' top ranked offense at home against the Lakers' worst ranked defense." But while their season numbers are still atrocious, the Lakers are in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency over their past 10 game. I'm still targeting the Warriors, but more importantly, I'm also targeting the Jazz, who are the slowest paced team in the league, and their salaries reflect that they average fewer possessions per game. The Kings are the fastest team in the league, so even if the Jazz successfully slow the game down, they should still see more possessions than normal. Furthermore, the Kings are by far the worst defense in the league over their last 10 games in terms of total points, defensive efficiency and several other categories. Not only should the Jazz get more opportunities Thursday, but they should also be able to do a lot more with them.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game: Cavaliers
Second game: Kings, Warriors, Jazz
DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Point Guard
Ish Smith, PHI vs. CHI ($7,000): The Bulls are always a tough opponent, but Smith's recent productivity cannot be ignored. He's scored more than 18 points and more than 40 fantasy points in three of his last four games, shooting 58 percent from the field during that span. And though the Bulls are a good defensive team, they are worse against point guards than other positions.
Other suggestions: Kyle Lowry, TOR at ORL ($8,500); Jordan Clarkson, LAL at GSW ($5,900)
Shooting Guard
Jimmy Butler, CHI vs. PHI ($8,800): I've relied heavily on Butler in this column for the last season and a half, and I will continue to do so until his salary reflects his productivity. For reason's I cannot grasp – and not for lack of trying – DraftKings' pricing algorithm consistently devalues Butler. This recommendation isn't just for Thursday, but for almost every night that he is playing. Thursday he gets the added benefit of playing the 76ers' terrible defense. Be sure to confirm that he is playing before game time – Butler (ankle) is probable. In the unlikely event that he sits, I'll sub in Klay Thompson, who is similarly priced, and similarly underpriced, and whose game starts after Butler's.
Other suggestions: Klay Thompson, GS at LAL ($8,200); Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, DET at MEM ($5,700)
Small Forward
LeBron James, CLE at SAS ($9,700): Despite some excellent play of late, James' salary is actually went down for Thursday's game. This is primarily because of the Spurs' stout defense, which is especially strong against small forwards. James is averaging more than 27 points, nine rebounds and seven assists per game over his last four. Even accounting for a big increase in the ability of his opposition, James should have plenty of opportunity to post a profit.
Other suggestions: Rudy Gay, SAC at UTA ($6,800)
Power Forward
David West, SAS vs. CLE ($4,000): My last few recommendations have been on the pricey side, so I'm focusing on a cheaper options for my big men. West carries a lot of risk, arguably even more than your typical $4,000 player. He has been highly productive lately, averaging 1.3 fantasy points per minute (that's Draymond Green territory). As a result, he's been producing strong fantasy lines with very few minutes of game time. The risk, however, is that since he is playing so few minutes, it would only take a very short slump to do a lot of damage to his profitability. On the other hand, he put up 39.25 fantasy points in just 25 minutes against the Jazz last week.
Other suggestions: Nikola Mirotic, CHI at PHI ($5,900); Trey Lyles*, UTA vs SAC ($4,100); Anthony Tolliver, DET at MEM ($3,100)
* Check both Lyles and Rudy Gobert (knee) for any updates providing insight to how each might be used. So far, Lyles has remained productive despite Gobert's return. Lyles can be used alongside a healthy Gobert, but take note if there are any changes to their expected workloads.
Center
Rudy Gobert, UTA vs. SAC ($6,100): One of the best places to look for value in daily games is players coming back from injury. Their prices are typically lowered by their absences – and maybe an injury-caused bad night – and it takes them a few nights to recover. Gobert fits that description perfectly, having played only two full games since returning from a knee injury. The downside is that Gobert was a bit overpriced before the injury, and so the discount isn't as big as it could be. That is outweighed by the advantages of playing the Kings' terrible defense.
Other suggestions: Jahlil Okafor, PHI vs. CHI ($6,100); Aron Baynes, DET at MEM ($3,200).
INJURY REPORT
Out
Mike Dunleavy, F, CHI (back)
Pau Gasol, F, CHI (shoulder)
Jodie Meeks, G, DET (foot)
Draymond Green, F, GS (rest)
Kevon Looney, F, GS (hip)
James McAdoo, F, GS (toe)
Jordan Adams, G, MEM (knee)
Brandan Wright, F, MEM (knee)
Joe Harris, G, ORL (foot)
C.J. Watson, G, ORL (calf)
Duje Dukan, F, SAC (leg)
Eric Moreland, F, SAC (foot)
DeMarre Carroll, F, TOR (knee)
Alec Burks, G, UTA (ankle)
Derrick Favors, F, UTA (back)
Game-Time Decision
Jimmy Butler, G, CHI (ankle)
Doug McDermott, F, CHI (ankle)
Joakim Noah, C, CHI (shoulder)
Derrick Rose, G, CHI (knee)
Mo Williams, G, CLE (personal)
Brandon Bass, F, LAL (ankle)
Kobe Bryant, G, LAL (Achilles)
Aaron Gordon, F, ORL (ankle)
Elfrid Payton, G, ORL (ankle)
Jerami Grant, F, PHI (calf)
James Anderson, G, SAC (hamstring)
