This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Defense to Avoid
Oklahoma City Thunder at Brooklyn Nets
Based on the numbers, the obvious answer to this question would be the Celtics against the 76ers. The Celtics have been one of the best defenses in the league, especially against perimeter players, and would seemingly have more areas of influence than the Thunder. But, I expect the Celtics-76ers game in Philly to be fairly competitive. On the other hand, I fully expect the Thunder to dust the Nets off the court (i.e. fewer minutes for the main players) with mismatches that don't show up in the numbers. For example, the Thunder are only 19th at limiting production to point guards, but I struggle seeing Donald Sloan doing anything positive against Russell Westbrook. Outside of that matchup, the Thunder are actually strong against centers (seventh in limiting production) and small forwards (fourth) and respectable against power forwards (12th).
Offenses to Use
Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets
The Rockets are extremely generous on defense, and their best defender Dwight Howard is likely to miss the game due to injury. The Mavericks are a better defense overall but have several weak areas that the Rockets are built to exploit. Factor in that it's a rivalry game and likely to be fast-paced, and there are plus matchups all over the board. The Rockets are 25th in the NBA against point guards, 23rd against shooting guards, last against small forwards, 19th against power forwards and 20th against centers. Meanwhile, the Mavericks are notably weak against point guards (26th), shooting guards (22nd) and power forwards (20th).
Teams on Back-to-Backs
First game: Celtics, Rockets
Second game: none (Celtics, 76ers game from Saturday was postponed due to snow storm)
Recommendations
Point Guard
Deron Williams, DAL at HOU ($6,200): Williams has played well lately, with four games of more than 36 fantasy points in his last six outings. On the flip side, the Rockets are one of the weaker point guard defenses in the NBA (25th vs. point guards), and the game itself looks to be a closely contested battle between rival squads.
Other suggestions: Isaiah Thomas, BOS at PHI ($7,800); Kyle Lowry, TOR vs. LAC ($8,500)
Shooting guard
Wesley Matthews, DAL at HOU ($5,100): Matthews has been part of a strong Mavericks perimeter game lately, as he, Deron Williams and Chandler Parsons have produced well at the same time. Matthews has back-to-back games of more than 30 fantasy points and faces a Rockets defense that is 23rd in the NBA vs. shooting guards.
Other suggestions: Avery Bradley, BOS at PHI ($5,600); James Harden, HOU vs. DAL ($10,100), Evan Turner, BOS at PHI ($4,500)
Small Forward
Chandler Parsons, DAL at HOU ($5,900): Parsons is finally coming into his own after battling and recuperating from injury all season. He has averaged 28 points, 6.5 boards and 3.5 treys in his last two games and faces a Rockets defense that is last in the NBA against small forwards.
Other suggestions: Jerami Grant, PHI vs. BOS ($4,400); Corey Brewer, HOU vs. DAL ($3,900)
Power forward
Josh Smith, HOU vs DAL ($3,600): Smith's trade back to the Rockets is one of the most overlooked huge moves in the NBA this season. Smith thrived in Houston last season after flopping in Detroit. Look for him to do the same this season after struggling in LA. Smith turned in 26.25 fantasy points in his Rockets debut Friday, the same day he was actually traded, and with Dwight Howard expected to be out again Sunday Smith should get the minutes to produce against a Mavericks defense that ranks 20th against power forwards.
Other suggestions: Nerlens Noel, PHI vs. BOS ($6,400); Clint Capela, HOU vs. DAL ($6,000), Terrence Jonse, HOU vs. DAL ($5,200)
Center
Enes Kanter, OKC at BKN ($4,500): Kanter has a history of producing impact-player numbers when he starts, and he should start Sunday with Steven Adams sidelined. Kanter is a perimeter-based scorer who should give Brook Lopez fits and has a good chance to strongly out-produce his price.
Other suggestions: Jonas Valanciunas, TOR vs. LAC ($6,400); Jahil Okafor, PHI vs. BOS ($6,300)
Injury Report
Out
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, BKN (ankle)
Donatas Motiejunas, HOU (back)
Steven Adams, OKC (elbow)
DeMarre Carroll, TOR (knee)
Game-Time Decision
Jae Crowder, BOS (illness)
Dirk Nowitzki, DAL (knee)
Zaza Pachulia, DAL (lower leg)
Jeremy Evans, DAL (shoulder)
Dwight Howard, HOU (ankle)
Patrick Beverley, HOU (ankle)
Blake Griffin, LAC (quad)
Nik Stauskas, PHI (shoulder)
