This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
The NBA playoffs shift to the underdogs' arenas with a three-game slate Thursday. Pacers and Mavericks players who carried their respective teams to road splits should make for popular plays now that they're at home, while Stephen Curry's availability is the biggest unknown in an otherwise straightforward David vs. Goliath series. Based on what has transpired, these players have the best chance to outperform their prices.
GUARD
Monta Ellis, IND vs. TOR ($25) - Ellis came out blazing in Toronto, topping 30.0 fantasy points in both games as the Pacers earned a split up north. Look for the veteran guard to keep up that pace now that the series has shifted back to the states, as he represents Indiana's sole reliable source of backcourt scoring with George Hill struggling. He missed Wednesday's practice due to a personal issue, but it doesn't seem likely to keep Ellis off the court Thursday.
Klay Thompson, GS at HOU ($37) - Thompson led the Warriors with 34 points en route to 44.6 fantasy points with Stephen Curry out in Game 2. The Warriors have no need to rush their superstar back considering how dysfunctional their opponents have looked so far, and the other splash brother would once again serve as their primary scoring option if Curry sits. Even if Golden State is back at full force for Game 3, it's not like James Harden is capable of containing Thompson.
Guard to Avoid:
James Harden, HOU vs. GS ($54) - Harden has been befuddled by Klay Thompson's combination of reach and defensive discipline this series, managing a meager 32.8 fantasy points per game. While returning to Houston should help a bit, it won't change the fact that the bearded guard is having trouble getting good looks against Thompson and the swarming Warriors defense. Considering what a large portion of the salary cap Harden eats up, it's hard to justify playing him knowing how badly he has underperformed his valuation in this series.
Others to Avoid: Kyle Lowry ($38), George Hill ($17)
FORWARD
Andre Iguodala, GS at HOU ($15) - As evidenced by the 2015 NBA Finals, Iguodala brings his A-game in tightly contested playoff contests. The star sixth man likely will be called upon to do some heavy lifting with Stephen Curry still battling an ankle injury, especially with Houston likely to throw everything but the kitchen sink at the Warriors in an effort to avoid an 0-3 hole. Iggy's another Warrior whose performance isn't too dependent on Curry's availability, making him a strong option regardless of the point guard's status.
Serge Ibaka, OKC at DAL ($23) - With an average of 33.0 fantasy points per game, Ibaka has dramatically outplayed his price in this series. He should continue to put up excellent rebounding numbers considering the Thunder's gaudy advantage on the glass, and coupling that production with his scoring and shot-blocking gives Ibaka a variety of paths to providing value.
Forward to Avoid:
Kevin Durant, OKC at DAL ($54) - Durant has a history of struggling with tenacious smaller defenders, so it's no surprise that Wesley Matthews has held him to less than 35.0 fantasy points in each of the first two games, including an atrocious 7-for-33 effort in Game 2. While Durant surely won't shoot that poorly again, he's been coming up a solid 20.0 fantasy points short of living up to his exorbitant price.
Others to Avoid: DeMar DeRozan ($33), Myles Turner ($19), Wesley Matthews ($18), Michael Beasley ($17)
CENTER
Jonas Valanciunas, TOR at IND ($24) - Valanciunas has been by far the most productive of the available center options this postseason, averaging 41.4 fantasy points per game. The Raptors need the Lithuanian's prowess on the boards against Indiana's hefty front court, so he should continue to rack up massive scoring and rebounding numbers as the series shifts to Indiana. He looks more spry than Rockets alternative Dwight Howard, and no other option at the position stacks up considering the injured state of the Pacers' frontcourt Valanciunas will face.
Center to Avoid:
Ian Mahinmi, IND vs. TOR ($15) - Mahinmi finds himself in a unique price range at his position, but, unfortunately, an injury should keep owners from utilizing him. He's questionable due to a back ailment, and has looked awful in averaging just 9.1 fantasy points in Games 1 and 2. Either go for an option near the minimum price or pay up for one of the two top plays at the position.
Others to Avoid: Festus Ezeli ($10)
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