This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Saturday brings some interesting games and there's a few I want to focus on for DFS.
The Nuggets and Blazers matchup has the highest total of the night, so we'll want as much exposure to that game as possible. In addition, the Kings-Timberwolves matchup is one to exploit, as well, as the 207-point total is the second-largest on this slate. What's especially enticing about these games is the amount of projected possessions, as there should be plenty of fantasy value to go around for multiple players.
Premium Guard:
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs. BRK ($9,500): For the final two months of the season last year, there were few players better than Antetokounmpo, from a fantasy perspective. He averaged a near-triple-double in that stretch and showed in the opener that he's continuing to grow in running the Milwaukee offense. In that loss to Charlotte, Antetokounmpo accumulated 31 points, nine rebounds and five assists. The matchup Saturday is the best part of this play, as Brooklyn is expected to be one of the worst defenses in the league. In fact, Antetokounmpo dropped a 28-point, 11-rebound, 14-assist, four-steal, triple-double in his last game against the Nets.
Mid-tier Guard
Ricky Rubio, MIN at SAC ($6,300): While Sacramento does have an improved defense this year, it's still one of the worst in the league. Rubio is the type of player who loves these sort of matchups, as he typically stuffs the stat sheet with ease. In his three matchups against the Kings last year, Rubio averaged nine assists per game. He can also get some sneaky points through steals against a reckless Kings team, and he has become one of the top-five theft artists in the league. Don't be shocked to see Rubio flirt with a triple-double in this matchup, with defense being one of Ty Lawson's weaknesses, as well.
Cheap Guard:
Ty Lawson, SAC vs. MIN ($5,200): Lawson continues to be undervalued in DFS right now, and he's become extremely valuable for a guy who was a free agent just last month. With Darren Collison suspended, Lawson has taken the reins at point guard and has seen a heavy workload to begin the season. In each of his two starts, Lawson has played 35-plus minutes and provided 26 and 30 fantasy points, respectively. One of those was against San Antonio, and he should be able to have more success against what should be an inferior Minnesota defense. There may be no better bet on the board for 5X value, as 26 fantasy points appears to be a floor for Lawson at this price.
Premium Forward:
Kawhi Leonard, SAN vs. NOP ($8,400): Leonard made some improvements in the offseason and he looks like a major MVP candidate this opening week of the season. Not only has he scored 30-plus points in his first two games, he is also averaging four assists, four rebounds and five steals per game. That's monster fantasy production, and his price hasn't reached his new value. This matchup is spectacular, as well, with New Orleans expected to be one of the worst defenses in the NBA and coming in on the second night of a back-to-back.
Mid-tier Forward:
Gorgui Dieng, MIN at SAC ($5,700): Dieng is becoming a favorite of new coach Tom Thibodeau and it's hard to deny his capabilities. Dieng double-doubled in the opener on his way to a 37.8 fantasy point outing in 34 minutes. Those minutes demonstrate that Thibs is committed to Dieng up front alongside Karl-Anthony Towns, and he should continue to see a heavy workload. DeMarcus Cousins and Towns will bang down low and Dieng will be left to feast on everything they can't get. He will also have the fortunate opportunity of being matched up with Kosta Koufos or Willie Cauley-Stein. Those are even better matchups for a player who is significantly underpriced.
Cheap Forward:
Al-Farouq Aminu, POR at DEN ($4,500): Aminu has really struggled in his first two games, but his price has dropped too far. He played at least 25 minutes in both of those games and there's no reason to think he's not a fantasy point-per minute type of guy. If he can do that, he could provide 6X value on a $4,500 price tag. This matchup is exploitable, with Denver projecting as a below-average defense. In addition, this game has the highest total of the night, and that should benefit a player like Aminu, who thrives off athleticism and provides fantasy value through hustle statistics.
Premium Center:
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN at SAC ($8,700): There are six players priced higher than Towns, but it's easy to make an argument for Towns as the most valuable player on this slate. In his last two games against the Kings, Towns has totaled 43 points, 21 rebounds and five blocks. Those are huge numbers, and it seems plausible that he'll improve on those numbers in his sophomore season. A matchup against DeMarcus Cousins will bring out the best in KAT, and he should be able to thrive at what's ultimately an affordable price -- in fact, you'd have to pay $2,100 more to play Anthony Davis against the San Antonio Spurs. Despite Davis' ridiculous start to this season, Towns and Davis have similar value and KAT has the far superior matchup Saturday night.
Mid-tier Center:
Mason Plumlee, POR at DEN ($5,300): Plumlee is always a better play when he faces a team who start and play legitimate big men. That makes him valuable here, as he'll play against a Nuggets teams with two traditional bigs in Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Jokic. That means plenty of offense will run through Plumlee, as they'll allow him to make decisions at the top of the key with Damian Lillard and C.J McCollum running off of screens.
Cheap Center:
Roy Hibbert, CHA vs. BOS ($3,900): The former Georgetown star had a fantastic opener, and it's clear the Hornets want to use him as their starting center for the time being. Hibbert recorded 38 fantasy points in his Charlotte debut, and he fell a rebound shy of a double-double while swatting away five shots. Boston is the sort of team that plays big, more-traditional centers, so that should make Hibbert even more useful. The real concern here is Hibbert's knee, though, as soreness forced him out of Friday's game against the Heat. The big man is considered questionable to play as of Saturday morning, but if he's given clearance, this price may be too good to pass up. He provided 10X value in the opener, and that sort of upside is what makes him such a great value. I can't stress enough, though: Check for updates on Hibbert before inserting him in your lineup.
