This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defense To Avoid
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets. No defensive unit stands out in particular Thursday, but the Wolves have limited opponents to a fifth-best 96.0 points per game and seventh-lowest 42.7 percent success rate from the field. They're a top-10 team in terms of turnovers forced as well (15.7) and face a Nuggets squad sporting the second-lowest field-goal percentage (40.9) and committing the fourth-most turnovers (16.3) per contest.
Offense To Use
Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder : The Thunder have surprisingly given up just 96.5 points per game, but have faced the Sixers and Lakers among their four opponents. They're on the second game of a back-to-back and although there should be plenty of motivation while playing against their former teammate Kevin Durant, the fact remains that the Warriors average a league-leading 113.8 points and boast the third-highest field-goal percentage (48.6). The Thunder also turn the ball over at the highest clip in the league (18 per game), setting up what should be some fast-break opportunities for Golden State.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Warriors
Second game of a back-to-back: Celtics, Thunder
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Guards
Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL vs. IND ($9,000): Russell Westbrook ($12,300) is naturally an option in what should be a game with a bit of extra intensity, and Stephen Curry is mighty tempting at his lowest price in recent memory ($8,800). However, the Greek Freak gets the call at only $200 more than Curry and in an even better matchup, making him the potential best fantasy-point-per-dollar value at point guard Thursday. The Pacers have given up the eighth-most fantasy points (56.7), fifth-most points (25.9) and are tied with the Hawks for fourth-most assists (10.3) surrendered to point guards, with the latter figure particularly relevant in Antetokounmpo's case, given that dimes have given a nice boost to his fantasy-point totals over his last two games in particular. Antetokounmpo has also been between 44.5 and 53.75 fantasy points in all four of his games, providing the approximate 5x-6x return that renders him an appealing cash game or tournament play.
Zach LaVine MIN vs. DEN ($6,200): LaVine's price has seen a slight bump from the sub-$6K range he'd resided in during the first three games, but not enough to knock him out of making him an outstanding value play, particularly against the porous Nuggets defense. LaVine has tallied between 31.25 and 40.0 fantasy points in his first three outings on 52.2 percent shooting (24-of-46), including a 50 percent success rate (11-of-22) from three-point range. Furthermore, Denver currently surrenders the fourth-most fantasy points (51.7), points (26.8), rebounds (7.1) and field-goal percentage (48.4) to two-guards, while LaVine has the most field-goal attempts (46) and second-highest usage on the Timberwolves (27.1 percent).
J.R. SmithCLE vs. BOS ($4,300): While the majority of the Cavs' offense undeniably runs through the trio of LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, Smith is often capable of offering a solid return at his modest prices, and Thursday's matchup actually shapes up in his favor. Despite Avery Bradley's well-earned reputation for strong defensive play, the Celtics currently allow the sixth-most fantasy points (51.1) and fifth-most points (26.6) to two-guards, along with the second-most rebounds (7.3) and third-most three-pointers (3.5) per contest. And despite the heavy usage of the aforementioned Big Three, Smith actually checks in ahead of James with 44 field-goal attempts, good for third on the team, while having played the most minutes (122) on the Cavs as well. Given his price tag, as well as the fact that the Celtics' fourth-ranked defense against point guards in terms of points allowed (18.0) could funnel some more action Smith's way, he stands a good chance of returning the 5x value you're looking for in GPPs.
Forwards
Kevin Durant GS vs. OKC ($10,200): The headlines write themselves for Durant's matchup against Russell Westbrook and the rest of his former teammates Thursday, and the perennial All-Star should have plenty of motivation for a spectacular performance in front of his home crowd. Durant's already made that the norm during his brief tenure in a Warriors uniform, tallying 55.5 to 68.75 fantasy points in three of the first four games. The Thunder has been tough against small forwards through their first four games, but they haven't necessarily faced top-level competition at the position, by any means. Furthermore, although they've limited the overall scoring output surrendered, the Thunder are yielding the highest field goal percentage (51.4) to threes, which spells even more trouble than usual against Durant.
Gorgui Dieng MIN vs. DEN ($6,700): A player with the rebounding and ball-stuffing presence of Dieng down low against the Nuggets makes for a terrific mid-tier play. Denver has given up the most blocks (3.5) to power forwards, as well as the sixth-most boards (12.9) and second-most fantasy points (55.8). The Nuggets' second-worst field-goal percentage (40.9) should further help Dieng's rebounding prospects Thursday, providing him with an opportunity to extend a season-opening stretch of tallying 36.5 to 40.0 fantasy points over three games.
C.J. Miles IND at MIL ($3,600): Miles' fantasy point output over his last three games (19.75, 23 and 23, respectively) represents a 6x to near 8x return on his current price tag, making him an excellent play against a Bucks defense that gives up the second-most fantasy points (50.0), seventh-most points (21.9), most rebounds (11.2) and fifth-highest field-goal percentage (50.7) to small forwards. He's also received at least 20 minutes in each of the last three games, providing him ample opportunity to continue providing cost-effective value.
Centers
DeMarcus Cousins SAC at ORL ($10,200): Cousins has been mostly unstoppable over his first five games, with foul trouble serving as his biggest deterrent. Although he's been whistled out of two of those contests, he's still posted more than 40 fantasy points twice and more than 60 once. Additionally, despite the presence of Serge Ibaka down low, the Magic are still a bottom-10 team in the early going against power forwards in points (21.4), three-pointers (1.9) and field-goal percentage (46.4) allowed to the position. Cousins' shot attempts (80) and usage (37.3 percent) also blow away anyone else's in Sacramento, bolstering his already strong case.
Nikola Vucevic ORL vs. SAC ($6,400): Vucevic is a strong play on the other side of the Magic-Kings matchup, especially considering Cousins should keep Ibaka busy throughout the night. Vucevic has scored 30.5 to 52.5 fantasy points in three of four games, while the Kings have given up the fourth-highest field-goal percentage (56.9) to centers, along with robust figures of 47.2 fantasy points and 20.2 real points per contest. Vucevic also leads the Magic in usage (24.2) and is tied with Evan Fournier for the most shot attempts (50), essentially guaranteeing he'll be in a position to exploit Sacramento's vulnerabilities.
Kosta Koufos SAC at ORL ($3,400): Koufos is the third player from the Kings-Magic tilt that holds high appeal, with his near-minimum price looking extra appealing considering the Magic have given up the most fantasy points (64.6), most points (26.7), most rebounds (19.5), fifth-most blocks (3.1) and sixth-highest field-goal percentage (56.1) to centers. While Koufos' minutes have remained modest -- no more than 25 minutes over the first four games -- he's been efficient with them, scoring 18.75 to 24.5 fantasy points in three of those contests. Considering his price tag, that type of production would represent a fine return and allow you to spend up elsewhere in your lineup.
INJURY REPORT
For the latest news on injured players heading into the games, check out our Injury Updates page.
