Category Strategy: Injuries Impacting the Wire

Category Strategy: Injuries Impacting the Wire

This article is part of our Category Strategy series.

Before jumping into the category analysis, two important fantasy players are expected to return soon. There has been little news about T.J. Warren, but he posted an image of himself playing with the caption "soon". If Warren was dropped in your league, it may be time to pick him back up. Similarly, Jeremy Lin has also been dropped in many leagues, and he, too, is nearing a return. In almost all formats, I think it is now time to grab him.

The Warriors play five games this week, significantly increasing the value of every rotation player on their roster. The Clippers play only twice, sapping value from all players, especially since this is a particularly busy week for the NBA. Only five teams play three games – the Hawks, Kings, Nets, Raptors, and Thunder – while the remaining 23 teams all play four games. That makes this the most active week of the season, to date. In some formats, that adds value to players with games on Tuesday, Thursday, or Sunday, which are the quietest days this week. The 76ers and the Timberwolves play on all three of those days.

Points

Frank Kaminsky, Hornets
(Ownership: ESPN – 18%; Yahoo! – 31%; CBS – 61%)

Typically speaking, when players go a combined 1-of-15 from three over a two-game span, they don't get mentioned as an attractive waiver wire candidate – especially not for their ability to contribute points. But in the spirit of 2016's general disregard for established norms,

Before jumping into the category analysis, two important fantasy players are expected to return soon. There has been little news about T.J. Warren, but he posted an image of himself playing with the caption "soon". If Warren was dropped in your league, it may be time to pick him back up. Similarly, Jeremy Lin has also been dropped in many leagues, and he, too, is nearing a return. In almost all formats, I think it is now time to grab him.

The Warriors play five games this week, significantly increasing the value of every rotation player on their roster. The Clippers play only twice, sapping value from all players, especially since this is a particularly busy week for the NBA. Only five teams play three games – the Hawks, Kings, Nets, Raptors, and Thunder – while the remaining 23 teams all play four games. That makes this the most active week of the season, to date. In some formats, that adds value to players with games on Tuesday, Thursday, or Sunday, which are the quietest days this week. The 76ers and the Timberwolves play on all three of those days.

Points

Frank Kaminsky, Hornets
(Ownership: ESPN – 18%; Yahoo! – 31%; CBS – 61%)

Typically speaking, when players go a combined 1-of-15 from three over a two-game span, they don't get mentioned as an attractive waiver wire candidate – especially not for their ability to contribute points. But in the spirit of 2016's general disregard for established norms, here we are with Kaminsky as one of the most viable scorers available.

In the six games before he lost track of where the basket was, he averaged 15.0 points per game. On Saturday, he ended his dreadful mini-slump with a 21-point (8-16 FG), nine-rebound showing. If we just ignore those two bad games – something I'm sure Kaminsky would appreciate – then he has averaged 31.8 minutes since November 19. One thing to keep an eye on: compared to a normal big man, his field goal percentage is unusually low, while his free throw percentage is unusually high. Also of note: some of those games were played with Marvin Williams (knee) in the lineup, so even after he returns, Kaminsky could hold meaningful value.

Joe Harris, an "other suggestion" listed below, has been on a scoring streak the last three games. Though in his third season, he has very little NBA game experience, so it is tough to really understand his current or future value. Due to that uncertainty, he is listed as the last option, but he could be an interesting flier if you have an extra roster spot.

Other suggestions:Bojan Bogdanovic, Nets; Troy Daniels, Grizzlies; Joe Harris, Nets

Three-Pointers

Wayne Ellington, Heat
(Ownership: ESPN – 8%; Yahoo! – 21%; CBS – 14%)

Wayne Ellington is currently starting and playing significant minutes for the Heat in the absence of Dion Waiters (groin), Josh Richardson (ankle), and Justise Winslow (wrist). He is probably just a short term add, and is likely to lose almost all of his value as they return, but he is worth using until then. Ellington has made 10 threes in the past four games. In his expanded role, he is also helping out in points, steals, and field goal percentage, while doing very little in rebounds, steals, and assists. As the various Heat wings return, drop Ellington for one of them. Prioritize Winslow over Richardson, though I expect both to be worth owning.

Other suggestions:Patty Mills, Spurs; Ersan Ilyasova, 76ers; Robert Covington, 76ers

Assists

Andrew Harrison, Grizzlies
(Ownership: ESPN – 19%; Yahoo! – 30%; CBS – 64%)

Harrison generated some over-the-top enthusiasm last week when, in his first game as a starter for the injured Mike Conley (back), he scored 21 points in addition to four assists and four threes. That game was an anomaly. Harrison is a terrible shooter, converting at just a 32.0 percent clip from the field. If you need points, or cannot take a hit in field goal percentage, Harrison is not for you. What Harrison is good at is passing, especially when he is filling in as a point guard. The former Kentucky star is averaging 5.3 assists per game with Conley out. As long as he is starting at point guard, he'll provide value in that category.

Other suggestions:Deron Williams, Mavericks; Sergio Rodriguez, 76ers; Cory Joseph, Raptors
If you're really desperate:D.J. Augustin, Magic

Rebounds

Bismack Biyombo, Magic
(Ownership: ESPN – 20%; Yahoo! – 54%; CBS – 48%)

Since stepping into the starting lineup last week, Biyombo is averaging 32.6 minutes per game – he was only averaging 23.3 off the bench. Biyombo is a limited player, both in real life and fantasy, but almost any player averaging that many minutes will have fantasy value in one category or another. Biyombo made this article earlier this season for his rebounding and blocking abilities, but the bump in minutes warrants extra attention. He is being outplayed by now-backup Nikola Vucevic, but, as a team, the Magic are playing better with this new lineup. They have won three of their last four and lost the fourth by only one point. Since the change, Biyombo is averaging 8.8 rebounds and 1.0 block per game.

Other suggestions:Tyson Chandler, Suns; Kyle O'Quinn, Knicks; Al-Farouq Aminu, Trail Blazers; Cody Zeller, Hornets

Steals

Al-Farouq Aminu, Trail Blazers
(Ownership: ESPN – 18%; Yahoo! – 38%; CBS – 40%)

After a 13-game absence, Aminu returned to action Monday. In the seven games before getting hurt, he was averaging 23.9 minutes and 1.7 steals per game. Throughout his career, he has always been strong in steals. Even if there is some fall-off from his early season pace, accumulating steals is a big part of his game. He's a fantasy negative in scoring and field goal percentage, but in every other category he can be average or better for a small forward.

Other suggestions:Tony Allen, Grizzlies; Lucas Nogueira, Raptors; Troy Williams, Grizzlies; Luc Mbah a Moute, Clippers

Blocks

John Henson, Bucks
(Ownership: ESPN – 20%; Yahoo! – 48%; CBS – 65%)

Henson has long been one of the most talented rim protectors in the league – he has just always struggled to maintain a large enough role to stay on the fantasy radar. Coach Jason Kidd has fiddled with his center rotation a bit this season, and Henson recently returned to the starting lineup. Since this most recent adjustment, Henson is averaging 25.5 minutes– a lot for Henson – and 3.0 blocks per game. The extra workload has also allowed Henson to make a bigger impact in points and rebounds, as well, which increases his overall value.

Other suggestions:Lucas Nogueira, Raptors; Kyle O'Quinn, Knicks

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Rikleen
Rikleen writes the NBA column "Numbers Game," which decodes the math that underpins fantasy basketball and was a nominee for the 2016 FSWA Newcomer of the Year Award. A certified math teacher, Rikleen decided the field of education pays too well, so he left it for writing. He is a Boston College graduate living outside Boston.
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