This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defense To Avoid
Atlanta Hawks, vs. Miami Heat: A couple of recent uncharacteristic blowout losses have skewed the Hawks' defensive numbers a bit, but they got back on track (despite as seventh straight defeat) against the high-octane Thunder in their last game, surrendering a modest 102 points. They're desperate for a win and have the opportunity in front of them in the form of an injury-riddled Heat squad that will also be playing on the second game of a back-to-back. Miami is also scoring the third-least points (97.4) per game, furthering Atlanta's case for a bounce-back.
Offense To Use
Denver Nuggets, at Brooklyn Nets: There could be plenty of offensive fireworks on Wednesday's slate, considering the bottom three defenses in the league are in action. The worst of that bunch, the Nets, shape up as the most appealing to target. Brooklyn has given up the most points (114.4) and second-highest field goal percentage (47.2), while also facilitating even more scoring opportunities by committing the most turnovers per game (16.6). Denver also checks in as a top-10 team in points scored (106.2), and have scored 110 to 129 points in three of their last six contests.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Nuggets, Trail Blazers, Warriors
Second game of a back-to-back: Heat, Knicks, Pistons, Suns
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs. POR ($9,800): While James Harden ($11,400) naturally makes for an appealing play as well, there is the risk of a blowout in his game to contend with. Meanwhile, Antetokounmpo has been eclipsing the 50-fantasy-point mark with regularity, and has also been over 60 fantasy points in three of the last 10. He's shot an outstanding 58.5 percent over the last five games and is providing plenty of counting stats, as well, with double-digit rebounds in three of the last four, and averages of 5.0 assists, 2.8 steals and 2.6 blocks over the last five contests. He'll face off against a Blazers defense that's giving up the seventh-most points (23.7) to point guards on the season, and the ninth-most fantasy points (56.0) to the position over the last 10 games.
Sean Kilpatrick, BKN vs. DEN ($6,000): There's no shortage of appealing options at the mid-tier at guard Wednesday, including Goran Dragic ($7,300), C.J. McCollum ($6,800), Jeff Teague ($6,400) and Will Barton ($6,200), but Kilpatrick gets the call as the least expensive of the bunch and with the best matchup. The Nuggets have been a sieve against opposing two-guards this season, giving up the most fantasy points (48.4), points (25.2) and assists (4.8) to the position. Kilpatrick has demonstrated a near-60-fantasy-point ceiling this season, and has also gone over the 30-fantasy point mark in three of the last seven games as well. In what should be an up-in-pace game for the Nets, Kilpatrick could provide 5x-6x value, at a minimum.
Tim Hardaway, Jr., ATL vs. MIA ($3,400):Jodie Meeks ($3,000) is also an interesting option in this spot, but he's still on a minutes restriction since he's just three games into his season. Hardaway is a different story, however, as his playing time has been on an upswing. He's received 23 to 27 minutes in the last four contests, tallying 22.25 to 29.25 fantasy points in three of those games and double-digit scoring in all four. With his near-minimum price, a 7x-8x return the likes of what he's been providing is a possibility if he gets the necessary playing time, which seems likely, as he'll start in place of the injured Kent Bazemore (knee) for at least the next two contests.
Blake Griffin, LAC vs. GS ($8,600):LeBron James ($9,900) and Kevin Durant ($9,700) are naturally considerations in this spot as well, but I'm tabbing Griffin as the best potential value in terms of fantasy points per dollar. He's been heating up, posting 50.5 and 57.5 fantasy points, respectively, over the last two games, and over 50 in two others over the last 10, as well. The Warriors have been a bit vulnerable to power forwards this season as well, giving up the third-most rebounds (12.7), eighth-most points (20.9) and eighth-highest field-goal percentage (47.8) to the position. Griffin also has a solid track record against Draymond Green, having averaged 25.0 points (on 51.2 percent shooting), 8.0 rebounds and 5.5 assists in two games versus the Warriors last season.
Danilo Gallinari, DEN at BKN ($5,700): Gallinari is underpriced against one of the most porous defenses in the league, especially against small forwards. The Nets have given up the most points (23.6) to small forwards and are tied with the Lakers for the second-most fantasy points (47.2) surrendered to the position. What's more, they've yielded the most fantasy points to threes over the last five games (63.0), and the second-highest field-goal percentage (48.4) to them on the season. Gallinari went for 40.0 fantasy points in his most recent contest on Monday versus the Sixers and has not been under 23.75 fantasy points in the last 10.
Jeff Green, ORL vs. BOS ($3,700): There's a slew of good value at forward, including Jon Leuer ($4,500), Evan Turner ($4,300) and Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,200), but Green is particularly underpriced relative to recent production. The veteran has been producing off the bench for the Magic, posting 19.0-to-28.0 fantasy points in his last four. He'll face off against one of his old squads Wednesday, one which has surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points (46.3), fifth-most points (22.1) and second-most rebounds (9.0) to small forwards.
DeMarcus Cousins, SAC at DAL ($11,000): Cousins is the clear-cut option at center Wednesday, particularly considering he's scored 66.75-to-72.5 fantasy points in three of his last four, a fine return even factoring in his five-figure price tag. While the Mavs have been tough against power forwards—the position at which Cousins figures to most often be deployed — he's vanquised just about anyone put in front of him this season. His team-leading 37.8 percent usage rate guarantees that he'll be the focal point of the offense, making him worth the significant investment.
Brook Lopez, BKN vs. DEN ($6,400):Nikola Vucevic ($6,100) is another viable option in the mid-tier against the Celtics, but he's coming off the bench these days. Lopez is just $300 more and has been hot, scoring 35.5 to 50.5 fantasy points in three of the last four. He's been very aggressive offensively as well, putting up the most field-goal attempts (64) on the Nets over that span, 30 of which have come from three-point range. That's helped lead to the second-highest usage (25.6) on the team during that stretch, a trend that's likely to continue Wednesday. Additionally, the Nuggets have notably given up the second-highest field-goal percentage (56.1) to centers this season, which dovetails nicely with Lopez's increased offensive involvement in recent games.
Dwight Powell, DAL vs. SAC ($4,100):Bismack Biyombo ($4,600) is a consideration given his recent play, and for those really needing to save some cash at the position, Zaza Pachulia ($3,300) is a punt play in a game where he figures to see decent minutes against the Clippers bigs. However, Powell, who's essentially smack in the middle of those, gets the call given recent play and his present role. With Dirk Nowitzki (Achilles) sidelined indefinitely, Powell has played 24-to-32 minutes in his last three games, scoring 20.0 to 28.75 fantasy points in those contests. He's had the hot hand from the field as well, tallying a 62.5 percent success rate from the floor in the last five. The Kings have also given up the ninth-most fantasy points (48.3) to power forwards this season, furthering Powell's case.
INJURY REPORT
For the latest news on injured players heading into the games, check out our Injury Updates page.
