This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defense To Avoid: Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks: The Bulls have been playing some stingy defense, surrendering the fifth-fewest points (99.8) in the league. While the Bucks bring some decent firepower on offense, their best player, Giannis Antetokounmpo, will be fighting a right ankle sprain. Milwaukee also checks in as a bottom-10 unit in terms of turning the ball over (14.2 per game) and has been struggling of late, dropping four of the last five.
Offense To Use: Golden State Warriors vs. New York Knicks: The Pelicans and Blazers also have some very appealing individual matchups in their respective games as I'll detail below, but the Warriors should have little trouble lighting up the scoreboard against a Knicks defense that's yielded the sixth-most points (107.3). The Warriors remain the highest-scoring team in the NBA by a comfortable margin (117.8 points per game) and are at their best at home (123.9 points per game).
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Bulls, Bucks, Pelicans
Second game of a back-to-back: Pacers, Spurs
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Damian Lillard, POR at DEN ($8,800): Lillard had somewhat of a down game by his standards his last time out, tallying 34.0 fantasy points in a double-digit win over the Thunder on Tuesday. Thursday brings a terrific opportunity for a bounce-back courtesy of a Denver squad that's surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points (57.4) to point guards, along with the sixth-most rebounds (6.5), seventh-most assists (8.9) and second-most steals (2.7). Lillard is a relative bargain at a sub-$9k price, considering he's scored over 50 fantasy points four times in the last 10 games and over 40 in another three over that span. Plus, he's averaged a whopping 59.0 fantasy points against this same squad over their two previous meetings this season.
Jrue Holiday, NO vs. IND ($6,700): Holiday is listed as probable with a troublesome toe, but he's fully expected to take the court for a plus matchup against a Pacers squad that will be on the second night of a back-to-back. Indiana has given up the seventh-most fantasy points (55.3), fifth-most points (23.7), sixth-most assists (9.0), fifth-most steals (2.0) and most blocks (0.8) to point guards. Backcourt mate Tim Frazier is listed as doubtful with a wrist sprain, meaning that Holiday should receive a solid dose of minutes that would enable him to approximate the respective 35.25-and-38.0-fantasy point tallies he's posted over his last two games.
Langston Galloway, NO vs. IND ($3,800): Speaking of Tim Frazier's very likely absence Thursday, Galloway stands to be one of the main beneficiaries. With a host of injuries to the Pelicans backcourt in recent games, Galloway has averaged 25.4 minutes over his last six contests and has parlayed that playing time into an average of 22.6 fantasy points. He went off for 33.75 fantasy points against the Warriors on Tuesday over a 28-minute allotment, and could be in line for a similar opportunity Thursday.
Kristaps Porzingis, NY at GS ($8,000): Porzingis has averaged 42.0 fantasy points over his last six games, including tallies of 62.5 and 57.0 fantasy points, respectively, in his last two. To say he has the hot hand would be a sizable understatement, considering he's shot 52.6 percent (20-of-38) from the field and a jaw-dropping 87.5 percent (7-of-8) from three-point range against the Lakers and Suns in those contests. In other words, Western Conference basketball certain seems to agree with him, and he draws another fast-paced matchup Thursday against a Warriors squad that's given up the fourth-most fantasy points (52.8) to power forwards over the last five games, along with the fourth-most points (21.5), most rebounds (13.0) and ninth-highest field-goal percentage (47.4 %). Additionally, even though Porzingis sports a considerable size advantage over anyone he faces, it's particularly pronounced against Draymond Green, who stands just 6'7 as compared to Porzingis' 7'3.
Jabari Parker, MIL vs. CHI ($6,300): Outside of a 12.0-fantasy point dud against the Wizards on Saturday, Parker has been remarkably consistent, scoring 29.0 to 44.5 fantasy points in his seven other most recent games. He's shot 48.8 percent from the field and 38.1 percent from three-point range over the last five contests, and draws a matchup against a Bulls defense that's surrendered the fifth-highest field-goal percentage (48.3 %) to power forwards, along with 46.3 fantasy points per game. Parker has also been markedly better at home, averaging 35.4 fantasy points over 14 games at the Bradley Center this season.
Evan Turner, POR at DEN ($4,600): There's a plethora of affordable and reasonably viable options at forward Thursday despite the short slate, including starters Thaddeus Young ($4,800), Taj Gibson ($4,700), P.J. Tucker ($4,400), Glenn Robinson III ($3,900) and Marquese Chriss ($3,500), as well as super-subs Terrence Jones ($4,300), C.J. Miles ($4,000), Allen Crabbe ($3,800) and David Lee ($3,500). However, I'm giving the nod to Turner in what should be a fast-paced affair against a vulnerable Nuggets defense. Turner has averaged 22.8 fantasy points over the last six games, and has scored 26.25 to 31.5 fantasy points in three of his last four contests. He's also eclipsed the 30-fantasy point mark in two other games over the last 10, and has averaged 24.5 fantasy points (over 27.2 minutes) in two games against the Nuggets this season.
Anthony Davis, NO vs. IND ($11,500): Davis keeps our Pelicans theme going, as he shapes up as the clear-cut top frontcourt option Thursday. He shouldn't have too much trouble against Thaddeus Young and Myles Turner down low, considering the Pacers have surrendered the eighth-most fantasy points (47.9), second-most rebounds (12.7), sixth-most assists (3.2), fourth-most blocks (1.6), and even 1.6 three-pointers per contest to power forwards. Davis has posted four double-doubles in the last five, eclipsed the 60-fantasy point mark in three games over his last 10, and the 70-fantasy point mark in two others during that span. Even with a five-figure price tag, the upside and matchup make him worth the investment for those who can afford him.
Myles Turner, IND at NO ($6,000): Turner rattled off another 33.75 fantasy points against the Heat on Wednesday, his third straight game over the 30-fantasy point mark and fourth in the last five overall. His price remains highly affordable, and he draws a plum matchup against a Pelicans defense that has had no answer for centers this season. New Orleans has given up a league-worst 66.0 fantasy points to centers over the last five games and the second-most on the season (51.9), along with the most rebounds (17.0) and most assists (4.1) to the position as well. Given Turner's ability to fill out the stat sheet and generate fantasy points through a variety of ways, he shapes up as a great value play in the mid-tier Thursday.
Dewayne Dedmon, SA at PHO ($3,100): Al Jefferson ($3,100) is also an appealing option at this same price for the same reasons that make his teammate Myles Turner a strong play. However, Dedmon has also quietly been providing solid and consistent value at a near-minimum price, and with the Spurs on the second game of a back-to-back, he could be in for a few extra minutes in Pau Gasol's stead Thursday, considering the latter logged 35 minutes on Wednesday. Dedmon has been deployed more on the road by coach Gregg Popovich this season, with the 17.1 minutes he's averaging notably outpacing the 11.4 minutes per game he's received at home. That's led to an average of 19.2 fantasy points over his nine road tilts, and given a matchup against a Suns defense that's surrendered 56.0 fantasy points to centers over the last five games and the fifth-most points (20.9) to the position on the season, he could provide a 5x-6x return at his price.
INJURY REPORT
For the latest news on injured players heading into the games, check out our Injury Updates page.
