This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Defenses to avoid: Utah Jazz, at GSW: Call this the immovable object against the irresistible force. Over the last 10 games, the Jazz are number one in the NBA at limiting production to opposing centers, number one against opposing forwards, and number four against opposing guards. Now, since they're playing the Warriors in Golden State, presumably the Dubs' crazy offense will find a way to produce and likely win. However, the Warriors' players' prices are all based upon how dominant they can be, so if they're playing the best defense in the NBA right now, even their averages seem likely to decrease enough to not be the best values.
Offense to use: Charlotte Hornets, vs LAL: There is one team ranked in the bottom-5 against guards, forwards and centers over the past 10 games, and that's the Lakers (26th, 30th, and 27th respectively according to Rotowire's Defense vs. Position Stats). Kemba Walker, Nic Batum, and the rest of the Hornets players make better value plays than usual because of their great matchup.
Teams on Back-to-Backs:
First game: Cavaliers, Rockets, Grizzlies, Bucks, Pelicans, Trail Blazers, Kings, Jazz
Second game: Nuggets, Pacers
Chris Paul, LAC vs DEN ($9,200): If you can afford him, James Harden is the obvious pick here. Not only for the likely magnitude of his fantasy production (probably at least 60 fantasy points) but for his consistency. That said, if Harden is just too expensive, there are several other elite guards that have a reasonable likelihood of popping for 50 or more fantasy points themselves. Paul earns this spot by dint of the announcement that Blake Griffin is out with a knee injury. Paul has two games of 65+ fantasy points in the last month, and both were on days that Griffin sat. Plus, the Nuggets are on the second half of a B2B and they struggle against opposing point guards, ranking 27th in the DraftKings scoring format, according to Rotowire.
Avery Bradley, BOS at MEM ($6,000): Bradley has been consistently productive all season, with the ability to ramp up into elite territory. Over his last five games he has averaged 18.8 points, 6.2 boards, 2.8 treys, 2.4 assists, and 1.6 steals -- all numbers right around his season averages that make him the best shooting guard value, dollar for dollar, in his price range. Honorable mention goes to Nic Batum, who has a higher price point, but has a wonderful match-up against the Lakers on Tuesday.
T.J. McConnell, Phi vs NO ($3,700) or Manu Ginobili, SA at HOU ($3,600): Both of these are punt play types with a reasonable chance to hit 20 fantasy points and an upside of 30 fantasy points on a given day. McConnell is averaging 7.3 points, 8.0 assists, 4.3 boards and 2.0 steals in 26.1 minutes over his last four games (three of which came with Sergio Rodriguez in the lineup). Ginobili is riskier, with four games between 22 and 30.25 fantasy points but four games under 18 fantasy points in his last eight outings.
LeBron James, CLE at MIL ($9,600): James has been his usual stellar self of late, averaging 30 points, 8.8 assists, 7.5 boards, 2.8 steals, 2.0 treys and 0.8 blocks in his last four games. In addition, Kevin Love didn't make the trip so James may have to do more to carry the load. Finally, the last time James and the Cavs saw the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo destroyed them, which could provide some added motivation.
Kristaps Porzingis, NY vs IND ($7,800): Porzingis has priced himself up almost to the elite tier, but he's playing at such a high level that he's worth it. Porzingis is averaging 21.7 points, 8.8 boards, 2.0 blocks, 1.8 treys, 1.4 assists and 1.2 steals in his last five games, and that's including a disastrous performance in a blowout loss to the Warriors. He also has a great Tuesday matchup against a Pacers defense that ranks 28th in the NBA against opposing power forwards over the last 10 games.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, BKN at TOR ($3,600): Another punt play type, Hollis-Jefferson has scored between 15 and 29 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games. However, he also is a young talent on a bad team, and there has been buzz lately that the coaching staff likes the way that he has been playing in the last three to four games. That's the kind of combo that could pay off with a minutes/role bump on any given night.
DeMarcus Cousins, SAC vs POR ($11,200): Cousins and Anthony Davis both average more than 52 fantasy points per game and have excellent matchups on Tuesday. Cousins earns this spot by way of health, as Davis has had to leave several games recently with injuries, while Cousins has been more robust. Plus, he's got a home game against a motivated Trail Blazers team that just got blown out by the Warriors and can't defend opposing bigs (they rank 27th against opposing centers over the past 10 games).
Myles Turner, IND at NY ($6,300): Turner has averaged 17.3 points, 7.0 boards, 3.0 blocks, 1.1 assists and 1.0 treys over his last seven games and has a great match-up against a Knicks defense that is 26th in the NBA against opposing centers over its last 10 games.
Mason Plumlee, POR ($5,700): Plumlee had a poor outing last game against a Warriors team that beat them by 45 points, but in the three games prior, he averaged 18.3 points, 7.0 boards, 4.0 assists, 2.3 blocks and 1.3 steals. On Tuesday he faces a Kings defense that struggles against opposing centers, with his biggest risk being foul trouble if he has to spend much time 1-on-1 against DeMarcus Cousins.
