This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
The Pelicans' recently improved defense should make daily gamers wary of the Hawks on Thursday. They still aren't on the level of the Spurs, who make the Nuggets unappealing.
On the other end of the spectrum, lots of bad defenses play, and scores could get high – both in real life and fantasy. The Suns-Mavericks and Lakers-Blazers games feature four of the seven-worst defenses in the league, and all could be high-scoring, offense-only bonanzas. The Pistons D has also struggled recently, giving Hornets players a boost. Finally, the Nuggets face the Spurs. The Nuggets have consistently ranked among the worst defenses this season, and their recent rediscovery that Nikola Jokic is probably their best all around player has only made their defense worse – even if their offense has flourished since the finding.
GUARDS
Eric Bledsoe, PHO at DAL ($31): Bledsoe is rolling, and the Mavericks aren't good enough to get in his way. He is chronically underpriced, scoring at least 35 points in six of his last seven, and 10 of his last 14. The games he came in under that line? Hosting the Spurs, visiting Russell Westbrook, facing Patrick Beverley and visiting the Spurs. Those are tough defensive matchups, and Bledsoe did enough to keep daily lineups afloat in three of them. Deron Williams, Seth Curry and Wesley Matthews are of a slightly lesser caliber.
Seth Curry, DAL vs. PHO ($11): Curry has double-digit points and at least 22 fantasy points in four of his last five games. It's been more than a month since he scored fewer than 11 fantasy points. Over his last 11, he has played at least 22 minutes every night, averaging 11.2 points, 3.4 assists, and 2.3 threes in 25.5 minutes per game. That's a strong baseline of production, and Curry will be taking part in one of the aforementioned no-defense-allowed contests.
Other suggestions: Buddy Hield, ATL at NO ($10); Nick Young, LAL at POR ($16); Kemba Walker, CHA at DET ($36)
Guard to Avoid
Dennis Schroder, ATL at NO ($27): Schroder has been inconsistent lately, so it's hard to know what you're going to get. With the Pelicans' defense surging and the Hawks on the second night of a back-to-back, the odds of that inconsistency turning harmful seems high. The Pelicans have some weaknesses, such as their poor rebounding, but Schroder is an infrequent rebounder and is not positioned to take advantage of this shortcoming.
FORWARDS
Julius Randle, LAL at POR ($27): I hate chasing yesterday's points, but sometimes the best options happened to have a career night their last time out. Randle's triple-double Tuesday was just the best and latest example of the path he's blazing since missing two games while on paternity leave. While he was out, his primary backup, Larry Nance (knee), went down. In the five games since, Randle is crushing his earlier numbers, improving in literally every category that impacts daily games. And since his matchup Thursday is one in which someone turned the "defense" settings to "off," he becomes an even more attractive option.
Jon Leuer, DET vs. CHA ($17): It's not completely clear what happened to Leuer on New Year's Day. For eight previous games, Leuer had tallied at least 20 fantasy points, relying mostly on strong scoring and rebounding totals. Then, for one night only, he bombed against the undermanned Heat, scoring two points and grabbing three rebounds. Whatever the cause, he returned to form two days later against a better and healthier Pacers squad, so there is no need for worry. When he isn't randomly forgetting to grab the ball and put it through the round metal cylinder for a day, he is a consistent small-but-steady profit machine. The Hornets are a below-average opponent, and Leuer has put up good numbers against many above-average frontcourts during the past three weeks.
Other suggestions: Trevor Booker, BKN at IND ($22); P.J. Tucker, PHO at DAL ($10)
Forward to Avoid
Paul Millsap, ATL at NO ($36): I'm generally avoiding Hawks on Thursday, and I'm staying farther away from Millsap than Schroder. Millsap will probably spend a lot of the game matching up against the heart of the Pelicans, Anthony Davis. Millsap is an excellent and under-appreciated player, but he is not on Davis' level, as the latter is taller, longer, faster and more athletic. While the Pelicans are a bad rebounding team, most of their difficulties come in the backcourt, and they are very close to average against bigs. Millsap has performed well recently, but not well enough to ignore the opponent.
CENTERS
Myles Turner, IND vs. BKN ($27): Turner's salary is completely fair, which is kind of a bummer. But Turner and the Pacers face the Nets, which is kind of like steroids for box scores. They run at the fastest pace in the league and they are one of the worst defenses. They are the worst rebounding team over the past five games, and they rank among the league leaders in opponent threes. Brook Lopez is a good player, but he can't keep up with Turner along the perimeter.
Dewayne Dedmon, SA at DEN ($10): This is not a great night for discount centers – you're better off saving money elsewhere. But if you insist on saving on your big man, Dedmon has the best matchup of the night. The Nuggets are even worse than the Nets, defensively, and committing to Jokic has only magnified their blemishes. Nuggets opponents are first in points per possession, by a big margin, and fourth in field-goal percentage. The Nuggets run at a fast pace, which allows their opponents to lead the league in scoring by more than three points per game. The Spurs are so much better than the Nuggets that backups like Dedmon should see plenty of court time, and he averages close to one fantasy point per minute.
Other suggestions: Tyson Chandler, PHO at DAL ($15); Steven Adams, OKC at HOU ($19); Rudy Gobert, UTA at TOR ($31)
Center to Avoid
Anthony Davis, NO vs. ATL ($55): Whether Davis is guarded by Millsap or Dwight Howard doesn't make too big of a difference, as both are skilled enough to cause him problems. While Davis is heavily favored to win a war against either, he's unlikely to do so without losing many skirmishes along the way. Additionally, his price is gigantic. In terms of strict fantasy points earned per dollars spent, the highest cost options are usually not good deals. This price requires roughly 60 fantasy points to profit, a figure Davis has reached only once in his last nine games.
