This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Defenses to avoid: Dallas Mavericks, vs POR: The Mavericks have been surprisingly stout on defense this season, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to guards, the fourth-fewest to forwards, and the tenth-fewest to centers, according to the DraftKings scoring format. The Trail Blazers and Mavericks just played on Friday, and the offenses of both teams were reasonable, but on a Tuesday with only three games the Mavericks are the toughest matchup on the board.
Offense to use: Charlotte Hornets, vs BKN: The Mavericks against the Trail Blazers is also a good matchup, but the Nets have been the worst defense in the NBA this season. They have allowed the most fantasy points to guards, the most to forwards, and the fourth-most to centers. Thus, pretty much every Hornets player will have a strong chance to meet or exceed value Tuesday.
Teams on Back-to-Backs:
First game: Clippers, Thunder, Raptors
Second game: Mavericks
Kemba Walker, CHA vs BKN ($8,500): Walker gets this slot despite the elephant…err, beard in the room, as James Harden is absolutely likely to have the best fantasy output on the night. But Harden also costs almost $5K more than any other player, and that's a lot of money. Thus, the bet here is that Walker is healthy again after battling illness last week and ready to take advantage of his matchup with a Nets defense that has allowed more fantasy points to point guards than any team in the NBA.
Wesley Matthews, DAL vs POR ($5,800): Matthews has been productive in four of his five games since returning from injury, averaging 16.8 points with 6.0 boards, 3.4 assists and 1.8 treys per contest. On Tuesday he faces his former team, the Trail Blazers, who he just lit up for 27 points, six boards and three assists in their last meeting last Friday.
Sean Kilpatrick, BKN at CHA ($4,900): Kilpatrick has been up-and-down all season, but has been "up" over the last couple of games. He has averaged 18 points, five boards and two assists in 29 minutes off the bench in his last two games. With Caris Levert set to sit out again Tuesday, Kilpatrick should continue to get extended run. He matches up with a Hornets defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Nicolas Batum, CHA vs BKN ($7,600): Batum has been a bit more up-and-down than usual recently with a couple of games in the low-20s in terms of fantasy points, but his all-around game fits well in the DraftKings format because he is reasonably likely to get bonus points for 3-pointers, double-digit rebounds, and/or double-digit assists in any given game. He has a great matchup on Tuesday against a Nets defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to small forwards and the second-most to shooting guards this season.
Serge Ibaka, ORL at HOU ($6,200): Ibaka is coming off of one of his worst games of the season. Scoring only five points, with two boards, two assists and two turnovers on Saturday in Atlanta. He was averaging just over 43 fantasy points in the three games leading up to that one, though, and makes a good bounce-back candidate against a Rockets defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to power forwards over the last 10 games.
Ryan Anderson, HOU vs ORL ($5,000): This is the riskier play among $5K power forwards, as Trevor Booker has been more consistently productive in recent games than Anderson. Anderson is coming off of consecutive games in which he couldn't buy a bucket, going 4-for-19 overall and 3-for-15 from 3-point range on his way to an average of 11.3 fantasy points, despite playing 33.5 minutes per game. However, in the two games before that, Anderson knocked down 16-of-30 attempts from the field (and 11-of-21 from downtown) en route to averages of 45 fantasy points per game. On Tuesday, Anderson faces one of his many former teams, the Magic, who allow the eighth-fewest fantasy points overall but the sixth-most 3-pointers (Anderson's specialty) to power forwards this season.
Brook Lopez, BKN at CHA ($7,000): Lopez is usually a safe, consistent option as long as he plays. Since his last rest day, he has averaged 18.4 points, 5.8 boards, 1.6 blocks and 0.8 steals over five games. His Tuesday opponent, the Hornets, have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to centers this season and may be without starting center Cody Zeller (quad).
Nikola Vucevic, ORL at HOU ($6,800): Vucevic is productive overall, but his production can fluctuate from moderate (27 fantasy points over last two games) to dominant (46 fantasy points in the three games before that). He faces a Rockets team that allows the fourth-most fantasy points to centers this season.
Clint Capela, HOU vs ORL ($5,300): Capela has been playing solid ball per-minute since his return from injury, but up until two games ago he was only getting around 20-to-22 minutes per game. Over his last two games he has averaged about 10 more minutes played, and translated that to 32.5 fantasy points per game. The Magic have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to centers this season.
