This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Defense to avoid: Utah Jazz, vs BOS: The Jazz give up the fewest fantasy points to guards and forwards, and the third-fewest to centers, according to the DraftKings scoring system. Their opponents, the Celtics, still have the ability to produce at an individual level but have the odds against them to outperform their usual efforts.
Offenses to Use: Houston Rockets, vs PHO: The Suns are weak across the board defensively, allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to guards, the fifth-most to forwards, and the eighth-most to centers. On Saturday night, they will be facing a Rockets team led by former coach and offensive guru Mike D'Antoni, with offensive machine James Harden at the point. It should be an up-tempo game that just leads to more fantasy scoring opportunities than usual.
Teams on Back-to-Backs:
First game: None
Second game: Nuggets, Warriors, Pacers, Heat, Bucks, Suns
James Harden, HOU vs Suns ($12,900): Harden's price is so out of control that if he only reaches his absurd average of 60.7 fantasy points he still likely isn't worth it. However, if you can get him on one of his "OK, that's not fair" nights then he can be worth every bit and more of his super-max tag. Harden has three games in his last seven outings that qualify, scoring between 71.5 and a whopping 97.75 fantasy points in those games. Saturday shapes up as one of those potential video game efforts for Harden, as he faces a Suns defense that allows the seventh-most fantasy points to guards and are themselves on the second half of a back-to-back.
Kyrie Irving, CLE vs DEN ($8,400): Irving has scored more than 20 points in three straight games after sitting out last Saturday against the Knicks, averaging 26.7 points with 5.3 assists and 2.0 combined steals/blocks in tha span On Saturday, he faces a terrible Nuggets perimeter defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Jameer Nelson, DEN at CLE ($4,400): Nelson has had some good runs as the starting point guard for the Nuggets in place of Emmanuel Mudiay, but hadn't been doing much with it over the last couple of weeks until Friday, when he produced a 16-point, 12-assist double-double against the Knicks. Mudiay has missed three games in a row with back spasms, and will not play Saturday when the Nuggets face a Cavaliers defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Kevin Durant, GS at OKC ($9,700): Durant returns to Oklahoma City on Saturday for the first time sense leaving the team this summer. He has played the Thunder twice this season, both times at home, and averaged 39.5 points, 9.5 boards, 2.5 assists and 2.0 blocks in those games.
James Johnson, MIA at PHI ($6,100): Johnson has been over 30 fantasy points in six of his last eight games, and exploded on Friday night for 26 points, eight boards, two assists, three blocks and a steal against the Nets. On Saturday, he matches up with the Suns, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to power forwards this season and will be without Tyson Chandler.
Dario Saric, PHI vs MIA ($4,600): Saric has averaged 14.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists and a steal in 27.3 minutes over his last seven games. He is coming off consecutive 20-plus point scoring efforts, including 24 points, eight boards, three steals and an assist in his last outing against the Magic. He now has a tougher matchup, though, against a Heat defense that allows the fifth-fewest fantasy points to power forwards this season.
Nikola Jokic, DEN at CLE ($9,000): Before Friday's game, in recommending Jokic I said "he had another strong game in his last outing and appears to be ramping towards full strength." He then went out and scored a career-high 40 points with nine boards, five assists and two steals to prove that strength. On Saturday, he faces a Cavs defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to centers this season, but if he's at his best he's too big and skilled for Tristan Thompson to contain.
Rudy Gobert, UTA vs BOS ($7,600): Gobert has been a force in the paint all season, ramping up even more so over the past several weeks. In his last 13 games, he is averaging 15.6 points, 13.8 boards, 1.5 assists and 3.0 combined blocks/steals. On Saturday, he faces an average Celtics interior defense that has allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to centers this season.
Alex Len, PHO at HOU ($3,000): Len was suspended on Friday night, but returns to the Suns on a night when Tyson Chandler will not play due to an ankle injury. Len has averaged 9.8 points, 9.5 boards and 1.9 blocks in 10 games as a starter this season and he faces a Rockets defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to centers this season.
