This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
There are five games on Thursday night, making this a relatively sparse schedule but with enough options to easily differentiate your team. The position with the most power on Thursday is point guard, with Russell Westbrook in play and a lot of second-tier elite options going as well. Small forward is the next deepest position, with LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard at the high end and several strong value plays deeper down. Shooting guard is clearly the weakest position of the night, which can make it a position to either punt on for the night, or one where your team could stand out if you identify a potential big scorer from the morass. All in all, should be a fun night.
Russell Westbrook, OKC vs SAN ($13,300): Westbrook is averaging 62 fantasy points with a median value of 62.5 over his last 10 games, which sets that as a reasonable expected value for him. On Thursday, he faces a Spurs defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing point guards, and that held him to 51.2 fantasy points when they played in January, so the argument could be that he would be expected to be held under his expected value. But the other argument could be made that the Thunder are desperate and the Spurs are great, so Westbrook could be expected to go "over" to keep them in the game. Where you come down on that debate likely determines whether it's worth it to make the big investment on Westbrook.
C.J. McCollum, POR vs PHI ($7,000): McCollum is the closest thing to a sure-thing there is among shooting guards on this sparse Thursday, but the problem is that his expected value (mean 31.1 fantasy points, median 30.3) is a bit low for his price tag. Nevertheless, he also has a great matchup on Thursday against a 76ers defense that has yielded the fifth-most fantasy points to shooting guards over the last 10 games, so he may be the safest shooting guard on the board.
Tyler Ulis, PHO vs LAL ($4,500): Ulis has averaged 25.4 fantasy points in the five games that he has been playing a larger role, a solid expected value for his price tag. On Thursday, he faces a Lakers defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to point guards over the last ten games, which gives him a good chance to go "over" on his average.
Kawhi Leonard, SA at OKC ($9,600): Leonard is battling LeBron James for the tile of most productive forward of late. But while LeBron edges him over the last 10 games with an average of 52.5 fantasy points vs, 48.3 for Leonard, it's very close considering that Leonard's price tag is solidly lower. Leonard is also coming off a rest day, and has scored between
Dario Saric, PHI at POR ($7,400): Saric has averaged 35.2 fantasy points over his last 10 games, with only one poor outing. His average is very similar to Blake Griffin's 38.4 fantasy points over that stretch, but Saric has a much lower price and has played better over the last few games. Saric also faces a much less imposing defense on Thursday, going up against a Trail Blazers team that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to power forwards on the season.
Maurice Harkless, POR vs PHI ($4,800): Harkless has averaged 26.9 fantasy points over his past six games with Evan Turner out, with a minimum of 21.8 and a maximum of 36.9. This is a nice, relatively low-variance average for a player at his price point, and he has the upside of facing a 76ers team that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to small forwards over the last five games.
Andre Drummond, DET vs CLE ($7,900): Drummond has averaged 34.3 fantasy points with a median of 36.2 over his last 10 games, solid value but a bit low for his price tag. He does have a good matchup on Thursday against a Cavaliers defense that has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to centers in the last 10 games.
Jusuf Nurkic, POR vs PHI ($6,500): Nurkic's price still hasn't fully caught up to his production. His average over his six starts in Portland is 33.9 fantasy points, almost identical to Drummond's average but at a much lower price. Nurkic also has a great match-up Thursday against a 76ers defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to centers in the last 10 games.
Alan Williams, PHO vs LAL ($5,900): Williams, much like Jusuf Nurkic, is just outperforming his price tag right now. In his last six games he has averaged 32.6 fantasy points, with a max of 45.5. On Thursday he faces a Lakers team allowing the second-most fantasy points to centers over the last 10 games.
