This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Defenses to avoid: Indiana Pacers, at NYK: There are no dominant defenses going on Tuesday night, but there are several really bad ones and/or really good offenses. The Pacers are the best example of a solid defense against a underwhelming offense. The Pacers have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to centers, the fourth-fewest to power forwards, and the fifth-fewest to guards over the last 10 games. There one area of recent weakness on defense has been small forward, which could bode well for Carmelo Anthony. Other than that, they should do as well as any other defense going on Tuesday against their particular opponents.
Offense to use: Oklahoma City Thunder, at BKN: The Nets have been the worst defense in the NBA all season. They play at a fast pace, and they will be trying to slow down a team led by the single-most dynamic offensive threat in the league. It's possible that this game is a blowout, but if it is in Brooklyn and the Nets do have a tendency to be a bit scrappy at home, so perhaps they can keep this close enough for the Thunder to live up to their offensive potential on Tuesday.
Teams on Back-to-Backs:
First game: Pistons, Pacers, Pelicans, Trail Blazers
Second game: none
Damian Lillard, POR at NO ($8,800): The ever-present elephant in the room is that Russell Westbrook is averaging 74 fantasy points over his last five games, and faces the most fantasy-friendly defense in the NBA on Tuesday. The problem is his price takes more than a quarter of your team salary. The argument can be made that it's worth it, and I'll even endorse that idea, but here let's talk about a great option that's more affordable. Lillard has averaged 47.4 fantasy points over his last nine games, with a min of 37.5 and a max of 64.25. He is trying to play the Trail Blazers into the playoffs, and has a good match-up against a Pelicans defense that is built inside-out and has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to point guards in their last 10 games.
Victor Oladipo, OKC at BKN ($6,300): Oladipo has steadily increased his minutes and improved his fantasy production in each of the three games since he returned from injury, going from 26 minutes and 23.8 fantasy points in his first outing up to 38 minutes and 35.5 fantasy points on Saturday against the Jazz. On Tuesday, Oladipo faces a terrible Nets defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to shooting guards in the last 10 games.
Courtney Lee, NY vs IND ($4,900): Lee is going up against a relatively tough Pacers unit as mentioned above, but he's a high-variance player that still has the ability to pop on any given night. In his last 10 games, he has six with more than 28 fantasy points including two in the upper-30s/mid-40s range. In a tournament, especially, it is often better to take a risk with a high-variance player that can put a significant number on the board than a low-variance, consistent producer with no upside.
Paul George, IND at NY ($8,200): George has quietly put together a strong stretch, averaging 47 fantasy points in his last five games with a min of 35 and a max of 57.5. On Tuesday, he faces a Knicks defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to small forwards in the last 10 games.
Kristaps Porzingis, NY vs IND ($7,200): As laid out above, the Pacers have been solid against power forwards and centers of late. But Porzingis is a unique beast, in that he is able to contribute so many fantasy points through his defense that it is hard to depress his output when he's healthy. He has looked very healthy in his last couple of games, averaging 46.5 fantasy points on the strength of a whopping 11 blocked shots.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, BKN vs OKC ($4,300): Hollis-Jefferson is another one of those high-variance players with upside for a low price. In his last 10 games, Jefferson has five games of 28 fantasy points or more and four games over 30, including a 14 points, 11 rebounds double-double in his last outing. On Tuesday, he faces a Thunder defense that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to power forwards in the last 10 games.
Anthony Davis, NO vs POR ($10,500): Davis has been the senior member thus far in the new partnership with DeMarcus Cousins. After having to leave the previous game early with a bruised wrist, Davis reasserted himself in a major way with 46 points, 21 rebounds and three assists in his last outing. On Tuesday, he faces a Trail Blazers defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to power forwards this season.
Andre Drummond, DET at CLE ($7,600): Drummond has averaged 42.4 fantasy points in his last five games, bolstered in part by a 20 point, 16 rebound, four assist performance against his Tuesday opponent the Cavs in their last meeting, less than a week ago.
Richaun Holmes, PHI at GS ($4,900): Staying with the low-price, high-variance, good-upside theme of affordable players, Holmes has three games over 32 fantasy points in his last 10 games with two in the upper-30s/lower-40s range. He has played well in his last couple of games, and he's a bit more athletic than Jahlil Okafor which could get him more run on Tuesday against a Warriors team that likes to go small.
