This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Saturday's six-game evening slate features 10 teams currently in playoff position, so expect plenty of high-quality basketball. Though many of these teams have found success this season, that doesn't mean they don't have weaknesses that can be exploited. The players in best position to capitalize on those weaknesses make up the night's top value plays.
GUARDS
Denzel Valentine, CHI at UTA ($10): Valentine has averaged 9.8 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.6 made 3-pointers in 25 minutes per game over his past five heading into the weekend, and he should get a massive bump in usage and playing time with Dwyane Wade (elbow) ruled out for the season after Wednesday's loss to Memphis. Utah's stingy defense is a rough matchup, but this enhanced role justifies using the rookie at the minimum price nonetheless, especially since the Jazz have allowed the seventh-highest field goal percentage to shooting guards (44.3 percent) this season.
Chris Paul, LAC vs. CLE ($44): Cleveland has surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to point guards, and Paul will look to push his team's advantage at the position even further if Kyrie Irving (knee) is unable to play opposite him. Lack of playing time shouldn't be an issue in what is expected to be a close game regardless of Irving's status, and a healthy CP3 is still among the best all-around fantasy contributors out there.
Guard to Avoid
Mike Conley, MEM vs. SA ($36): Conley has been on a tear of late, but don't be surprised if his momentum comes to a halt Saturday. The Spurs have been the second-stingiest defense against point guards from a fantasy perspective while holding them to just 20.4 points per game, and they should be able to limit Conley's scoring as they continue trying to chase down the vulnerable Warriors for the top spot in the Western Conference. There are so many strong alternatives available that the poor matchup alone should be sufficient to dissuade owners from using such a sizable chunk of their salary on Conley. With Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler both out, Will Barton will likely top Conley's output at the guard position for half the price.
FORWARDS
Khris Middleton, MIL at GS ($26): While Middleton's price is slowly creeping up, it's still hanging well below market value for the swing man's production now that he's healthy. He spent his six February appearances shaking off the cobwebs after being out until then with a hamstring injury, but he has averaged 30.0 fantasy points per game in 10 appearances since then. With his playing time back over 30 minutes in all but one of those games, Middleton is set up to continue outperforming his price against the Kevin Durant-less Warriors.
Juancho Hernangomez, DEN vs. HOU ($10): While Barton is the obvious beneficiary of Gallinari and Chandler's absences, Hernangomez also saw an increase in playing time and production in the first game sans both small forwards. The rookie registered 18.0 fantasy points in 26 minutes Thursday against the Clippers, building on the 22.2 in 19 minutes he managed Monday against the Lakers with just Chandler missing. His upside goes beyond those two performances, as Hernangomez should have no problem obliterating his minimum price against a Rockets team that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to small forwards.
Forward to Avoid
Jimmy Butler, CHI vs. UTA ($48): Don't try to get too cute here. While Wade's absence creates more available minutes for Bulls swing men, it's not like Butler is going to significantly increase his season average of 37 minutes per game. Butler has come up short of 30.0 fantasy points in three of his past five games, which doesn't bode well for his chances of living up to his exorbitant price against the team that has been most proficient at defending small forwards.
CENTERS
Mason Plumlee, DEN vs. HOU ($17): Plumlee should continue to see his playing time swell given how much success the Nuggets have found with him and Nikola Jokic sharing the court. He has topped 30 minutes in four of the past six contests, and the rise in minutes has coincided with an average of 32.1 fantasy points per game over that span. Expect that success to continue against a Rockets team that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to centers.
Zaza Pachulia, GS vs. MIL ($10): Pachulia should get some extra run against a Bucks team that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to centers. He has eclipsed 20 minutes three times in the past four games, and managed 26.5, 30.4 and 28.5 fantasy points in those three contests, respectively.This strong combination of matchup and momentum makes the minimum-priced center a classic, low-risk, high-reward play.
Center to Avoid
Marcin Gortat, WAS at CHA ($19): Charlotte is the worst team in action from a standings perspective, but that doesn't mean Gortat will find success. He has been slumping for a long period now, coming up short of 20.0 fantasy points in four of his past five games, as well as six of the past nine. The four alternatives at his position priced between $17 and $19 have all been playing better of late, so any of them make stronger options without reducing the ability to spend elsewhere.
