This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Defense to avoid: Utah Jazz, at CHI. Three of the stingiest defenses in the league are going on Saturday night in the Jazz, Spurs and Grizzlies. But the Grizzlies have actually slipped of late, allowing the most fantasy points in the NBA to guards in the last 10 games, which disqualified them. And the Jazz have been just a bit better of late than the Spurs, allowing the 12th-fewest fantasy points to guards, the second-fewest to guards, and the eighth-fewest to centers over the last 10 games.
Offenses to Use: Denver Nuggets, vs HOU. There are a few reasons for this pick. For one, the two starting forwards for the Nuggets (Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari) are both out, which means that the other players on the team have potential above their price tags. Plus, the Rockets are one of the most potent offenses and play at one of the fastest paces in the league, which means that the Nuggets players will have to overachieve to have any chance to stay with them.
Teams on Back-to-Backs:
First game: Cavaliers, Trail Blazers, Spurs, Kings
Second game: Bulls, Rockets, Bucks, Wizards
Chris Paul, LAC vs CLE ($8,200): Paul has produced between 46 and 55 fantasy points in three of his last four games, which is the level that he'll need to maintain moving forward for the Clippers to have a shot at home court advantage in the playoffs. On Saturday, Paul faces old friend LeBron James and a Cavaliers defense that has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to point guards in the last 10 games.
Will Barton, DEN vs HOU ($6,900): Barton is a DFS stats monster when called upon, and with both Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari injured he was called upon on Thursday. He produced 35 points, five rebounds, seven treys, three assists and a steal in 36 minutes. On Saturday, he will be in a similar role with Chandler and Gallinari still out, against a Rockets defense that has allowed the most fantasy points (by a lot) to small forwards in the last 10 games.
Jamal Murray, DEN vs HOU ($4,900): Murray has produced between 20 and 30 fantasy points in seven of his last nine games, and seems to be edging towards a potential breakout performance. That may or may not come on Saturday, but the Nuggets will have to generate a lot of points to keep up with a Rockets team that leads the league in many offensive categories.
LeBron James, CLE at LAC ($11,000): James has produced 60 or more fantasy points in seven of his last 10 games, including in his last game against an elite Jazz defense, with a floor of 46 fantasy points in that stretch. On Saturday, James locks horns with a below-average Clippers wing defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to small forwards this season.
Marvin Williams, CHA vs WAS ($6,500): Williams had scored between 40 and 48 fantasy points in four straight games, before falling off with a 17 fantasy point effort against the Pacers on Wednesday. He is a good candidate to bounce back on Saturday, against a Wizards defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to power forwards this season.
Nikola Mirotic, CHI vs UTA ($4,400): Mirotic had completely fallen out of the Bulls rotation for three straight games, but has now played in three straight and is producing some of his best numbers of the season. While the Jazz are an elite defense, a player at such a low price capable of averaging 35 fantasy points over his last three games is still good value.
Nikola Jokic, DEN vs HOU ($10,700): Jokic has produced between 45 and 61 fantasy points in six of his last seven games, and is being heavily relied upon right now with the other two starting frontcourt players for the Nuggets sidelined. Jokic also has an excellent match-up on Saturday, against a Rockets defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to centers this season.
Draymond Green, GS vs MIL ($8,000): Green has stepped up since Kevin Durant went down, averaging 41.1 fantasy points in his last four games with a floor of 30.3 and a ceiling of 62 fantasy points over his last nine outings. On Saturday, he faces a Bucks defense that has allowed the 17th-most fantasy points to power forwards this season.
Mason Plumlee, DEN vs HOU ($6,000): Plumlee has been starting at power forward for the Nuggets, with both Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler injured, but he was playing well even before the injuries. He has averaged 34.8 fantasy points in his last five games, with a min of 21.8 and a max of 40.5 fantasy points in that stretch. On Saturday, he faces a Rockets defense that has been average against power forwards but terrible against centers this season.
