This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Looking at Thursday's short five-game slate, two games demand attention. The Suns visit the Nets in a matchup of two of the three worst teams in the league. In a surprising twist, the Suns' per-possession defense has approached league average over the past 10 days despite benching almost everyone old enough to rent a car. Their pace has risen as their defense has improved, so they are still a favorable fantasy opponent. The Nets are also one of the fastest teams in the league, but they remain a bottom-third defense despite a handful of recent wins. This is a game for fantasy managers to exploit.
On the flip side is the Spurs hosting the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies' metrics are bad lately, but they tend to elevate their play against good teams. They are 2-0 against the Spurs this season, 2-1 against the Warriors and a combined 9-4 against the West's top four teams. The Spurs, being the Spurs, remain an elite defense. Both teams are among the four slowest in the league over the past 10 games, making this is a matchup to avoid.
GUARDS
Goran Dragic, MIA vs. TOR ($35): Dragic is second in the league in drives per game, and just over half of his drives end in shot attempts. He already makes 52.2 percent of those shots, good for 13th among players who attempt at least five per game. The Raptors will be without Serge Ibaka (suspension) Thursday, and he is their player best qualified to disrupt Dragic's shots when he penetrates into the lane. Dragic has scored at least 43 fantasy points in three of his last six appearances, and one of the games he failed to reach that level was because he left after only 17 minutes with an eye injury.
J.J. Barea, DAL vs. LAC ($11): After a hot start, Barea missed 44 out of 53 games, including 20 straight. He's been back for seven games and looked great, averaging 15.7 points, 12.4 assists, 3.3 rebounds and 1.8 threes per-36 minutes. The only problem is that he isn't getting many minutes. His workload seemed to be increasing slowly, but steadily until he played only 17 minutes Tuesday, making the 17 he saw Friday seem more like the new normal, and not the only outlier on an upward trend. Barea is playing so well that even if he is again limited to (roughly) 17 minutes, he can still turn a decent profit. If he ends up playing closer to 27 minutes, as he did Sunday, then his upside goes through the roof – he scored 20 points and 34.2 fantasy points that day.
Other suggestions: Tyler Ulis, PHO at BKN ($15)
Guard to Avoid
Chris Paul, LAC at DAL ($44): If Paul recreates his third-best game since the All-Star break, daily managers will still lose money on him. He has twice exceeded 48 points in that span, and he needs to earn at least that much to be worth using at this price. The Mavericks are the second-slowest team in the league this season, and over the last 10 games they are a slightly above-average defense by several other important metrics, including opponent three-point percentage and opponent points. This isn't a terrible matchup, but it's definitely not a good one. His price is just too high.
FORWARDS
T.J. Warren, PHO at BKN ($24): In a shocking twist, the Nets are not one of the bottom quarter of defenses over their past 10 games. Fortunately, my mind can put off accepting this fact for at least one more night, since, due to a scheduling quirk, they are still the second-worst per-possession defense in action Thursday. Of the three defenses competing for that ignominious honor, the other two being the Knicks and Clippers, the Nets operate at the fastest pace by far. Combining those two facts, they remain the most fantasy friendly opponent Thursday. Warren has scored at least 34 fantasy points in four of his last five, and he's also getting tons of opportunities – over his last seven games, he is averaging 37.1 minutes per game.
Noah Vonleh, POR vs. NY ($10): Vonleh has scored at least 18 fantasy points in six straight games. Almost all of his value comes from points and rebounds, which are the two most stable sources of fantasy value. He has seen more court time over the past six games, playing at least 23 minutes in all six, including at least 26 in each of the last four, and he's averaging 8.5 points and 8.0 rebounds per game over that span. Meanwhile, the Knicks are one of the more favorable opponents in action Thursday.
Other suggestions: Caris LeVert, BKN vs. PHO ($11); Marquese Chriss, PHO at BKN ($11); LaMarcus Aldridge, SA vs. MEM ($27)
Forward to Avoid
Kawhi Leonard, SA vs. MEM ($50): As mentioned earlier, the Grizzlies tend to play up to their opponents, including winning each of the first two matchups against the Spurs, holding San Antonio under 100 points both times. Leonard missed the first meeting, and scored only 22 points (he averages 26.0 per game this season) and 34.9 fantasy points in their second meeting, which came last week. Leonard has three games of more than 60 fantasy points, and two more of at least 50, in 12 appearances since the break, which represent good or mild profits, respectively. Unfortunately, the other seven were all below 42 fantasy points, representing major losses.
CENTERS
Jusuf Nurkic, POR vs. NY ($27): Nurkic's salary has risen since he was traded to the Trail Blazers, but it is still too low – which is good for our purposes. He has scored at least 30 fantasy points in 11 of 14 games since entering the starting lineup after the All-Star break, averaging 14.5 points, 9.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 2.2 blocks in 30.0 minutes per game in his current role. Other their last 10 games, the Knicks are in the favorable-for-Nurkic's-skills third of the league in opponent points per possession, rebounding percentage and opponent assists.
Jonas Valanciunas, TOR at MIA ($16): Valanciunas' value has plummeted, starting around the time the Raptors traded for Serge Ibaka. Since the trade, Valanciunas' minutes have fluctuated, and they've generally stayed below 25 per game, with only two exceptions. Ibaka is suspended Thursday, so Valanciunas should be in line for a much bigger role. The last two times Valanciunas saw more than 30 minutes in a game, he scored 43.6 and 33.9 fantasy points, respectively.
Other suggestions: Brook Lopez, BKN vs. PHO ($25)
Center to Avoid
Willy Hernangomez, NY at POR ($18): Hernangomez is not worth the trouble. He is a talented player, and his per-minute production has the potential for fantasy gold. But he usually doesn't get enough minutes, and it is nigh impossible to predict the rare occasions when he will get ample court time. Hernangomez played 31 minutes on a night when Kristaps Porzingis left the game early due to injury, but Hernangomez only played 19 when Porzingis sat out the following game. After a Tuesday report that Carmelo Anthony would see reduced minutes over the remainder of the season, there was hope that fewer minutes for Anthony might create some trickle-down impact on Hernangomez (by shifting the ratio of Lance Thomas' usage away from power forward towards more small forward). Then, Anthony came out and played 36 on Wednesday, while Hernangomez played only 17. At this price, Hernangomez is no longer a discount.
