This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Defense to avoid: San Antonio Spurs, vs NYK. The Spurs are obviously the best defense on paper on Saturday night, and the Knicks are limping into the game with several of their best players on injury alert. Unless the Spurs rest their squad, which is always possible, they outclass the Knicks. The Spurs have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to guards, the second-fewest to forwards and the second-fewest to centers this season.
Offenses to Use: Portland Trail Blazers, vs MIN. The two games that most look like shootouts are the Wizards at the Cavs and the Timberwolves at the Trail Blazers. Of the four teams in those games, the Trail Blazers are the only ones that didn't play on Friday, they're playing at home, and they're fighting to get into the playoffs from the nine-slot. Damian Lillard has been going crazy lately, Jusuf Nurkic is a constant threat, C.J. McCollum has been cooler lately but has pop potential, and there are several other potential role players of interest as well.
Teams on Back-to-Backs:
First game: Clippers, Trail Blazers
Second game: Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Wizards
Damian Lillard, POR vs MIN ($9,100): Lillard has detonated of late, averaging 33.7 points, 4.7 assists, 4.2 treys, 3.7 rebounds and 1.7 steals in his last six games. He has scored at least 37 fantasy points in his last 10 games, with a max of 62.5 against a tough Heat defense last week. The Timberwolves have also been tough on point guards, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to the position in the last 10 games, but Lillard is matchup-proof when he's hot like this.
Bradley Beal, WAS at CLE ($7,700): Beal has averaged 22 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.8 treys, 2.2 assists and a steal in his last six games. Beal has only played the Cavaliers once this season, and in that game he blew up for 41 points, eight assists and five rebounds.
Tony Parker, SA vs NY ($4,000): Parker is always a risk, but he has played well in two of his last three games and didn't have a game on Friday so he should be rested. Assuming that Gregg Popovich doesn't sit him, Parker has a good matchup on Saturday against a Knicks team that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to point guards in the last 10 games.
LeBron James, CLE vs WAS ($10,400): Kawhi Leonard almost got the call here because James is on the second half of a back-to-back, but the Cavaliers are only a game up on the Celtics for the top seed in the East and the Wizards are only a few games back as well. Thus, presumably James should play hard on Saturday despite his 40 minutes Friday night. And when James plays hard, there isn't another small forward that can produce more fantasy points than him.
Kevin Love, CLE vs WAS ($7,300): Love was cleared on Friday to play in both games of the current back-to-back set, and he is coming off of two double-doubles in his last three games as he has worked his way back into the line-up. He still hasn't played his normal allotment of minutes since his return, but the 29 he played on Friday night was the most that he's played as he ramps up. In two games against the Wizards this season, Love has averaged 26.5 points, 14 rebounds and two steals.
Mindaugas Kuzminskas, NY at SA ($3,500): This rec is completely dependent upon Carmelo Anthony sitting a second straight game on Saturday. The Knicks announced earlier this week that Anthony would start playing fewer minutes, then played him a surprising 36 minutes against the Jazz on Wednesday before declaring him out with a sore knee on Thursday. In his absence, Kuzminskas scored 14 points with eight rebounds in 31.5 minutes against the Trail Blazers. The Spurs are elite on defense, but if Kuzminskas starts he could still be worth the risk as a near min-player getting big minutes.
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN at POR ($10,700): Towns has a min output of 40.8 and a max of 62.8 fantasy points in his last 10 games. On Saturday, he is on the second half of a back-to-back, playing against a Trail Blazers defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to centers this season, but Towns has been essentially match-up proof, consistently elite even against top competition for months now.
Jusuf Nurkic, POR vs MIN ($7,400): Nurkic has averaged 13 points, 10.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.8 blocks and 1.3 steals in his last six games. He still has a mega variance in his last 10 games, from a min of 10 to a max of 81 fantasy points, but has settled out between 33.5 and 44.8 fantasy points in his last five games. The Timberwolves have allowed the 17th-most fantasy points to centers in the last 10 games.
Nerlens Noel, DAL vs TOR ($5,000): Noel drew the start in the last game, grabbing 12 rebounds with eight points, three assists, two blocks and two steals in 33 minutes against the Clippers. There is no official word that he's starting on Saturday, but if he does he will face a Raptors squad that has allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points to centers in the last 10 games.
