This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defense To Avoid
Milwaukee Bucks, vs. Toronto Raptors: It's crunch time for the Bucks, who have already held the Raptors to point totals of 83, 77 and 87 in this series, with the lowest of those totals coming at the Bradley Center. Toronto has had its moments on offense in the other two games, but with Milwaukee on the brink of elimination, I expect the Raptors to bear down significantly on defense. The Bucks have also proven effective against the dynamic guard combo of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, holding them to a tolerable 21.8 and 14.6 points per game, respectively, during the series, with both numbers considerably under their season averages.
Offense To Use
Milwaukee Bucks, vs. Toronto Raptors: The Bucks are in a must-win scenario and at home, where they averaged a solid 106.0 points per game in the regular season while shooting an impressive 47.9 percent. Milwaukee should have Khris Middleton back at or very near 100 percent as well, and will certainly be going all out to avoid elimination. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Middleton and Greg Monroe have also all given the Raptors trouble throughout most of the series, and the trio should be particularly aggressive Thursday in their roles as the Bucks' most prolific offensive players.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: None
Second game of a back-to-back: None
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs. TOR ($10,300):- Antetokounmpo has actually been more productive in the road games in this series, scoring between 48.0 and 57.25 fantasy points in the three games at the Air Canada Centre. However, a return home for an elimination game should certainly guarantee heavy involvement from the Greek Freak, who's made between 18 and 24 shot attempts in four of five postseason contests thus far. He also averaged a robust 50.4 fantasy points at BMO Harris Bradley Center during the regular season and 48.6 in nine overall games against the Raptors.
Mike Conley, MEM vs. SA ($8,600): Conley has taken his offensive game up a notch during this series, scoring no less than 37.25 and as much as 60.75 fantasy points in the first five games, and boasting a team-high 30.1 percent usage rate and 1.26 DraftKings points per minute. The high end of that range came in the Game 3 at FedEx Forum last Saturday night, and Conley is now averaging 40.9 fantasy points in nine games versus the Spurs between the regular season and postseason.
Patty Mills, SA at MEM ($3,700):-While it's particularly tricky to predict bench production in the postseason, Mills is one of the "safer" second unit options on the slate. He's scored between 17.0 and 26.5 fantasy points over the last three games and just as important, has seen less than 22 minutes only once in the series. With his ability to score in a hurry and what appears to be secure playing time, he's one of the more dependable options if you must go cheap at guard.
Kawhi Leonard, SA at MEM ($9,700):- Leonard is the clear-cut choice on the small slate if you're spending up at forward. He went off for 71.0 fantasy points in Game 4 in this same building and although that came with an atypical bump in usage, Leonard still has scored over 40 fantasy points in three of the other four games during the series as well. He's averaged 47.0 in eight overall games against Memphis this season and there's no reason to believe that Thursday will bring anything different.
Khris Middleton, MIL vs. TOR ($6,300):- It's a very close call between Serge Ibaka ($6,500) and Middleton in the mid-tier at forward, and you're very likely to be okay either way. However, Middleton is at home in a must-win game and reports are that the illness that plagued him in Game 5 will essentially be a non-factor Thursday. Even while playing under the weather in that contest, he still managed 30.25 fantasy points, and has also scored over 30 in two other occasions during the series, including 38.75 in Game 3 at home. Middleton took double-digit shot attempts in Games 1-4 as well, and should be back up to his normal usage levels in Thursday's do-or-die contest.
DeMarre Carroll, TOR at MIL ($3,000):-Carroll is priced at what passes for minimum during the regular season and scored 23.5 fantasy points in Game 5. His fantasy point tallies have been in the teens in two other games during the series, so while he's certainly just a secondary contributor on the Raptors offense, he brings some upside at very little price risk.
Marc Gasol, MEM vs. SA ($7,200):-Gasol is certain to be heavily involved in a must-win game for the Grizzlies, and he checks in having scored between 32.75 and 46.25 fantasy points in four out of the series' first five games. He averaged 38.1 fantasy points at home this season as well, and he's boasting a 24.5 percent usage rate during the series thus far.
Greg Monroe, MIL vs. TOR ($5,700):-Monroe's rebounds were down in Game 5, leading to a tally of 16.5 fantasy points that represented his worst total of the series thus far. However, he'd scored between 26.0 and 38.75 fantasy points in the four other contests and is a steady presence off the bench, having seen no less than 22 minutes in any game. Thursday's pivotal Game 6 should certainly bring more of the same, allowing Monroe a chance to build on the 24.3 fantasy points he's averaged over nine overall games versus Toronto this season.
David Lee, SA at MEM ($4,300):- While Jonas Valanciunas ($4,400) and Thon Maker ($3,800) also make for plausible options above and below Lee, the Spurs' big man may carry the most offensive upside Thursday. Lee's profile has grown over the last two games, as he's scored 19.25 and 24.5 fantasy points, respectively, in those contests while starting for Dewayne Dedmon at center. His ability to both score and produce on the glass is likely to earn him the starting nod again Thursday, giving him an opportunity to outpace his still-affordable price.
INJURY REPORT
For the latest news on injured players heading into the games, check out our Injury Updates page.
