This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Defense to Avoid:
Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Clippers: It's rare to avoid a game altogether, but I won't provide a single recommendation for this matchup. It's not just the fact that this is a do-or-die Game 6, it's that we have two of the best defenses in the league going head-to-head. That's evident by the total of 192, which is at least 10 points lower than the other two games. A huge reason for that is the pace, with these teams posting an incredibly low pace of 89.8. That means less fantasy production, especially given the defensive prowess of both teams. Blowout potential is a factor here too, as Utah is the far superior team in its home building against a discouraged Clippers team who will be without Blake Griffin.
Offense to Use:
Atlanta Hawks vs. Washington Wizards: These teams have played four games in Atlanta this season and the Hawks have done work in their home building. In fact, they have at least 111 points in three of those four games, while shooting nearly 50 percent from the field in all three — which were all wins. It also assures that the Atlanta studs will play huge minutes, as the stars of teams in elimination games traditionally play more than usual.
DraftKings.com Player Recommendations
Avery Bradley, BOS at CHI ($5,900): Bradley has been one of the most consistent players in this series, yet his price continues to stay low. Not only does he have at least 24 fantasy points in four of five games in this series, Bradley has surpassed 36 fantasy points in two of his last three games. His role is consistent too, as he's played at least 34 minutes in all five games, while taking over 13 shots per game.
Tim Hardaway Jr., ATL vs. WSH ($4,500): Hardaway Jr. has way too much upside to be priced so cheaply. Not only is he averaging over 32 minutes per game, Hardaway is averaging nearly 13 shots per game in this series. The reason he hasn't produced is because his shot is way off, but Hardaway is the sort of player who can go off on any given night. That's evident by the fact that he had at least 36 fantasy points in three of his final four regular-season games.
Isaiah Canaan, CHI vs. BOS ($4,300): Canaan was recently inserted into the starting five just two games ago and has become a nice punt play in his new role. In his two starts, Canaan is averaging 35 minutes per game, while taking at least 10 shots in each. That's an incredible role from a player at just $4,300 and he should continue to provide value through his three's alone, as that's his specialty as a spot-up shooter. He'll get the best matchup of any Bulls player too, as he'll likely be covered by the defensively inept Isaiah Thomas.
Paul Millsap, ATL vs. WSH ($8,400): Millsap is the Hawks' best player and he's a must-use in an Atlanta stack. His last four games have been especially impressive, as he's averaging 48 fantasy points in that span. That's the production of a five-figure player, so we get quite the value at $8,400. In addition, this is a must-win game for the Hawks, so Millsap should be looking at a huge usage bump and an increase in his already big workload.
Otto Porter, WSH at ATL ($5,500): Porter is coming off his best two games of this series, as he's averaging over 28 fantasy points per game in that span. That's the Porter we know from the regular season, as he averaged 28.2 fantasy points per game in the regular season. His role shouldn't be an issue either, as he's averaging 35 minutes across his last two games. Atlanta have been terrible against small forwards too, allowing the second-most fantasy points to them this season.
Markieff Morris, WSH at ATL ($5,100): Morris has had a terrible series, but much of it is due to foul trouble and poor shooting. Those are two things that can be fixed overnight and it makes Morris an intriguing option at such a cheap price. To further that point, Morris hasn't surpassed 29 minutes or 44 percent shooting over his last four games. Prior to those four duds, Morris had been averaging 36 fantasy points in his five previous meetings against the Hawks. That means if he can just avoid foul trouble, he's a good bet to reach 7X value, which is fantastic value for someone so cheap.
Dwight Howard, ATL vs. WSH ($6,300): Howard has been better than this price would indicate and he easily has the highest upside of any center on this slate. The reason for that is because Howard is averaging over 33 fantasy points per game in nine meetings against the Wizards. That's just shy of his 35 fantasy point average for the season, as that alone is great value for a $6,300 player. This is yet again a Hawks starter, which means he should be looking at larger minutes in such a critical game.
Marcin Gortat, WSH at ATL ($5,800): The Washington center has really struggled to score in this series, but he's still posting some nice fantasy numbers. In fact, Gortat is averaging 30 fantasy points a game for the series and 29 fantasy points in nine games against the Hawks this season. Amazingly, he's done that damage while scoring just nine combined real points across his last three games, as he's rebounding and blocking shots at will. That only raises his upside, as Gortat averaged 10.6 points per game for the season.
