This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Thursday's five-game slate presents an interesting set of teams. Four games include a defense that ranks in the top-seven in points allowed per-possession over the last ten games. Three other teams are among the seven worst defenses in the same metric over the same period. It's unusual that a small slate would have so many teams at the extreme ends of the league, and that no game features a matchup between two great or two terrible teams.
TARGET
CLE at ATL: This game has the highest projected score on the slate. Only the Nuggets-Bulls game features a worse pair of defenses.
AVOID
MIL at POR: The Trail Blazers are the best per-possession defense in the league over the last 10 games, and the Bucks defense is exactly league average over the same period. Both teams are amongst the slower half of the league in pace.
GUARDS
Kyrie Irving, BOS vs. PHI ($8,400): With Joel Embiid (rest) out, lots of daily gamers will take an extra look at Ben Simmons ($9,300), especially after Simmons scored 31 points and 66 DKFP Wednesday. But for $900 less, Irving has a better matchup and a similar ceiling. The 76ers are the fastest team in action Thursday, and opposing point guards slightly outperform their averages. Irving has scored at least 34 DKFP in his last nine healthy games, and he has at least 40 in four of his last six.
Lou Williams, LAC vs. UTA ($7,300):Patrick Beverley (knee) has missed eight of the last nine games, and on nights without him Lou Williams has surged. Williams has played at least 36 minutes in all but one of those games. He has at least 23 DKFP in all such games, and at least 42 in half of them. It's not always a good idea to use someone coming off of what may end up being his best game of the season, but Williams' situation is just too advantageous for fantasy. While the Jazz are a tough matchup, even without Rudy Gobert (knee), they allow the 10th highest opponent three-point percentages, which improves the value of a shooter like Williams.
Marco Belinelli, ATL vs. CLE ($4,200): Belinelli's floor is about 19 DKFP – he's failed to reach that only once in his past 10 games, and that was against Jaylen Brown and the Celtics' elite defense. 19 DKFP is roughly Belinelli's break-even point at this salary. Not only is he relatively safe, but he's facing arguably the weakest spot in the Cavaliers' defense, and this game is the top game to target, as mentioned above. He's not likely to carry a lineup, but he's great for managers looking to shed some salary as they try to afford the Irvings of the world.
FORWARDS
Kevin Love, CLE at ATL ($8,000): Love has had some up-and-down performances recently, but this matchup is great and the other expensive forwards are generally unappealing. The Hawks just announced that Dewayne Dedmon (leg) will miss at least the next three weeks, depriving Atlanta of their best defensive big man. John Collins is a promising prospect and a good defender, but Love's offensive game is far more advanced than the still-raw rookie's defensive abilities. Furthermore, Collins is likely to spend almost all of his time at center, while Love still plays significant minutes at power forward.
John Collins, ATL vs. CLE ($5,500): With Dedmon out, Collins is likely to receive a large boost in minutes. The last two times Collins played more than 30 minutes, he went off for averages of 17.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 37.4 DKFP. He'll probably be a popular selection given his discount salary and the likelihood of an increased role, but his upside following this injury is massive.
Wesley Johnson, LAC vs. UTA ($4,400): Speaking of players benefitting from injuries, Thursday marks Game 1 of the Clippers without Blake Griffin (knee). Griffin had yet to miss a game this season, but he's now out, probably for at least a month. We don't know exactly how coach Doc Rivers will compensate for Griffin's absence, but logically it seems as though Johnson will play a large role in that. Johnson has already averaged 34.0 minutes per game over his last six outings, and that's almost certainly not about to decrease now. The biggest boon to Johnson's value is that Griffin leaves behind more than 18 field goal attempts per game – shots that will now get shared amongst the Clippers' remaining scorers.
CENTERS
Jusuf Nurkic, POR vs. MIL ($6,700): Nurkic has scored at least 30 DKFP in four straight, and five of his last six. He's a veritable giant compared to the Bucks frontcourt – he's effectively the same height as Thon Maker and John Henson, but Nurkic weighs at least 50 pounds more than either of the two. He should have little trouble bullying them out of his way, and if the Bucks send a help defender then Nurkic is a good enough passer to find the open man.
Derrick Favors, UTA at LAC ($6,600): Favors' performance has drastically improved with Rudy Gobert (knee) on the sidelines. In nine games without Gobert, Favors is averaging 16.8 points, 8.8 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in 29.8 minutes – all drastic improvements from his numbers alongside Gobert, 10.3 points, 4.4 rebounds and 0.5 blocks in 26.4 minutes. Favors is demonstrating how much better suited he is to playing center. And while his salary has already risen over $2,000, it might have another grand to go before it catches up to Favors' current value. He has at least 32 DKFP in his last three games, as well as six of his past nine.
Jahlil Okafor, PHI at BOS ($3,000):Joel Embiid (rest) is out Thursday. Embiid has missed two games so far this season, and they are the only two times Okafor has played. If Okafor is active again Thursday, then he should be a staple in lineups – especially GPPs. For the minimum salary, managers could have a player who recently averaged nearly a double-double, and is only so cheap because of inactivity while his team tries to trade him. In the first game he played this season, he got 10 points, nine rebounds, and 24.25 DKFP. Just double-check that he's active closer to game time.
