This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
The NBA offers up another plentiful 12-game slate on Wednesday, which will yield a myriad of options for us to explore. First, let's look at the matchups themselves.
Four teams are on the tail-end of back-to-back games, with Phoenix traveling to the high-altitude Nuggets. Along with the altitude change, the Suns also have the longest travel time. The Vegas Over/Under here is 218, the Nuggets are an 11-point favorite, making Denver a good team to load up on.
The marquee TV matchup features the Cavs (on a back-to-back) and the Celtics at the Garden, so I'd expect both teams to be playing hard here in Kyrie Irving's second matchup with his old team. Both the Spurs and the Knicks don't have far to go in their back-to backs, so while the Spurs' two games have been on the road, I don't think there's much to discern from that issue.
We already discussed the hefty PHO/DEN Over/Under, but the highest one on the slate is HOU/ORL at 221. With the Magic getting healthy and James Harden out, I'll be looking at a lot of players in this one. TOR/CHI and GS/DAL also have high splits, and one Warrior in particular will never be this cheap again. We'll discuss him shortly.
Now, to the 10K-plus elites on Wednesday's slate. Four of them are active, and three other players sit on the cusp of $10,000. Russell Westbrook ($11,700) is the highest cost and my favorite of the bunch, as he'll head to the Staples Center to face the Lakers, who fare poorly against opposing point guards. If Lonzo Ball is back in action, he'll have his hands full.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,600) should come close to his usual 50 DKFP against the Pacers and is a safe cash play. Everyone else is obviously OK, but LeBron James ($11,300) is coming off a 34-minute game and the matchup isn't ideal, and DeMarcus Cousins ($10,500) has some appeal but he barely hit value when he last played the Nuggets and had a dreadful four-rebound effort underneath. The player just below 10K that I like almost as much as Westbrook is Chris Paul ($9,600) against the Magic, as he'll take over the reins from Harden and go to town on Orlando.
Kevin Durant ($9,700) also comes cheaper than usual and he loves playing the Mavericks. Durant is averaging 56.1 DKFP over two matchups against them. We're overlooking the guy that deserves his own paragraph, however.
You will never – EVER -- see Steph Curry ($8,900) go this low again. When I saw the price this morning, I thought it was a typo. He has so many ways to hit value here. I wouldn't be surprised if his ownership is 80 percent or higher, and that alone might be reason to look elsewhere in a GPP but against the Mavericks, he is a true cash game darling on this slate.
We'll now look to the rest of the player pool and feature three players for each position, with a few non-featured players that hold equal weight in my predictions.
GUARDS
This position is DEEP tonight, so forgive me if I overlook some of the higher-priced candidates. I'll best serve you by targeting cheaper options for you to exploit.
Donovan Mitchell, UTA vs. NO ($7,300): Mitchell went off on the Pelicans in their last matchup (53.5 DKFP) and he's also a beast at home. Jrue Holiday is a prolific scorer but he isn't known for his defensive ability. As one of the league's best rookies, Mitchell will produce in every category.
Eric Gordon, HOU at ORL ($6,800): He'll draw the start for Harden tonight, and I am not featuring him because he's my favorite play, but because I want to lay out the potential risk here. His performance as Paul's replacement was great, but as Harden's placeholder we don't have a very large sample size for this season, so we aren't quite sure how this backcourt pairing will shake out. Still, as an explosive player playing close to 40 minutes, conventional wisdom says you can't ignore him. Gordon will definitely be a presence in my tournament lineups, and his floor is high enough to put him in cash as well, though volume players should give him modest exposure there.
Jarrett Jack, NY at WAS ($4,300): Who is this guy, picking Jack over all of these other players? Look, you have to spend down, it's a necessary evil. We've all scrolled the 3-4K range wondering how we'll fit two 10K players in our lineups, and for me, Jack fits that bill. While Frank Ntilikina was supposed to be the man in this slot, recent production hasn't made him a lock by a long shot, and against a struggling Wizards defense, I think Jack could fill up his stat line enough to break 30 DKFP.
Other guards to consider (and there are a lot of them):Jimmy Butler, MIN at BKN ($8,600); Jamal Murray, DEN vs. PHO ($6,700); Gary Harris, DEN vs. PHO ($6,300); Jaylen Brown, BOS vs. CLE ($5,300)
FORWARDS
Aaron Gordon, ORL at HOU ($7,800): In what should be a shootout, I like Gordon at any of your three forward slots. He's back in a big way after injury, as he's averaged 40.2 DKFP over three games since his return. I'll be honest, I'm not as keen on him as I'd like to be at $7,800, but he'll come very close to meeting value and has the ceiling to be a huge contributor.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, BKN vs. MIN ($6,500): At the DK median price, Hollis-Jefferson is a reliable cash-game anchor who gets the minutes and usage you need in that format, and his low ownership will give you a leg up in the rankings. He's largely dependent on rebounds to reach value, but he's averaged eight boards per game recently against some tough defenses.
Trey Lyles, DEN vs. PHO ($5,100): Lyles gets perhaps his best matchup yet since emerging as a fantasy option, as the Suns are still dead-last in total defense. While Phoenix has found some stability in their frontcourt, Lyles is steadily trending upward and should have no problem exceeding value at this price.
Other forwards to consider:Otto Porter, Jr., WAS vs. NY ($6,600); Will Barton, DEN vs. PHO ($6,500); Josh Richardson, MIA vs. DET ($6,300); Marquese Chriss, PHO at DEN ($4,600)
CENTERS
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN at BKN, ($9,400): Towns should have no problem dealing with Tyler Zeller in what should be a lopsided battle in the paint. Towns has been practically matchup-proof lately, and he's a nightly lock to break 40 DKFP and a double-double bonus.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($7, 600) and Pau Gasol ($6,800), SA at PHI: Obviously I could have put Aldridge with the forwards but I wanted to group him with Gasol to make the same argument. The Sixers aren't a complete team without Joel Embiid, and while I'm a fan of Dario Saric, he's yet to face the Spurs defense. Embiid is currently doubtful to play and if that stays true, I like either of these two to make an impact. I favor Aldridge a bit more as Gasol has had some shaky outings, but he's hard to ignore in this matchup at $6,800, especially with a number of Spurs landing on the injury report Wednesday.
Serge Ibaka, TOR at CHI ($5,300): Barring the occasional ejection, Ibaka comes in as a great value at this price. I could have played him at forward as well, and I like him in any of the five available spots. The key for Ibaka is to break 30 minutes of usage. If he can get there, he's a good bet to break 30 DKFP.
Other centers to consider:Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. PHO ($9,000); Clint Capela, HOU at ORL ($7,400); Bismack Biyombo, ORL vs. HOU ($5,600)
That's all for Wednesday! Don't forget to check your lineups before tip-off to catch any late developments.
