This article is part of our FantasyDraft NBA series.
Thursday offers a compact five-game slate that nevertheless carries some intrigue. Blake Griffin may be ready to make his Pistons debut, although that won't be known for certain until closer to tip-off. Meanwhile, John Wall's absence once again opens up some potential value on the Wizards, while Chris Paul's status is also in flux heading into the day due to a groin injury. With plenty to dissect, let's dive in without further delay:
GUARDS:
Premium Option
Russell Westbrook, OKC at DEN ($21,200): There will undoubtedly be plenty flocking to James Harden ($21,100) on Thursday, especially if Chris Paul (groin) sits again. That may leave Westbrook, who's also coming off an uncharacteristically 5-for-18 shooting performance in his last contest against the Wizards, with a bit lower ownership than usual in tournaments. Despite his struggles, Westbrook still compiled 42.00 fantasy points against Washington, and he'd scored 64.00 to 74.75 fantasy points in four of the previous five games as well. He sported an eye-popping 39.2 percent usage rate and averaged 1.74 fantasy points per minute during that stretch, and he also lit up this same Nuggets squad for 38 points (on 57.1 percent shooting), nine rebounds, six assists, three steals and one block over 37 minutes the last time he saw them Dec. 18. The fact that Denver also comes in allowing the second-most fantasy points to point guards on the season (50.0) -- including 62.0 over the last five – and the most assists (13.6) over the latter span only serves to further Westbrook's case.
Mid-Tier
Malcolm Brogdon, MIL at MIN ($11,500): There's typically plenty of strong options at the mid-tier level at guard, but Brogdon particularly stands out due to what should be extended run at a minimum and a possible start at point guard in a best-case scenario Thursday. Eric Bledsoe (ankle) is officially listed as doubtful for the contest, and Brogdon sports a solid 21.9 percent usage rate, 55.4 effective field-goal percentage and 1.17 points per possession with the latter off the floor this season. The T-Wolves have also been increasingly vulnerable to point guards recently, as they've allowed the fourth-most fantasy points (56.2), third-most points (29.4), second-most assists (10.9), most made three-pointers (3.8) and third-highest shooting percentage (49.0) to the position over the last 10 games, all notably higher numbers than the season figures they've yielded in those categories. Brogdon has also shown upside north of 40 fantasy points on more than one occasion recently, and he should be afforded the playing time to offer a strong return on his price Thursday.
Affordable
Andrew Harrison, MEM at DET ($9,500):Kyle Anderson ($10,100) is also very viable at just a few hundred dollars more expensive, while Harrison's teammate Wayne Selden ($7,400) is also intriguing despite some fairly drastic fluctuations in his production. Meanwhile, Harrison is a viable tournament play in his own right and should have the ball in his hands a substantial amount while drawing another start at point guard, as the Grizzlies are holding Tyreke Evans out while reportedly looking for trade partners. Harrison has scored 20.75 to 29.75 fantasy points in three of the past four games, and he's posted three straight double-digit scoring efforts as well. The Pistons have been vulnerable to point guards while Ish Smith has manned the position, as they've allowed the eighth-most fantasy points (47.1) to the position on the campaign, along with the third-most rebounds (7.0), second-most assists (9.4) and third-highest shooting percentage (45.0).
FORWARDS/CENTERS:
Premium
Jimmy Butler, MIN vs. MIL ($15,300): With Bledsoe out, Giannis Antetokounmpo ($19,900) will rightfully have plenty of suitors in both cash and GPPs, and Andre Drummond ($17,300) is also particularly appealing if Blake Griffin's Pistons debut is once again delayed. Meanwhile, Butler checks in at a significant discount over both and will be in a favorable position in his own right. The Bucks have been especially porous against two-guards in recent games, allowing the ninth-most fantasy points (51.6) to the position over the last five and sixth-most made three-pointers (4.2) as well over that span. Moreover, Butler has scored over 40 fantasy points on four occasions and over 50 in three other contests over the last 10, a span during which he's sporting a 25.4 percent usage rate and averaging 1.26 fantasy points per minute
Mid-Tier
Markieff Morris, WAS vs. TOR ($12,300): Morris is sporting a 22.8 percent usage rate and is averaging 1.24 fantasy points per minute in the first two full games that John Wall has missed with his current knee injury. Additionally, the 12.0 shot attempts he's averaging over the last five contests is a notable bump over the 8.8 he's tallied for the season, and he's also scored 31.25 to 37.25 fantasy points in four of the games during that sample. The Raptors have also given up the seventh-most fantasy points (45.9) to power forwards on the season – including 49.0 over the last five – and the eighth-most points in the paint (45.7) on the campaign, including the eighth-most on the road (47.8).
Affordable
Serge Ibaka, TOR at WAS ($9,700): Ibaka is also in play on the other side of the Raptors-Wizards matchup, considering his sub-$10K price and the fact he's scored 21.25 to 29.50 fantasy points in his last five contests. Ibaka's fantasy-point totals have increased in each of those games draining 50.0 percent of his 9.2 shot attempts during that stretch. That hot hand dovetails nicely for fantasy purposes with the fact that the Wizards come in to Thursday's contest allowing the second-highest shooting percentage (49.0) to power forwards on the season.
UTILITY:
Bradley Beal, WAS vs. TOR ($16,900): Beal's production didn't see any bump in the Wizards' first game without Wall, but it was a different story against the Thunder in his most recent contest. The sharpshooting two-guard racked up 47.50 fantasy points against OKC, and he's sporting a team-high 32.3 percent usage rate and posting a 51.9 effective field-goal percentage without Wall on the floor this season. Additionally, Beal is averaging 32.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists across 38.0 minutes over two games versus the Raptors thus far on the campaign, and Toronto comes in allowing 44.8 fantasy points per contest to two-guards, along with 3.5 made three-pointers.
Gary Harris, DEN vs. OKC ($11,300): Harris has dipped under 30 fantasy points in the last two contests, but he'd scored 31.75 to 42.00 fantasy points in five of the previous six games. Those numbers represent above-average-to-excellent returns on his current price, and his matchup against a Thunder squad that no longer has Andre Roberson's defense to rely on in the backcourt makes him all the more appealing. OKC has allowed 46.0 fantasy points per game to shooting guards on the campaign, along with the second-most made three-pointers (3.8). Meanwhile, Harris is shooting an impressive 47.6 percent on an elevated number of 14.5 shot attempts per contest over the last 10 games, and he's draining 44.0 percent of his three-point tries over his last four.
