This article is part of our FantasyDraft NBA series.
The NBA attacks the Monday blues with a seven-game slate that has the likes of LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard in action, among other luminaries. There's a potentially high-scoring affair to cap off the evening in Blazers-Lakers, and as is customary this time of year, multiple contests with postseason implications. An injury or two also opens up some value, making it an intriguing night of DFS lineup construction all the way around. Without further ado, let's drill down on some top plays at each price tier.
GUARD
Damian Lillard, POR at LAL ($18,300): Lillard already racked up 32 points, six rebounds and five assists across 39 minutes in his one prior meeting with the Lakers this season, and Los Angeles' league-high pace of play (105.2 possessions per game) is the perfect match for fantasy purposes to Lillard's own aggressive style of play. Despite a rare off night during which he shot just 5-for-18 against the Thunder on Saturday, the All-Star guard managed to claw his way to 35.25 fantasy points. Moreover, he'd scored 50.75 to 63.00 fantasy points in four of the prior five contests. The Lakers come in allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to point guards on the season (42.7) -- including the third-most over the last five (58.4) – along with the eighth-highest offensive efficiency rating (25.6) to the position on the campaign. Lillard is sporting a 32.9 percent usage rate and averaging 1.27 fantasy points per minute since the All-Star break, a glimpse at how high a floor he has in what projects to be a high-scoring affair.
Goran Dragic, MIA vs. PHO ($13,500): Dragic thrived against his former Suns squad in his one prior meeting with them this season, posting 29 points, nine rebounds and four assists over 38 minutes. The success is unsurprising, given both Dragic's own talent and Phoenix's overall ineptitude against point guards. The Suns come in allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to ones on the season (43.0), including the most over the last five (71.9). They're also allowing the most points (36.8), rebounds (10.6) and assists (12.0) to the position over the latter span, giving Dragic no shortage of paths to fantasy success. He has scored 26.00 to 55.75 fantasy points in the last seven, a stretch during which he's sporting a 25.3 percent usage rate and averaging 1.10 fantasy points per minute. The Suns are also playing at the fourth-highest pace in the NBA (103.6 possessions per game) and allowing the third-highest percentage of scoring from three-point range (36.3 percent) over the last three games, furthering Dragic's already strong case.
Cory Joseph, IND vs. MIL ($9,500): Joseph's stint as the starting point guard in place of Darren Collison (knee) has been a roller coaster from a fantasy perspective, but he's scored 29.50 to 42.25 fantasy points in the three of the past five games, giving him some tournament upside in the right matchup and at his sub-$10K price. The Bucks present a favorable situation for him Monday, as they come in allowing 53.8 fantasy points per game to point guards over the last five, along with the sixth-most assists (10.6), seventh-most steals (2.6) and fifth-highest shooting percentage (47.0) to the position over that span. Joseph is shooting a solid 46.9 percent on an elevated average of 9.8 shot attempts over his last five games, two figures that would carry him to a solid return if they persist Monday.
FORWARD/CENTER
LeBron James, CLE vs. DET ($21,100): James has proven worthy of a $20K price tag time and time again, with his last 10 games being the most recent example. James has scored no less than 54.75 fantasy points and as many as 79.00 in that stretch, a span during which he's sporting a 31.5 percent usage rate and averaging 1.55 fantasy points per minute. He also enjoyed a strong showing when facing off with Blake Griffin in a Nov. 17 game against the Clippers, a contest in which LeBron posted 39 points, 14 rebounds and six assists over 46 minutes. He should see plenty of Griffin again Monday while playing power forward, a position that the Pistons have actually been more vulnerable against since the latter's arrival (41.5 fantasy points per game allowed to fours over the last 10, as compared to 35.3 for the season). Given the increasingly desperate nature of the Cavs' campaign, James' usage should once again be through the roof in another pivotal matchup for Cleveland's playoff positioning.
Hassan Whiteside, MIA vs. PHO ($14,400): Whiteside posted an efficient 23-point, 10-rebound double-double that also included one assist, four blocks and one steal over 28 minutes in his one prior meeting with the Suns, and he's scored over 30 fantasy points on seven occasions and more than 40 in two other instances over the last 10. That makes him an excellent mid-tier cash or GPP play in a premium matchup, considering the Suns' considerable vulnerabilities down low. Phoenix has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to centers on the season (35.5), including 42.9 over the last 10. They're also yielding the most blocks (2.4) over the latter span, a category that serves as one of Whiteside's most consistent sources of fantasy production. The Suns' propensity for allowing points in the paint, especially on the road (48.5 per game, third highest in the league) is yet another factor in Whiteside's favor, considering he logs 72.9 percent of his scoring in that area of the floor.
Larry Nance, CLE vs. DET ($10,200): For those in need of further savings, the Heat's James Johnson ($9,200) is also an intriguing tournament-only play at $1K less. Meanwhile, Nance is slated to draw the start at center with Tristan Thompson (ankle) set for a multi-game absence, putting him squarely in play as a value option Monday. The trade-deadline acquisition had already been coming on recently in his bench role, scoring 23.00 to 39.50 fantasy points in the last five contests while averaging a solid 11.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.6 blocks and 1.4 steals across 22.8 minutes. Now set for what will likely be a bump in playing time, he's set up in an appealing matchup against a Pistons squad that's been increasingly vulnerable to centers, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the position over the last 10 (50.1). That figure is partly comprised of bottom-five or bottom-10 rankings in several categories against the position, giving the reasonably priced Nance a multitude of paths to a strong return.
UTILITY
Blake Griffin, DET at CLE ($16,300): Griffin had hit a bit of a rough patch recently, scoring under 30 fantasy points in four straight games, but he tallied 40.5 and 46.0 in his last two contests. He also posted a 23-point, 12-rebound double-double that included five assists, two blocks and one steal across 42 minutes in his one prior meeting with the Cavs this season. Meanwhile, Cleveland comes in allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game on the season to power forwards (39.9) -- including 44.9 over the last five games – along with the sixth-highest offensive efficiency rating (26.7) to the position on the campaign. Moreover, they've proven one of the most vulnerable teams in the league in the paint this season -- allowing the seventh-most points (46.6) in that area of the floor – while Griffin records almost half his scoring (45.4 percent) near the basket.
Julius Randle, LAL vs. POR ($13,700): Randle's consistency as the season has unfolded has been something to behold, and he comes into Monday having scored at least 30 fantasy points in eight straight games and in 13 of his last 14 overall. That entire stretch includes four games with more than 40 fantasy points and one over 50, along with a 27.1 percent usage rate and impressive 59.0 percent effective field-goal percentage. Randle is also averaging over three more shot attempts per contest during the last 10 compared to his seasonal figure (13.8, compared to 10.5), and he's shot a blistering 66.7 percent against the Trail Blazers in two prior meetings this season. Moreover, Portland has been more vulnerable to power forwards recently, as the 45.3 fantasy points they're allowing to the position over the last 10 is a notable increase over the 37.2 they've yielded on the season. They're also allowing more than eight additional points in the paint over the last three than on the season (50.7, as compared to 42.1), while Randle is logging a career-high 72.3 percent of his scoring in that area of the floor.
