This article is part of our FantasyDraft NBA series.
We're down to a modest five-game ledger Thursday, but it isn't one that lacks star power. Russell Westbrook, Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns and Stephen Curry are among the luminaries that populate the schedule, and there's a marquee Spurs-Warriors tilt to cap off the night. There's plenty to mull over despite the abbreviated selection of games, so let's tackle the task of identifying an appealing choice at each price tier:
GUARDS:
Russell Westbrook, OKC vs. PHO ($22,300): Sometimes the most obvious choice is also the best one, and Westbrook appears to fit that bill Thursday. He just lit up the Suns for 76.50 fantasy points last Friday, and Phoenix comes in allowing the third-most fantasy points (42.8) to point guards on the season, along with the most (62.2) over the last five. They're allowing the highest shooting percentage (53.0) to the position over the latter span as well, while Phoenix continues to play at the fourth-highest pace (103.5 possessions per game). They're also allowing the fifth-most points in the paint (47.5) -- including the third most on the road (48.7) – numbers which dovetail well for fantasy purposes with Westbrook's elite prowess on drives to the basket. Moreover, he's taking a whopping 27.7 shot attempts over the last three, a sizable boost over his already robust 21.4 season figure.
Kyrie Irving, BOS at MIN ($14,700):Kemba Walker ($15,200) is also an intriguing tournament option despite his dud against the Sixers in his last game, but Irving comes with as much upside at $500 less. The Celtics point guard has declared himself ready to roll for Thursday's contest after missing last Monday's game against the Bulls with a sore knee, putting him in play against a Timberwolves squad that's allowed the highest shooting percentage (45.0) to point guards on the campaign. The 46.0 fantasy points they're allowing to ones over the last five is also a sharp spike from the 36.5 they've yielded to the position on the season, while Irving comes in shooting 53.6 over the last five games, including 50.0 percent on his 8.4 attempts from distance during that stretch. Minnesota is also surrendering the ninth-highest percentage of scoring from three-pointers (30.5) -- and the second-highest shooting percentage overall since Feb. 1 (47.7) -- and Irving has scored 41.50 to 60.25 fantasy points in four of the last six.
J.J. Redick, PHI at MIA ($9,700): Redick sports an appealing price relative to recent production, as he's scored 23.00 to 29.00 fantasy points in five of the last seven, and he's eclipsed 20 fantasy points in 11 of the last 13 overall. One of the games in that sample came against this Heat squad on Feb. 27, a contest in which he compiled 25.25 fantasy points over 28 minutes. Shooting guards have primarily been Miami's defensive Achilles' heel all season, as they've allowed the third-most fantasy points (42.4) to the position on the campaign, along with the fourth-highest shooting percentage (43.0).
FORWARDS/CENTERS:
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN vs. BOS ($17,400): Towns should be extremely well-rested after last having played Friday night against the Jazz, a game in which he got an early hook after 20 minutes due to a pair of technicals. He decimated the Celtics in one prior meeting this season as well, racking up 25 points, 23 rebounds, one assist and two blocks across 42 minutes, and Boston comes in allowing considerably more fantasy points (39.8), points (17.0) and rebounds (11.8) over the last 10 to centers than their respective 30.3, 12.4 and 9.5 season figures in those categories. Towns had also eclipsed 60 fantasy points in the two games prior to his shortened outing versus Utah and is averaging 1.30 fantasy points per minute with Jimmy Butler (knee) off the floor this season.
Steven Adams, OKC vs. PHO ($12,700): Adams tallied 26.75 fantasy points against the Suns in his last meeting with them and he's scored 27.75 and 32.00 fantasy points, respectively, in the two subsequent contests. He's also eclipsed the 30-mark on three other occasions, the 40-milestone once and 50 in one other instance over the last 10 overall, a stretch during which he's shooting 64.8 percent. Phoenix comes in allowing the third-most fantasy points (36.2) to centers on the season, including the fourth most (50.6) over the last five. As mentioned previously, they're also allowing the fifth-most points in the paint (47.5), while Adams is logging a career-high 84.6 percent of his points in that area of the floor this season.
Marvin Williams, CHA vs. BKN ($7,800): The Thunder's Jerami Grant ($7,400) is also worthy of consideration for those who need further savings, but Williams holds some appeal as a low-risk tournament option in his own right. Williams overcame a migraine in his last game against the Sixers to post a solid 22.25 fantasy points over 23 minutes, while the Nets come in allowing the second-highest offensive efficiency rating to power forwards (27.4), along with the third-most fantasy points (60.3) to the position over the last 10. They're also yielding the second-most points (27.8), third-most rebounds (14.6), fourth-most assists (4.6) and most blocks (2.5) to fours over that span, providing Williams with a multitude of ways to offer a strong return on his modest price.
UTILITY:
LaMarcus Aldridge, SA at GS ($14,100):Dwight Howard ($15,200) is also very much in consideration if you've got the cash to spend up, but Aldridge offers some savings after seeing his price come down following a pair of lackluster outings. The big man mustered just 11.75 fantasy points in 13 minutes against the Pelicans on Feb. 28 before suffering an ankle sprain, and then managed a modest 21.50 fantasy points over 31 minutes against the Grizzlies in his Monday return. Now having had additional time to rest up his ankle and locked into matchup with the third-fastest paced team in the league (103.7 possessions per game), he should be poised for a much better return against a Warriors squad he's already averaged 22.0 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.0 blocks and 1.0 steal across 32.5 minutes in two prior meetings this season. Golden State has also allowed the seventh-most points in the paint (47.0) on the season, while Aldridge has logged nearly half of his scoring (48.4 percent) in that area of the floor.
DeMarre Carroll, BKN at CHA ($11,600): Carroll has scored 33.75 to 44.50 fantasy points in four of his last five games, a span during which he's shooting 51.6 percent – including 46.2 percent from distance on an average of 7.8 attempts. The veteran is also putting up an elevated total of 14.3 attempts in his last three games, while the Hornets come in particularly vulnerable to power forwards of late. Charlotte has allowed 52.0 fantasy points to the position over the last 10 – including the second most (59.4) over the last five – along with bottom-five figures in multiple other categories to the position during the latter span. Moreover, they're yielding the seventh-highest offensive efficiency rating (26.6) to fours on the season, furthering Carroll's case at a reasonable price.
