ADP Report: Early Trends

This post analyzes the ADP trends for the upcoming baseball season. In my opinion, the best data to use for this is generated by the NFBC drafts that have taken place thus far. It’s important to compare apples to apples, so for this first view I will use only information from the NFBC Draft Champions format, a 50-round draft-and-hold contest that began drafting in mid-November (there have been 68 drafts completed between Nov. 11 and Feb. 5). I have divided the data into two parts – those completed by Jan. 7 (45 drafts) and those that have been completed between Jan. 8 and Feb. 5 (the most recent four weeks with 23 completed drafts). This should give us a picture of which players are moving up draft boards and which are dropping.

This first ADP review will focus on the players that reached the top 60 either in the first or second time period (the first four rounds of these 15-team drafts). Since these are the top players, we’ll see generally less movement up-and-down. But still, a few spots of ADP can indicate a change in opinion on that player. In addition, it’s my opinion that small movement in January and February can indicate which players could move up sharply during the heavy draft season in mid-to-late March. Experienced players have seen many examples of players becoming a hot commodity during the height of draft season and jumping up several rounds while others drop precipitously. If we can discern which players might be pushed up, it is possible to plan accordingly. A fantasy manager can look carefully and consider whether to move the player up their own draft ranking in order to have a chance (within reason) to roster them. Similarly, falling players could allow you to wait on them even past where you think they’re worth in order to get an even better value. 
The first thing to notice is that the top 60 players that moved up in the most recent four-week period are largely starting pitchers (7 out of 12). Perhaps the very early drafters are more relaxed about picking starting pitchers, before the NFBC starts to transform to what we have come to know in the past few years – leagues that generally are very aggressive about starting pitchers. Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Carrasco, Jack Flaherty, Mike Clevinger and Jameson Taillon have all been pushed up in the last four weeks. Conversely, just one of the 10 fallers is a starting pitcher (Clayton Kershaw). The other interesting angle is that prior to the J.T. Realmuto trade to Philadelphia, the stock of the two top catchers (Gary Sanchez and Realmuto) was falling as owners prioritized other positions. While Sanchez might fall into the fifth round, it is likely that Realmuto will rise from here to an early fourth round selection.
We plan to update this blog later in February and then again in early March and we can see if these trends are arrested or continue as the draft season reaches its crescendo in the last two weeks of March.
Those rising by more than one spot:
Chris Sale 17th to 13th
Paul Goldschmidt 20th to 18th
Corey Kluber 22nd to 20th
Gerrit Cole 28th to 26th
Andrew Benintendi 31st to 29th
Kris Bryant 36th to 34th
Carlos Carrasco 37th to 33rd
Cody Bellinger 46th to 44th
Jack Flaherty 58th to 54th
Mike Clevinger 60th to 55th
Jameson Taillon 61st to 57th
Lorenzo Cain 65th to 59th
Those falling by more than one spot
Jose Altuve 14th to 16th
Aaron Judge 18th to 21st
Freddie Freeman 21st to 23rd
Charlie Blackmon 25th to 28th
Clayton Kershaw 33rd to 38th
Khris Davis 44th to 48th
Gleyber Torres 54th to 58th
J.T. Realmuto 56th to 61st
Gary Sanchez 57th to 60th
George Springer 59th to 62nd
Players listed in order of their Initial ADP (between November 11th and January 7th):
Blue = Risers; Red = Fallers
1  Mike Trout 1.22 – 1.04
2  Mookie Betts 1.84 – 1.96
3  Jose Ramirez 3.62 – 4.39
4  Francisco Lindor 4.60 – 4.83
5  Max Scherzer 6.53 – 5.65
6  Ronald Acuna  7.00 – 6.52
7  J.D. Martinez   7.49 – 6.83
8  Christian Yelich 7.53 – 7.17
9  Nolan Arenado 9.33 – 10.48 now ranked 10th
10  Trea Turner 9.53 – 8.22 now ranked 9th
11  Alex Bregman 11.13 – 12.74 now ranked 12th
12  Jacob deGrom 12.58 – 11.61 now ranked 11th
13  Javier Baez 13.71 – 15.17 now ranked 14th
14  Jose Altuve 15.16 – 15.83 now ranked 16th
15  Manny Machado 15.49 – 15.22
16  Bryce Harper 16.89 – 18.04 now ranked 17th
17  Chris Sale 17.38 – 14.91 now ranked 13th
18  Aaron Judge 19.00 – 21.87 now ranked 21st
19  Trevor Story 19.58 – 19.39
20  Paul Goldschmidt 19.78 – 19.26 now ranked 18th
21  Freddie Freeman 22.69 – 22.39 now ranked 23rd
22  Corey Kluber 22.78 – 21.35 now ranked 20th
23  Aaron Nola 23.18 – 22.35
24  Giancarlo Stanton 23.24 – 23.78 now ranked 25th
25  Charlie Blackmon 24.80 – 26.87 now ranked 28th
26  Justin Verlander 25.31 – 22.09 now ranked 22nd
27  Blake Snell 26.69 – 26.61
28  Gerrit Cole 27.82 – 26.09 now ranked 26th
29  Juan Soto WAS OF 30.78 – 32.17 now ranked 30th
30  Whit Merrifield KC 31.47 – 32.74 now ranked 31st
31  Andrew Benintendi 32.07 – 29.13 now ranked 29th
32  Trevor Bauer 33.13 – 33.09
33  Clayton Kershaw 34.38 – 37.70 now ranked 38th
34  Luis Severino 35.36 – 35.22 now ranked 35th
35  Walker Buehler 35.49 – 35.30 now ranked 36th
36  Kris Bryant 35.76 – 35.17 now ranked 34th
37  Carlos Carrasco 36.22 – 34.00 now ranked 33rd
38  Starling Marte 38.11 – 36.61 now ranked 37th
39  Noah Syndergaard 39.36 – 39.91
40  Anthony Rizzo 40.09 – 40.39 now ranked 41st
41  Adalberto Mondesi 41.29 – 40.17 now ranked 40th
42  Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 41.38 – 43.13 now ranked 43rd
43  Rhys Hoskins 42.09 – 41.87 now ranked 42nd
44  Khris Davis 44.91 – 48.30 now ranked 48th
45  Patrick Corbin 45.84 – 46.43
46  Cody Bellinger 48.16 – 44.70 now ranked 44th
47  Anthony Rendon 48.93 – 46.87 now ranked 46th
48  Xander Bogaerts 49.82 – 47.70 now ranked 47th
49  Edwin Diaz 49.87 – 48.57
50  Carlos Correa 50.00 – 49.65
51  Ozzie Albies 51.29 – 53.48 now ranked 52nd
52  James Paxton 51.71 – 52.91 now ranked 51st
53  Eugenio Suarez 54.13 – 54.65
54  Gleyber Torres NYY 2B, SS 57.36 – 61.09 now ranked 58th
55  Stephen Strasburg 57.42 – 59.52 now ranked 56th
56  J.T. Realmuto MIA C 58.29 – 62.35 now ranked 61st
57  Gary Sanchez NYY C 58.51 – 61.74 now ranked 60th
58  Jack Flaherty 58.87 – 56.26 now ranked 54th
59  George Springer 60.00 – 62.96 now ranked 62nd
60  Mike Clevinger 61.64 – 58.91 now ranked 55th
61 Jameison Taillon 63.29 – 59.74 now ranked 57th
65 Lorenzo Cain 65.13 – 61.17 now ranked 59th
These players had the largest moves up or down of those that had an ADP of between 60-180 either in the first segment of our study (November 11th through January 7th) or the second segment (January 8th through February 5th). The interesting fact is that almost all of the players in the rising group are recent signees, so there likely isn’t any change in perceived skills but rather that their role is more secure or more beneficial in their new location.

Rising ADP:
Jean Segura 72 to 66 (traded to PHI 12/3)
Jose Berrios 77 to 72
Jonathan Villar 82 to 70
Wil Myers 120 to 109 (announced he will transition to OF 1/12)
A.J. Pollock 121 to 114 (signed with LAD 1/24)
Nelson Cruz 130 to 98 (signed with MIN 12/27)
Daniel Murphy 138 to 80 (signed with COL 12/20)
Brian Dozier 146 to 135 (signed with WAS 1/10)
Andrew McCutchen 154 to 145 (signed with PHI 12/11)
Yasmani Grandal 155 to 137 (signed with MIL 1/15)
Billy Hamilton 160 to 153 (signed with KC 12/10)
Byron Buxton 178 to 165 (positive report on conditioning 1/27)
Cesar Hernandez 179 to 168
Jonathan Schoop 188 to 173 (signed with MIN 12/6)
David Robertson 251 to 176 (signed with PHI 1/3)
In contrast to the rising players, the players drafted later don’t have as much in the way of specific recent news to blame, so it seems that there is just a relatively poorer outlook for their 2019 performance by fantasy managers who drafted more recently.
Falling ADP:
Madison Bumgarner 69 to 77
Miles Mikolas 80 to 90
Mitch Haniger 83 to 94
David Price 87 to 93
Josh Hader 93 to 101
Shohei Ohtani 100 to 119 (announced he won’t be ready for Opening Day 1/31)
Salvador Perez 101 to 112
Robbie Ray 104 to 111
Jose Leclerc 105 to 116 (named closer 1/25)
Joey Gallo 108 to 118 (announced he is not moving to 3B 12/21)
Wade Davis 113 to 121
Carlos Martinez 117 to 125
Tim Anderson 118 to 130
Edwin Encarnacion 127 to 133 (traded to SEA 12/13)
Kyle Freeland 132 to 162
Yoan Moncada 150 to 157
Elvis Andrus 163 to 171
Eduardo Escobar 167 to 178
Austin Meadows 172 to 180 (Avisail Garcia signs with TB 1/14)