Category Targets for the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship

The RotoWire Online Championship is an NFBC league with a $350 entry fee, 12-team, 5×5 leagues and a $100K grand prize. A substantial portion of your entry fee goes toward the overall prize pool – you win only $1,500 for first place in your individual league – so it’s imperative to draft with the overall competition in mind. That means balance across all 10 categories as this is a no-trade format (for obvious reasons.) To that end, I ran some numbers from recent seasons to see how much one would need in each category to contend for the overall.

Here’s the first table, giving us a sense of how high you’d have to score in every category to win the entire contest:

Year (#of tms) 2017 (1788) % 2016 (1632) % 2015 (1500) % AVG%
1st 16734.5 93.6% 14668.5 89.9% 13720.5 91.5% 91.6%
2nd 16459 92.1% 14637 89.7% 13425.5 89.5% 90.4%
3rd 16288 91.1% 14623 89.6% 13329 88.9% 89.9%
4th 15923 89.1% 14448 88.5% 13087.5 87.3% 88.3%
5th 15676 87.7% 14106 86.4% 13070 87.1% 87.1%

Last year had more teams than ever (1,788), and the winning team had an almost impossible 93.6 percent of the possible overall points. We’ve talked about aiming for 80 percent in the NFBC’s smaller and higher stakes Main Event contest with roughly 500 people, but 80 percent doesn’t get you anywhere close to the overall here. This is the season-long equivalent of a GPP.

You can see in previous seasons you didn’t have to do quite that well, and there’s even a precipitous drop last year from third to fourth and fourth to fifth, i.e., the first-place score might be an outlier.

I averaged the first place scores from the last three years, and it’s still pretty high – 91.6% of all the category points. Let’s use that as our target and take a look what it takes category by category to get there:

1788 Teams 80% 85% 90% 91.6% 93.6% 100%
Avg. needed 1430.4 1519.8 1609.2 1637.8 1673.6 1788
HR 340 346 353 356 360 406
RBI 1101 1114 1130 1136 1145 1249
R 1126 1139 1154 1160 1170 1258
SB 150 155 162 164 168 217
AVG 272.6 274.1 0.2759 0.2766 0.2776 297.9
W 99 101 103 104 106 131
K 1435 1460 1486 1495 1507 1688
ERA 3.735 3.68 3.606 3.573 3.534 3.102
WHIP 1.222 1.212 1.198 1.193 1.183 1.091
SAVES 91 94 99 100 102 132

In subsequent posts, I’ll break down what it takes roster-wise to hit these numbers, but it’s a tall order to get to that ~91.6 percent average to win the entire contest.

Note also how wide the gap is from 93.6 and 100, i.e., there’s very little category bang for the buck on the tail end of the bell curve, so it’s important not to overspend in any one category. For example, going from 346 homers (1520 points in the  category) to 360 (1674) gets you 154 more points on just 14 more HR, but going from 360 to 406 homers gets you only 114 more points.

 

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