Scheme and Metrics fantasy team preview- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the Kansas City Chiefs.
The system/scheme
• Andy Reid has always been an offensive genius- and he's gotten high-level production from far from elite talent. Now with the Chiefs, he has three outliers (Mahomes, Tyreek and Kelce), and his offense is near unstoppable. Unbelievably, 10 teams ran more offensive plays than they did last year, but they still were the best offense in the league. Of course, the reason was that they were so efficient, they needed very few plays to find the end zone. Even if they're not as efficient this year, they'll likely have higher play volume. Anyway, do I really need to tell you to draft Chiefs players whenever you can?
Metrics
• Many people will dismiss Damien Williams because he was a relative nobody early in his career, only to luck into a great situation in KC that ended up with him being a league-winner late last year. What many don't realize is that he has 95th percentile speed and 63rd percentile explosiveness, and although his agility score was low, he had a 34% juke rate last year, which was near the top of the league.
• Tyreek Hill, as we know, if one of the most lethal playmakers we've ever seen. He is in at least the 94th percentile in 40-yard-dash time, explosiveness, agility and catch radius, and most importantly, he's an outlier- a type of player who is a generational talent.
• Mecole Hardman is NOT Tyreek Hill- he's not in the same stratosphere. Lazy fantasy analysts see his 4.33 40-yd-dash time and say he's a Hill clone. Fast dudes aren't outliers- players like Hill are outliers. Hardman has 53rd-percentile explosiveness and good, but not elite 75th-percentile agility, he'll be a rookie trying to figure out the game on the fly, and he should get some snaps in multi-WR sets.
Positive Spin
• Things keep humming along with the vast array of weapons at Reid's disposal- Hill stays out of trouble, Watkins' foot problems are behind him and Damien Williams remains the deadly weapon he was last year. Put that all together and we have another amazing year of fantasy production.
Negative Spin
• Aside from injuries, I really don't have a negative outlook.
My advice-
• I can't take Mahomes in the second or third round in a one-QB league- but I've never drafted a QB early. Could he give you a positional advantage by blowing away the field? Yes, and if you believe he'll be far and away the top QB, you should consider taking him there.
• I have Damien Williams as my RB6-this system has been churning out stud RBs for a long time, and I believe in Williams as a player. I would take him in the second round without hesitation.
• Tyreek Hill will be gone in the first or second round- he's great value in the second, and if he's the highest player on your board at that point, he's worth it.
• Travis Kelce is usually going in the first round, and I can't argue against taking him there. I feel the need to get out of the first round with a RB or WR, so that's my rationale. However, along with George Kittle, Kelce will give you a big positional advantage over most of your league mates.
• Sammy Watkins currently has an inflated offseason ADP (WR26) because people were drafting him early with the expectation that Tyreek Hill would be suspended. He'll likely end up into the range of roughly WR34. He was really good in home games and in a playoff game last year- they were trying to manufacture him touches to get the ball in his hands to use him as a runner (he runs like a powerful RB). He's the cheapest piece of this offense, and if his foot holds up, he'll be an excellent value.