Scheme and Metrics fantasy team preview- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the Indianapolis Colts.
The system/scheme• Frank Reich completely understands not only analytics, but the strengths of his team. He uses 12 and 13 personnel to throw the football and he'll also use the run in the most favorable of situations. He'll consistently use his scheme and play design to either eliminate third downs or keep them at a very manageable down and distance. Aside from his scheme, he has a loaded roster with really no weaknesses. From a superstar QB to an elite OL, they have a versatile RB in Marlon Mack. If that's not enough, they've added so much talent over the past two years at WR and TE that T.Y. Hilton can't be the sole focus of opposing defenses. This is an offense to buy in on- they'll be one of the best in the league for fantasy production.
Metrics
• Marlon Mack has strong speed and explosiveness scores in the upper-70th percentile, though he didn't test for agility at the NFL Combine. Although not a superstar, he's a well-rounded and above average starting RB playing in the system in which he's used to his strengths.
• Devin Funchess has 87th percentile speed to go with 78th percentile explosiveness. However, don't look for him to be shifty with a 24th-percentile agility score, but that's not his game anyway- he'll give Luck a fantastic target when single-covered and also in the red zone.
• Parris Campbell didn't test for agility at the Combine, but he's at least in the 97th percentile of all speed metrics, including a ridiculous 4.31 40-yard -dash. Although he could have growing pains as a rookie, including winning a starting job in the slot, be he could be a game-changer in terms of helping the Colts offense become a juggernaut.
Positive Spin
• The Colts simply build on last year- Andrew Luck wasn't really turned loose until roughly halfway through the season, as he was recovering from shoulder surgery. From that point on, this offense was very balanced and quite lethal. They now add a pair of WRs to the mix that help them become almost indefensible with a QB like Luck at the helm along with Reich's play-calling.
Negative Spin
• I really can't spin the Colts negatively with the exception of an Andrew Luck injury- as good as the scheme and talent are, Jacoby Brissett would likely keep the team successful, but the offense wouldn't likely be elite.
My advice-
• As I've mentioned in other team previews, I'll pay up for an elite QB in leagues that require two starters, but I'll never draft a top-five QB anywhere near their ADP. I can't see Luck finishing outside the top-six at his position with a top-three finish likely.
• Marlon Mack saw his snap rate go through the roof down the stretch and in the playoffs last year- he was averaging 76 percent of the snaps, and he was a three-down player. His ADP is seeing him drafted as if Nyhiem Hines is going to take away his passing down work (which was the case over the first 10 games). With Mack in the lineup, Reich will have the defense unsure whether the play will be run or pass, so I expect him to remain a full-time player. I would definitely draft him in the late second round and expect RB1 numbers from him.
• T.Y. Hilton had 917 yards, easily the most in the league, during the 2nd half of last season, and that coincided with the fact that Andrew Luck wasn't 100% to start the season. Sure, the Colts have bunch of weapons, but that should allow Hilton to be even better- even if he sees a slight drop in targets, the quality of those targets should be more valuable- I expect him to be a WR1, but he's being drafted as a WR2.
• Devin Funchess is going about 170 picks into average drafts- It should be noted that he was the WR21 when Cam Newton's shoulder was last healthy in 2017. Don't expect him to be a star, but he'll be a great flex option, who could be a major factor in the red zone.
• Although I think he'll have a few huge games, I don't know that Parris Campbell comes in and demands enough of a target share to be a consistent fantasy performer. Of course, in best-ball leagues, he's a solid choice after 200 picks have come off the board.
• I'm fading both Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron- when Doyle was healthy last year, Ebron typically played well less than half of the snaps- and Ebron is being drafted as if he'll be a full-time player. Also, the added weapons will likely reduce the need for Doyle as a low-upside safety valve for Luck- the QB now has explosive players he can dump the ball to.