Daily Games Review: Trust Tracker

I use the Trust Tracker to publicly track the usefulness – or lack thereof – of the recommendations I made in my most recent Daily Games Cheat Sheet article.

For a more detailed introduction, check out my first and second posts here and here.

Players are measured according to their p/K (points per thousand dollars spent). Depending on their p/K and the approximate number of points needed to win a 50-50 league that night, players are rated as either “helpful”, “competitive”, or “harmful”.

On a normal night with a full slate of games (roughly 10 or more), you will need to score between 240 – 250 points to win a 50-50 league. On those nights, a p/K of 4.8 or higher is helpful, a p/K between 4.0-4.8 will keep a roster competitive, and a p/K below 3.5 is harmful.

Those are our baseline benchmarks, but it is important to adjust my analysis so that it reflects the night in question. While there is always variation from contest to contest, the scores required to win each one on any given night are usually very closely grouped, regardless of entry cost. Last time I wrote the Daily Games Cheat Sheet was Wednesday, December 31. On Wednesday, DraftKings split its NBA contests into a three-game early slate, and a four-game late slate.

The scores required to win most contests in the early slate were between 190-200 (80% of the 240-250 range). As such expectations for players in the early games are:

  • Scores above 3.8 p/K are helpful
  • Scores between 3.2 and 3.8 p/K keep a roster competitive
  • Scores below 2.8 p/K are harmful

The scores required to win most contests in the late slate were between 220-225 (91% of the 240-250 range). As such expectations for players in the early games are:

  • Scores above 4.3 p/K are helpful
  • Scores between 3.6 and 4.3 p/K keep a roster competitive
  • Scores below 3.2 p/K are harmful

In Wednesday’s article, I recommended 12 players for use:

  • Seven players (58% of those recommended) recorded “helpful” p/K values.
  • Two players (17%) recorded “competitive” p/K values.
  • Three players (25%) recorded “harmful” p/K values.
  • The best recommendation was Dion Waiters, who recorded a p/K of 5.3.
  • The worst recommendation was Corey Joseph. Joseph continued in his role as starter, but, for the first time, Patty Mills saw more playing time. Despite the game going into overtime, Joseph played the least minutes he’s seen in a game without Tony Parker. Joseph totaled only 11.75 fantasy points for a p/K value of 2.2.

Overall, 75 percent of my recommendations were of competitive value or better, 58 percent were actively helpful, and 25 percent were damaging.

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Because of the split contests format that DraftKings used on Wednesday, I was not able to build a team of only players that I recommended.

Season total

Through 16 articles this season, I have recommended 196 players for use.

  • 109 have been helpful (56%)
  • 143 have been competitive or better (73%)
  • 41 have been harmful (21%)