A week from today, ahead of Week 1, I'll write up my picks for the opening slate. But for the hell of it, I decided to glance at the schedule today, without looking at the lines, set my own numbers, guess the actual numbers and compare both to the actual lines as of August 29th.
Here are the results:
| Week 1 Games | My Line | Guessed Line | Actual Line | ML-AL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons at Eagles | 3 | 4.5 | 4 | -1 |
| Steelers at Browns | -6.5 | -7 | -6 | -0.5 |
| 49ers at Vikings | 7 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 1.5 |
| Bengals at Colts | 0 | 2.5 | 3 | -3 |
| Bills at Ravens | 9 | 7 | 5.5 | 3.5 |
| Jaguars at Giants | -2.5 | -3 | -3.5 | 1 |
| Buccaneers at Saints | 11.5 | 10 | 9.5 | 2 |
| Texans at Patriots | 7.5 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Titans at Dolphins | 0 | -2.5 | -2 | 2 |
| Chiefs at Chargers | 3 | 2.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Seahawks at Broncos | 3 | 3 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| Cowboys at Panthers | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 2 |
| Redskins at Cardinals | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 2.5 |
| Bears at Packers | 10 | 10 | 8.5 | 1.5 |
| Jets at Lions | 7 | 8 | 7 | 0 |
| Rams at Raiders | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3 | -0.5 |
What's funny is I knew the Ravens-Bills line was six as of a few weeks ago - only because I made such a crazy off-base guess of 13 (embarrassing, I know) this summer when someone brought it up - and I figured it moved up to seven given the Bills QB turmoil. But actually it moved in the other direction to 5.5. As I had the number at nine, it's my biggest disparity and the Ravens one of my best bets.
I had the Redskins getting 2.5 in Arizona, and that game is pick 'em, though the difference between zero and 2.5 isn't actually that great because it doesn't cross a key number like three or seven. I had the Bengals as a pick 'em at Indy, thought the market would make Indy 2.5-point favorites due to Andrew Luck, but underestimated it. Accordingly, I'll probably be on the Bengals Week 1 too.
The other big disparity was the Bucs-Saints - I figured with Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road the line would be bigger. Accordingly, I'll probably be laying the wood next week.
One disclaimer: none of these leans are final, and I'll go into it in greater detail in the article and on the podcast next week.