There are only two receivers who have topped 100 catches the last two years. One of them is Antonio Brown. The other? Larry Fitzgerald who led the league with 107 in 2016.

So why am I fading him?

Unfortunately for those who have already rostered Fitzgerald, receptions from prior seasons don't count toward this year's totals. When evaluating players, there are but four factors to consider: (1) Health; (2) Skills; (3) Role; and (4) Team Context. The undue risk for Fitzgerald is on prong (2).

On August 31, Fitzgerald will turn 34, an age by which most receivers, especially those on the bigger side, lose their ability to be productive. I made this case on Twitter, and many people objected, arguing Fitzgerald is a uniquely hard worker capable of defying the aging process for at least another year.

But the same case was made for another future Hall of Famer, Andre Johnson, two years ago, and even more strongly as Johnson's PPR ADP heading into his age 34 season was even higher than Fitzgerald's:

Note that Johnson averaged 9.9 YPT at age 31 - clearly he was still in his Hall of Fame prime. At age 32, his totals were driven by massive volume (181 targets), but the per-play efficiency declined to about league average (7.8.) By 2014, an age 33 Johnson was scraping the bottom of the barrel, but his 2015 ADP showed people expected a bounce back at age 34, after he was signed by the Andrew Luck-quarterbacked Colts.

Of course, Luck got hurt, but Johnson's teammate T.Y. Hilton managed 16.3 YPC and 8.4 YPA, despite Luck missing nine games, i.e., Johnson was probably done even had Luck played the whole season. Johnson played only eight games the following year (with nine catches) before retiring mid-season.

Now let's compare Fitzgerald's age 33 season (2016) to Johnson's (2014):

These are actually pretty similar seasons. Fitzgerald was much more efficient at catching what was thrown his way, but he was standing so close to his quarterback, that's to be somewhat expected. Johnson got more yards per catch, but the efficiency numbers (YPT) were nearly identical - identically terrible. And Fitzgerald had his QB for 15 games.

Moreover, the drop from 2015 to 2016 for Fitzgerald (1.6 YPT) was roughly the same as Johnson's drop-off from 2013-14 (1.4 YPT), i.e., their age 32 to 33 per-play declines were nearly the same.

Of course, Johnson's decline doesn't mean there will be a similar one for Fitzgerald. But Johnson, another big, physical Hall of Fame-bound WR at exactly the same age is a good comp and a reminder of the extra skills-collapse risk - over say a Golden Tate or Jarvis Landry - that Fitzgerald carries, and that in my opinion is not being priced in at his current NFFC ADP of 48.

Finally, as inefficient as Fitzgerald was overall last year, he got worse as the year wore on: Fitzgerald scored five of his six TDs in Weeks 1-5. From Weeks 11-17, Fitzgerald managed a meager 39-337-1 line.

Maybe the Cardinals will force the ball to Fitzgerald enough for another 100-catch, 6-TD season, but even the great ones fade, and no team force-feeds ineffective players forever.

Except the Jeff Fisher Titans (see George, Eddie.)