NBA Daily Games Trust Tracker: Recapping Last Week’s Performance

I use the Trust Tracker to publicly track the usefulness – or lack thereof – of the recommendations I made in my most recent Daily Games Cheat Sheet article.
For a more detailed introduction, check out my first and second posts here and here

Players are measured according to their p/K (points per thousand dollars spent). Depending on their p/K and the approximate number of points needed to win a 50-50 league that night, players are rated as either “helpful”, “competitive,” or “harmful.”

On a normal night with a full slate of games (roughly 10 or more), you will need to score between 240 – 250 points to win a 50-50 league. On those nights, a p/K of 4.8 or higher is helpful, a p/K between 4.0-4.8 will keep a roster competitive, and a p/K below 3.5 is harmful.

Those are our baseline benchmarks, but it is important to adjust my analysis so that it reflects the night in question. While there is always variation from contest to contest, the scores required to win each one on any given night are usually very closely grouped, regardless of entry cost. Last time I wrote the Daily Games Cheat Sheet, Thursday, October 29, the scores required to win most contests were between 215-225 (90% of the 240-250 range). As such, I will proportionally decrease expectations for this analysis:

  • Scores above 4.3 p/K are helpful
  • Scores between 3.6 and 4.3 p/K keep a roster competitive
  • Scores below 3.2 p/K are harmful

In Thursday’s article, I recommended 17 players for use:

  • Eleven players (65% of those recommended) recorded p/K values above 4.3.
  • Two players (12%) recorded a p/K value between 3.6-4.3.
  • Four players (24%) recorded a p/K value below 3.2.
  • The best recommendation was Kyle O’Quinn, who recorded a p/K of 8.4. He registered the second highest p/K in the league Thursday night.
  • Four players (24%) recorded p/K values above 6.0. All four ranked among the top 10 in p/K for the night.
  • The worst recommendation was Chris Paul. Two factors combined to doom this recommendation (and with it my own DraftKings lineups). First, and most importantly, I appear to have underestimated the Mavericks’ defense. I expected them to struggle, allowing numerous points and assists. Through four games, however, the Mavericks have allowed the fourth fewest assists per game, and are above average in scoring defense. Secondly, on the second night of a back-to-back set and with a large lead late, the entire starting lineup saw fewer minutes than usual. Paul ended up with only nine points, three rebounds, and five assists, totaling 22.75 fantasy points for 2.4 p/K.

Overall Wednesday, 77 percent of my recommendations were of competitive value or better, 65 percent were actively helpful, and 24 percent were damaging.

The team that I entered Thursday on DraftKings was created using only players highlighted in my Thursday article (sadly including Chris Paul). I tallied 212.5 points for an overall p/K of 4.25.

Screen Shot Thursday 10-29 Cheat Sheet

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