Saturday was my Main Event NFBC draft, live from Las Vegas and the Bellagio. I arrived mid-day Friday, luckily avoiding the apparent Mad Max-like dystopian landscape left in the wake of a massive windstorm in the desert Thursday. RotoWire colleagues and friends Scott Jenstad, Vlad Sedler, Ronny Mor and Russ Prentice encountered overturned semis and terrible visibility issues on their drive Thursday. Scott and I prepped for the draft on the golf course Friday, playing Vegas National for the first time. Because of the wind storm the day before and the still-high but not quite as bad winds on Friday, the course was nearly empty. It was perfect to play a quick yet leisurely round, discussing strategy most of the way. Scott had the 13-spot in his Main draft, as did Vlad, I had the 14-spot in mine, alas right next to Ronny and Russ sitting at 15. That proved to be critical later - we spent a good portion of the draft taking players from each other.
As Scott and I discussed on the course, there were three driving issues facing us at the back of the draft:
- Would I get an ace in the first round?
- When do I take my second starter?
- When do I take my two closers?
We've been fixated on the starting pitching pool and how it relates to the NFBC all draft season, culminating in Saturday's event. In my mind Clayton Kershaw is on his own tier, and then the next tier of aces is three deep - Max Scherzer, Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard. I don't believe any of the remaining aces are on that level, and thus I'm uncomfortable passing up on an elite hitter to grab one of them. The problem is that nearly everyone else in the NFBC sees the same dynamic, so those pitchers have getting pushed up the later we get into draft season. In fact, in some of the first weekend Main Events last weekend, those four didn't make it to the 14-spot. So we spent a lot of time mapping out scenarios at our respective spots. I decided that I definitely preferred Mad Max or MadBum over Thor, if I had that choice, enough that I would go ahead and take that pitcher at 14 if two of them were available to choose from. I knew that Ronny/Russ would take a pitcher on the turn if given the chance, but probably wouldn't take both if two came. Still, that pitcher preference was stronger than my hitter preference of those that would likely be available at 14.
Fortunately two aces were available to me - MadBum and Syndergaard, and I took MadBum over Josh Donaldson to prefer the ace over the hitter. Ronny and Russ grabbed Syndergaard and Donaldson as expected, and I happily took Miguel Cabrera at 2.2 (17), who I have virtually even with Donaldson anyhow.
But my work was just starting, in the 15-team Main Event, you really need two aces to carry you, because there's an overall prize and because there's no trading. Otherwise I would be forced to get 3-4 starting pitchers in my top 10, a prospect I was hoping to avoid. Luckily when it got to my next pick (3.14 - 44th overall), there were two such pitchers in that class remaining, and given that it was unlikely that Ronny & Russ were going to take both having taken Syndergaard already, I took my preferred hitter, A.J. Pollock first, and hoped that I would get my first choice in Stephen Strasburg. Alas, those guys took Strasburg (and they said that they would have taken Pollock), so I went with Door #2 in Carlos Martinez. Reliable starting pitching really dries up after that, so I felt fortunate that those choices were still available to me. Two questions asked, two questions answered.
The final question - when do I get my closers - remained. By going with Pollock and not one of Kenley Jansen or Aroldis Chapman at the 3-4 turn, I was relegated into the middle tier of closers. I knew I was going to get one closer at 5.14 - but do I get my second at 6.2 and call it a day, or do I avoid falling too far behind in hitting with the best available bat? By the time my picks (74 & 77) came around, the following closers were already gone:
Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, Zach Britton, Mark Melancon, Seung Hwan Oh, Edwin Diaz and Craig Kimbrel.
I took the next closer on my list, Ken Giles, and decided to go with the best available hitter, Matt Carpenter. Carpenter qualifies at three different positions (1B, 2B, 3B) and will hit in the middle of a potent Cardinals lineup. He checks a lot of boxes for me, though I realize it came at the cost of getting a second top-15 closer. I ultimately waited until 9.14 to take Francisco Rodriguez as my second closer, ending what was for me the end of the third tier - depending on how you feel about Blake Trienen.
Strategic concerns addressed, the bulk of this remaining draft was about filling needs and player evaluations. Here's the full draft grid.
(Rounds 1-15)
(Rounds 16-30)
Oh hey, look, there's David Price! When we last checked on Price, he was on my do not fly list - or at least, had not yet flown list. But at pick 227, he was a full 100 picks below our then consensus rank for Price, and 57 picks below my more pessimistic rank. I have reservations about him being my fourth starting pitcher chosen - but that's more about my draft structure than his draft cost. I think that four months is the break-even point for him - if he's out longer than that, it will be a bad outcome. But I felt that it was time.
This squad is light on speed - that's a consequence of going after guys like Addison Russell and Yasmany Tomas, who provide no speed. To that end, I'm going to need either Kevin Pillar to revert to 2015 form or Ben Revere to earn more playing time and do the same. Otherwise it's going to be vital for me to identify that in FAAB bidding.
I have just the two closers, though Michael Lorenzen might be able to earn a few spare saves - if and when I have him active. I put in a bid on Jason Grilli last night, but my $53 bid fell far short of the winning $112 bid. I'm fine with that, even though I get the hunch that Roberto Osuna's stay on the DL will be more than the minimum 10 days.
Teams that I like beside my own: Team 5 (Jon Stadtmueller), Team 10 (Mike Mager), Team 15 (Ronny & Russ) and Team 7 (Andy Robinson) - sorry to jinx you fellas.
What do you think? Let me know on my Twitter feed.