Category Targets for the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship

The RotoWire Online Championship is an NFBC league with a $350 entry fee, 12-team, 5×5 leagues and a $100K grand prize. A substantial portion of your entry fee goes toward the overall prize pool – you win only $1,500 for first place in your individual league – so it’s imperative to draft with the overall competition in mind. That means balance across all 10 categories as this is a no-trade format (for obvious reasons.) To that end, I ran some numbers from recent seasons to see how much one would need in each category to contend for the overall.

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Overall Steamer Ranks (Without Catcher Adjustment)

Yesterday I ran the Steamer hitter numbers and compared them to NFBC ADP. Today, I quickly ran Steamer’s numbers for pitchers and hitters through my formula, adjusting for closer scarcity in a hypothetical 12-team NFBC league and generated an overall list. I still haven’t adjusted catchers for position scarcity (or reduced DHs), so the hitters are by-the-numbers only. Moreover, I changed the dollar values for hitters slightly as I used a 66/34 split (what I discovered the NFBC drafters were using last year), rather than the 67/33 one I used last night. I also was lazy and just used last year’s $293.36 that was spent on closers for this year’s closer budget.

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Steamer Hitter Rankings With NFBC ADP

Like last year, I ran the Steamer Projections through my imperfect dollar-value formula to generate rankings and dollar values. This year, the NFBC ADP is in the Steamer spreadsheet so it was easy to include that for comparison. A few caveats are in order: (1) The ADP doesn’t line up with the order of the hitters because it’s the NFBC’s overall list, and that includes pitchers; (2) The dollar values reflect a 12-team NFBC style format and my using a 67/33 hitter/pitcher split; and (3) I made no adjustment for positional scarcity, i.e., players are simply valued on their stats whether they’re catchers or designated hitters. (I’ll do subsequent posts at some point with catchers adjusted and pitchers included.)

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Super Bowl 52 Observations

I lost some cash on this game, but enjoyed it nonetheless. There weren’t too many penalties, they got the catch rule right for once, it was well coached and for the most part well played. I was actually planning to watch the 40-minute version of it this morning, but took an afternoon nap and powered through until 3:30 am in real time. I’m a little sluggish today, but I don’t regret it.

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Early MLB Rankings

I finished my baseball rankings early this week, and before I tinker with them any further, I wanted to post this early snapshot. Every time I read other’s people’s opinions on Twitter or discuss why I have a player where I do it forces me to re-think my initial instincts, and I’m sure as we get closer to March I’ll have acquired all kinds of new beliefs and habits that are take me farther from where I started.

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The Big Winner of Lorenzo Cain to the Brewers

Let’s assume the Brewers get above-average defense and an infusion of OBP atop the order from Lorenzo Cain. They will come away happy, even at $80 million over the next five years.

There is another immediate winner following Cain’s decision to sign with Milwaukee.

In early January, the Rangers were linked to Cain.

The move made sense as a great potential landing spot for the free-agent outfielder, as Texas seemingly needed a solution in center field after squeezing 2.3 WAR out of Carlos Gomez in 105 games on a one-year deal last season.

Perhaps they already had their solution on the roster.

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