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Pitcher Rankings Based on Steamer

I ran the Steamer pitching projections through my basic formula which compares players across categories based on standard deviations above replacement in each category. The merits of the approach are it generates a good overall value based on the projected the player pool. The weakness is it doesn't account for the way people actually fill their pitching slots, i.e., it assumes everyone's trying to maximize overall value of the nine slots rather than doing so for seven while separately trying to score well in saves in the last two. As a result, one-dimensional closers - those projected to help in saves but little else - are ranked lower than they would be in a typical draft or auction.

Moreover, I'm not suggesting you use this as a draft-sheet - Steamer has a lot of assumptions about health and role built in that turn out to be inaccurate. But overall, Steamer has proven to be the most reliable of all the projections systems, so it's a good starting point to compare relative values. Finally, I used a $260 budget, 12-team, nine-pitchers-per-active-roster set-up to get the dollar values with a 30 percent allocation of total budget toward pitching.

Here are the rankings:

RankPitcher$RankPitcher$RankPitcher$RankPitcher$
1Clayton Kershaw48.4151Matt Moore7.00101Bartolo Colon0.10151Jim Johnson-4.31
2Max Scherzer35.1152Ken Giles6.79102A.J. Ramos-0.10152Matt Bush-4.44
3Noah Syndergaard29.4053Seung Hwan Oh6.69103Sam Dyson-0.10153Corey Knebel-4.42
4Madison Bumgarner28.8154Drew Smyly6.61104Taijuan Walker-0.10154Jhoulys Chacin-4.36
5Chris Sale26.3755Matt Harvey6.46105Fernando Rodney-0.18155Wade Miley-4.29
6Corey Kluber24.3656Vince Velasquez6.30106Jharel Cotton-0.21156Jordan Zimmermann-4.39
7Stephen Strasburg22.6757Garrett Richards5.90107Mike Leake-0.25157Edinson Volquez-4.42
8Jon Lester22.5258Marcus Stroman5.56108Jerad Eickhoff-0.35158Carter Capps-4.70
9Johnny Cueto21.7559Julio Teheran5.59109Sean Manaea-0.54159Nick Vincent-4.69
10David Price21.2260Felix Hernandez5.62110Francisco Liriano-0.55160Tyson Ross-4.59
11Carlos Carrasco21.1461Gio Gonzalez5.49111Kyle Barraclough-0.76161Trevor Bauer-4.58
12Justin Verlander20.5262Jon Gray5.52112Francisco Rodriguez-0.80162Zack Wheeler-4.76
13Chris Archer20.4263Jose De Leon5.28113Lance Lynn-1.07163Junior Guerra-4.55
14Yu Darvish20.0364Kevin Gausman5.30114Mike Fiers-1.01164Ty Blach-4.89
15Jake Arrieta18.1865Kelvin Herrera5.11115Sonny Gray-1.04165Brad Boxberger-5.03
16Kenley Jansen14.3766Roberto Osuna5.07116Tyler Anderson-1.04166Will Harris-5.27
17Jacob deGrom14.2567Jeurys Familia5.03117Tyler Glasnow-1.13167Daniel Norris-5.22
18Rich Hill13.9768Dellin Betances4.77118Tanner Roark-1.19168Ryan Pressly-5.37
19Dallas Keuchel13.9769Raisel Iglesias4.74119Jeremy Hellickson-1.24169Homer Bailey-5.42
20Aroldis Chapman13.8270Alex Wood4.48120Greg Holland-1.43170Joaquin Benoit-5.53
21Lance McCullers13.7671Collin McHugh4.59121Hunter Strickland-1.70171Adam Conley-5.47
22Kyle Hendricks12.8672Cam Bedrosian4.42122Mike Montgomery-2.10172Clay Buchholz-5.62
23Michael Pineda12.8373Michael Fulmer3.96123Brandon McCarthy-2.16173Blake Treinen-5.72
24Matt Shoemaker12.4074Adam Wainwright3.75124Mike Foltynewicz-2.04174Jason Hammel-5.58
25Masahiro Tanaka12.3075Jake Odorizzi3.17125Michael Wacha-2.16175CC Sabathia-5.86
26Gerrit Cole12.1776David Robertson3.04126Zach Davies-2.15176Darren O'Day-6.04
27Jameson Taillon11.9877Blake Snell2.94127Adam Ottavino-2.52177Shelby Miller-5.88
28Danny Duffy12.0578Alex Colome2.80128Nate Jones-2.78178Jason Vargas-5.93
29Danny Salazar12.0479Cody Allen2.55129Hector Neris-2.76179Dan Straily-5.96
30Robbie Ray11.9180Anthony DeSclafani2.59130David Phelps-2.82180Patrick Corbin-6.20
31Jeff Samardzija11.7681Tony Watson2.39131R.A. Dickey-2.67181Marco Estrada-6.16
32James Paxton11.6082Joe Ross2.35132Archie Bradley-2.65182Mike Clevinger-6.35
33Andrew Miller11.3383Carlos Rodon2.27133Brett Cecil-3.14183Brandon Kintzler-6.41
34Carlos Martinez10.8384Hisashi Iwakuma2.15134Eduardo Rodriguez-2.98184Tyler Duffey-6.69
35Steven Matz10.5385Julio Urias2.07135Luke Gregerson-3.15185Dylan Bundy-6.55
36Jose Quintana10.5786Jaime Garcia2.03136Ryan Madson-3.07186Jeanmar Gomez-6.88
37Zack Greinke9.8987Scott Kazmir1.50137Felipe Rivero-3.18187Jake Barrett-7.13
38Edwin Diaz9.7588Brandon Maurer1.46138Alex Cobb-3.13188Andrew Triggs-7.17
39Wade Davis9.5189Grant Dayton1.28139Hector Rondon-3.33189Luis Perdomo-7.38
40Aaron Nola9.3790Drew Pomeranz1.28140Luis Severino-3.49190Robert Gsellman-7.96
41Rick Porcello8.9991J.A. Happ1.35141Chad Green-3.50191Nate Karns-8.02
42Kenta Maeda8.7092Ivan Nova1.21142Trevor May-3.55192Luke Weaver-8.31
43Cole Hamels8.8593Sean Doolittle1.06143Brad Hand-3.76193Cody Reed-8.42
44Zach Britton8.1294Ian Kennedy1.25144Ervin Santana-3.52194Matt Boyd-8.42
45Tyler Skaggs8.1195Neftali Feliz0.69145Jesse Chavez-3.73195Brett Anderson-8.66
46John Lackey8.1196Aaron Sanchez0.82146Addison Reed-3.93196Chad Kuhl-8.66
47Mark Melancon7.8597Ricky Nolasco0.69147Drew Hutchison-4.02197Brandon Finnegan-8.53
48Craig Kimbrel7.8998Matt Andriese0.54148Charlie Morton-3.96198Scott Feldman-9.00
49Shawn Kelley7.8699Arodys Vizcaino0.44149Josh Tomlin-4.06199Tom Koehler-9.05
50Wei-Yin Chen7.78100Koji Uehara0.26150Alex Meyer-4.06200Reynaldo Lopez-9.31

A couple things that were noteworthy to me:

• Clayton Kershaw is miles ahead of everyone else, worth more than Corey Kluber and Stephen Strasburg combined. But Max Scherzer is also his own tier. And the idea that there's an elite tier of starting pitchers and then everyone else is supported by these projections.

• Andrew Miller is unexpectedly high, partly because he's projected for 20 saves along with his elite ratios. I still think he's problematic in a 12-team mixed league if he's not getting regular saves because you'll find good streaming matchups that give you better overall numbers than the players on this list, but ranking him No. 33 overall, Steamer disagrees.