PPR vs Standard ADP: Wide Receivers

There is quite a bit of noise in this early August wide receiver ADP, especially compared to the running back numbers I surveyed Tuesday. So, I broke the data into three segments to get a clearer picture. As always, the PPR draft positions come from NFCC and standard data via Yahoo.

Favored in PPR Leagues

Player Standard PPR +/-
Donte Moncrief (WR, Ind) 80.4 37.4 43.0
Corey Coleman (WR, Cle) 122.1 85.3 36.8
Willie Snead (WR, NO) 116.2 81.6 34.6
Michael Crabtree (WR, Oak) 98.9 65.7 33.2
Travis Benjamin (WR, SD) 130.0 97.4 32.6
Kevin White (WR, Chi) 101.7 69.3 32.4
John Brown (WR, Ari) 84.2 53.0 31.2
Jordan Matthews (WR, Phi) 69.6 39.9 29.7
Marvin Jones (WR, Det) 98.6 69.1 29.5
DeVante Parker (WR, Mia) 80.1 51.4 28.7
Emmanuel Sanders (WR, Den) 82.0 53.9 28.1
Jarvis Landry (WR, Mia) 51.3 24.3 27.0
Markus Wheaton (WR, Pit) 117.7 92.0 25.7
Tyler Lockett (WR, Sea) 87.8 65.9 21.9
Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG) 104.1 82.9 21.2
Michael Floyd (WR, Ari) 69.0 48.3 20.7
Golden Tate (WR, Det) 49.9 29.6 20.3
Jeremy Maclin (WR, KC) 53.1 33.4 19.7
Larry Fitzgerald (WR, Ari) 63.7 44.7 19.0
Allen Hurns (WR, Jax) 74.6 55.7 18.9

At first glance you’ll notice the lack of fantasy football’s perennial target monsters at the top of this table. Jarvis Landry, who topped the list in 2015, is down a ways. Other guys like Julian Edelman don’t show up until later. The entire WR pool is getting a bigger push than ever in 2016, which is creating even wider margins for PPR drafts.

Part of what we’re seeing here is NFFC drafters, which consist of more “expert” users, gambling on younger talent and bypassing conventional rankings to find home runs. Yahoo’s more casual base might not be quite as eager to go off script to select breakout darlings like Donte Moncrief and Tyler Locket, or players who haven’t taken an NFL snap like Corey Coleman, Sterling Sheppard and Kevin White.

Donte Moncrief, IND (+43.0)
I had to double check this one to make sure I didn’t screw something up transcribing the ADP into my spreadsheet. Moncrief is the 24th receiver off the board in PPR drafts compared to 31st in standard leagues, so the differential might not be as large as it looks with only seven of the 43 players in between being fellow WR’s. T.Y. Hilton is still the No.1 guy in Indy, even though Moncrief has developed quite a bit from the raw prospect we saw at Ole Miss.

Jarvis Landry, MIA (+27.0)
Landry shows up with over a two round bump in PPR leagues. He should continue to utilize his short area quicks to get open and extremely reliable hands in what should be a high volume passing attack under new coach Adam Gase. In 2015, Landry dropped only five passes in 166 targets and let just two balls hit the ground in 2014.

Slightly Favored in PPR Leagues

Player Standard PPR +/-
Randall Cobb (WR, GB) 45.5 29.7 15.8
Stefon Diggs (WR, Min) 122.5 109.4 13.1
DeSean Jackson (WR, Was) 89.6 76.6 13.0
Keenan Allen (WR, SD) 24.5 12.7 11.8
Laquon Treadwell (WR, Min) 125.4 114.1 11.3
Brandin Cooks (WR, NO) 26.7 15.7 11.0
Torrey Smith (WR, SF) 117.9 107.4 10.5
T.Y. Hilton (WR, Ind) 32.0 23.3 8.7
Kelvin Benjamin (WR, Car) 44.1 36.0 8.1
Amari Cooper (WR, Oak) 27.8 20.3 7.5
Jordy Nelson (WR, GB) 20.5 13.4 7.1
Mike Evans (WR, TB) 24.6 17.6 7.0
A.J. Green (WR, Cin) 13.0 6.4 6.6
Doug Baldwin (WR, Sea) 46.1 40.1 6.0
Demaryius Thomas (WR, Den) 29.0 24.3 4.7
Sammy Watkins (WR, Buf) 33.6 29.1 4.5
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Hou) 8.9 4.6 4.3
Julian Edelman (WR, NE) 37.7 34.1 3.6
Vincent Jackson (WR, TB) 126.9 123.4 3.5
Allen Robinson (WR, Jax) 14.7 11.6 3.1
Dez Bryant (WR, Dal) 12.0 9.3 2.7
Julio Jones (WR, Atl) 4.9 2.3 2.6
Phillip Dorsett (WR, Ind) 135.3 132.9 2.4
Tavon Austin (WR, LA) 107.8 105.7 2.1
Antonio Brown (WR, Pit) 1.2 1.0 0.2

A lot of players in this second group are the cream of the WR crop. Thus, even a modest bump in ADP can signify a pretty major change in value from one format to the other.

Keenan Allen, SD (+11.8)
Allen’s 2015 was cut short after only eight games. If you extrapolate his 67 catches for 725 yards four touchdowns to a full 16 game schedule, you get a silly 134/1450/8 pace. Phillip Rivers loves throwing to Allen, but again, health has dogged the 24-year-old for his entire football career dating back to college.

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Brandin Cooks, NO (+11.0)
Like Allen, Cooks jumps from an early third round pick to an early second. He checks off all the boxes for a prime PPR receiver with supreme quicks and an elite quarterback in a high volume offense. The 22-year-old also has the added teaser of a potential third-year breakout that has been so common among NFL wide receivers. Even if his numbers plateau from 2015, you’re looking at a 84/1138/9 season. It’s a good bet that Cooks will best his reception totals from a year ago, although his nine TD catches could regress. His teammate and downfield compliment, Willie Snead, shows up even higher on the list with a +34.6 PPR differential.

Favored in Standard Leagues

Player Standard PPR +/-
Eric Decker (WR, NYJ) 45.1 45.3 -0.2
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, NYG) 2.5 2.7 -0.2
Dorial Green-Beckham (WR, Ten) 123.7 124.3 -0.6
Josh Gordon (WR, Cle) 99.8 100.7 -0.9
Alshon Jeffery (WR, Chi) 20.2 21.4 -1.2
Kamar Aiken (WR, Bal) 129.1 130.4 -1.3
Brandon Marshall (WR, NYJ) 16.6 19.1 -2.5
Mohamed Sanu (WR, Atl) 131.5 136.1 -4.6
Steve Smith Sr. (WR, Bal) 118.7 124.3 -5.6
Michael Thomas (WR, NO) 129.0 139.3 -10.3
Sammie Coates (WR, Pit) 127.4 139.1 -11.7
Mike Wallace (WR, Bal) 129.5 146.1 -16.6
Chris Hogan (WR, NE) 126.6 149.3 -22.7
Pierre Garcon (WR, Was) 127.1 152.7 -25.6
Rishard Matthews (WR, Ten) 130.9 157.0 -26.1
Devin Funchess (WR, Car) 129.3 164.0 -34.7
Terrance Williams (WR, Dal) 126.3 163.9 -37.6
Victor Cruz (WR, NYG) 123.6 162.6 -39.0
Josh Doctson (WR, Was) 115.8 162.4 -46.6

Chris Hogan, NE (-22.7)
Hogan didn’t set the world on fire in Buffalo, putting up a career-high 41/426/4 line in 2014.  What the fourth-year receiver does have going for him is the skill set and opportunity to thrive in New England’s scheme. It would seem that PPR-leaguers should be more eager to fill out their roster with a guy that could win a job as Tom Brady’s No. 2 receiver.

Devin Funchess, CAR (-34.7)
This one makes a ton of sense. While he finished his rookie season strong in 2015 and could be a starter entering 2016, he’s on one of the slowest-paced offenses in the NFL and has to compete for looks with veteran TE Greg Olson and returning WR Kelvin Benjamin, who is already a better version of Funchess.