Steamer Hitter Rankings With NFBC ADP

Like last year, I ran the Steamer Projections through my imperfect dollar-value formula to generate rankings and dollar values. This year, the NFBC ADP is in the Steamer spreadsheet so it was easy to include that for comparison. A few caveats are in order: (1) The ADP doesn’t line up with the order of the hitters because it’s the NFBC’s overall list, and that includes pitchers; (2) The dollar values reflect a 12-team NFBC style format and my using a 67/33 hitter/pitcher split; and (3) I made no adjustment for positional scarcity, i.e., players are simply valued on their stats whether they’re catchers or designated hitters. (I’ll do subsequent posts at some point with catchers adjusted and pitchers included.)

Here are the results:

Name ADP $ Name ADP $ Name ADP $
Mike Trout 1.1 46.78 Brandon Belt 304.1 7.95 Albert Almora Jr. 375.9 -5.42
Giancarlo Stanton 9 43.09 Didi Gregorius 113.9 7.91 Jose Pirela 387.1 -5.52
Nolan Arenado 5.3 37.99 Delino DeShields 220.8 7.77 Mikie Mahtook 335 -6.05
Manny Machado 19.1 35.56 Brett Gardner 180.8 7.69 J.P. Crawford 378.6 -6.14
Trea Turner 5.2 35.55 Ryan Braun 111.9 7.67 Jordy Mercer 505 -6.60
Bryce Harper 8.4 34.91 Ian Happ 139.7 7.63 Hunter Renfroe 298 -6.63
Mookie Betts 8.6 34.83 Yoan Moncada 134.3 7.57 Raimel Tapia 389.2 -6.85
Paul Goldschmidt 4.3 34.17 Chris Davis 248.1 7.34 Lonnie Chisenhall 390.1 -7.21
Jose Altuve 2.1 33.44 Kole Calhoun 285.4 7.21 Jose Martinez 279 -7.45
Kris Bryant 15.5 31.47 Matt Carpenter 185.4 7.08 Jonathan Lucroy 180 -7.92
Charlie Blackmon 8.4 31.38 Jay Bruce 163.8 7.06 Nick Delmonico 460.9 -8.11
Anthony Rizzo 24.7 31.14 Jorge Polanco 204.8 7.04 Curtis Granderson 527 -8.29
Francisco Lindor 21.3 30.66 Paul DeJong 150.6 6.98 Lewis Brinson 333.8 -8.38
Jose Ramirez 19.5 28.68 Willson Contreras 53.7 6.97 Brad Miller 459.9 -8.46
Josh Donaldson 28.5 27.06 Cesar Hernandez 252.7 6.75 Logan Forsythe 427.5 -8.60
Carlos Correa 13.9 26.73 Gregory Bird 154.9 6.67 Martin Prado 551.4 -8.66
Joey Votto 18.5 26.52 Josh Reddick 264.1 6.64 Ben Gamel 424.8 -8.79
Christian Yelich 69 26.49 Manuel Margot 149.8 6.63 Dansby Swanson 385.4 -8.84
Jose Abreu 42.8 25.95 Jose Peraza 201.7 6.12 Steve Pearce 551.1 -8.89
Starling Marte 50.8 25.57 Jackie Bradley Jr. 282.7 5.82 Russell Martin 321 -9.24
George Springer 31 25.14 Kyle Schwarber 185.1 5.66 Carlos Gonzalez 287.7 -9.49
Marcell Ozuna 48.3 24.64 Dexter Fowler 254.6 5.49 Chad Pinder 439.3 -9.74
Nelson Cruz 54.2 24.34 Matt Chapman 280.6 5.01 Miguel Andujar 469.4 -9.90
Aaron Judge 17.6 24.30 Billy Hamilton 58.6 4.98 Brian McCann 215.2 -9.93
Andrew Benintendi 42.2 23.98 Josh Harrison 267.1 4.95 Jose Iglesias 519.6 -9.99
Rhys Hoskins 50.8 23.86 Salvador Perez 98.7 4.95 Wilson Ramos 166.3 -10.26
Freddie Freeman 22.1 23.14 Scott Schebler 276.8 4.87 Jeimer Candelario 337.7 -10.29
Brian Dozier 38.5 22.87 Michael Brantley 250.5 4.84 Seth Smith 679 -10.37
Eric Hosmer 68.4 22.70 Starlin Castro 258.5 4.65 Robinson Chirinos 266.7 -10.51
Cody Bellinger 24.5 22.36 Kendrys Morales 297.7 4.38 Jarrod Dyson 430.3 -10.69
Alex Bregman 33.2 22.15 Michael Conforto 170.3 4.20 Boog Powell 576.2 -11.18
J.D. Martinez 24.2 21.93 Mitch Haniger 212.1 4.03 Austin Hedges 273.4 -11.28
Edwin Encarnacion 56.6 20.35 Willie Calhoun 271.4 3.99 James McCann 309.7 -11.40
Jonathan Schoop 62.8 20.10 Andrelton Simmons 187.3 3.92 Colin Moran 502.8 -11.73
Corey Seager 39 19.83 Jedd Gyorko 355.4 3.85 Matt Duffy 478.3 -11.95
Robinson Cano 83 19.48 Orlando Arcia 189.4 3.66 Yangervis Solarte 274.8 -12.13
Andrew McCutchen 83.3 19.19 Randal Grichuk 356.7 3.43 Derek Dietrich 514 -12.16
Wil Myers 71.7 19.11 Todd Frazier 287.4 3.16 Alcides Escobar 546.1 -12.18
Ian Desmond 114.4 18.47 Jason Kipnis 260.2 3.13 Christian Vazquez 285.6 -12.22
A.J. Pollock 63.3 18.16 Bradley Zimmer 204.9 2.97 Wilmer Flores 322.6 -12.35
Dee Gordon 28.1 17.98 Joe Panik 376.5 2.96 Chris Owings 229.6 -12.44
DJ LeMahieu 129.7 17.96 J.T. Realmuto 103.4 2.68 Johan Camargo 442.1 -12.52
Khris Davis 69.4 17.75 Kevin Pillar 318.3 2.57 Chase Headley 407.3 -12.59
Joey Gallo 115.9 17.64 Mitch Moreland 402 2.45 Derek Fisher 421.3 -12.84
Nomar Mazara 160.5 17.40 Adam Duvall 170 2.42 Austin Barnes 186.3 -13.05
Rougned Odor 110.9 17.40 Max Kepler 273 2.34 Carlos Gomez 340 -13.19
Justin Upton 46.6 16.88 Joe Mauer 392 1.47 Austin Jackson 581.4 -13.21
Yoenis Cespedes 96.4 16.81 Brandon Crawford 327.9 1.27 Travis d’Arnaud 290.9 -13.28
Anthony Rendon 57.8 16.36 Marwin Gonzalez 114.7 1.23 Brandon Drury 419.2 -13.28
Justin Turner 85.7 16.24 Stephen Piscotty 297.6 1.08 Cameron Maybin 374.3 -13.30
Miguel Cabrera 94.1 16.18 David Dahl 247.4 0.67 Jesse Winker 323.7 -13.37
Elvis Andrus 56.4 16.15 Evan Gattis 156.9 0.67 Matt Davidson 451 -13.42
Adam Jones 145.7 15.65 Jed Lowrie 427.1 0.61 Tyler Flowers 303 -13.46
Yasiel Puig 112.2 15.31 Corey Dickerson 216 0.45 Dixon Machado 599.2 -13.54
Eddie Rosario 118.4 15.16 Michael Taylor 217.8 0.43 Paulo Orlando 685.5 -13.59
Carlos Santana 172.8 14.88 Ronald Acuna 133.2 0.04 Jon Jay 616.4 -13.60
Gary Sanchez 20.7 14.86 Aaron Altherr 251 0.04 Freddy Galvis 362.9 -13.75
Lorenzo Cain 99 14.85 Mark Trumbo 248.8 -0.01 Jacoby Ellsbury 423.4 -13.78
Xander Bogaerts 86.4 14.83 Jorge Soler 472.8 -0.13 Denard Span 447 -13.96
Kyle Seager 134.2 14.42 Dustin Pedroia 438 -0.20 Gerardo Parra 333.2 -14.00
Tommy Pham 61.4 14.03 Aaron Hicks 237 -0.21 Matt Holliday 657.9 -14.10
Domingo Santana 74.8 14.03 Addison Russell 250.4 -0.34 Gleyber Torres 280.5 -14.14
Nick Castellanos 103.7 13.84 Brandon Phillips 373.2 -0.58 Mike Napoli 545.3 -14.34
Justin Smoak 147.2 13.70 Hunter Pence 454.1 -0.64 Ronald Torreyes 495.1 -14.59
Whit Merrifield 70.6 13.63 Cheslor Cuthbert 577.8 -0.76 Kennys Vargas 610.7 -15.01
Kevin Kiermaier 159.3 13.54 Asdrubal Cabrera 305.8 -0.81 Jason Castro 374.8 -15.02
Josh Bell 178.2 13.40 Ketel Marte 355.4 -0.90 Raul Mondesi 334.3 -15.11
Daniel Murphy 67.2 13.37 Neil Walker 411.5 -1.10 Leonys Martin 495.4 -15.15
Adrian Beltre 158.9 13.28 Scooter Gennett 197.6 -1.13 Enrique Hernandez 514.1 -15.22
Jake Lamb 117.8 13.09 Zack Cozart 225.6 -1.18 Austin Meadows 514.2 -15.27
Byron Buxton 53 13.08 Albert Pujols 311 -1.25 Yasmani Grandal 226.6 -15.42
Evan Longoria 198.7 13.01 Amed Rosario 232.8 -1.43 Welington Castillo 174.6 -15.48
Mike Moustakas 109.8 12.79 Jason Heyward 408.2 -1.64 Adam Engel 669.2 -15.50
Odubel Herrera 212.4 12.34 Melky Cabrera 303.2 -1.94 Tucker Barnhart 326.6 -15.69
Trey Mancini 158.4 11.37 Eduardo Nunez 129.9 -2.09 Hunter Dozier 587.7 -15.76
Trevor Story 115.1 11.28 Ben Zobrist 450.9 -2.24 Yunel Escobar 649 -15.77
Rafael Devers 128.3 11.02 Kolten Wong 377.2 -2.29 Francisco Cervelli 437.3 -15.79
Jean Segura 78.4 10.95 Tim Beckham 270 -2.99 Yolmer Sanchez 422.2 -16.24
Shin-Soo Choo 253.4 10.87 Steven Souza Jr. 180.5 -3.00 Eduardo Escobar 429.5 -16.48
Avisail Garcia 192.2 10.78 Devon Travis 404.6 -3.01 Matt Wieters 319.7 -16.52
Matt Olson 120.7 10.66 Yadier Molina 148.7 -3.03 Adeiny Hechavarria 535.4 -16.62
Yulieski Gurriel 207.5 10.51 Jorge Bonifacio 399.1 -3.07 Cory Spangenberg 384.3 -16.86
Travis Shaw 94.6 10.24 Jonathan Villar 187.8 -3.25 Alex Avila 416.8 -17.08
Adam Eaton 155.1 10.03 Joc Pederson 369.2 -3.29 Dominic Smith 410.2 -17.12
Eric Thames 187.1 10.03 Adam Frazier 402 -3.63 Martin Maldonado 399.6 -17.24
David Peralta 253.3 9.66 Yasmany Tomas 315.8 -3.80 Robbie Grossman 636.7 -17.27
Ender Inciarte 118.5 9.59 Tim Anderson 193.1 -3.84 Chris Iannetta 297 -17.45
Gregory Polanco 163.4 9.26 Lucas Duda 445.4 -3.93 Carlos Asuaje 605.5 -17.79
Buster Posey 59.7 9.20 Victor Martinez 552.6 -3.94 J.T. Riddle 673 -18.20
Chris Taylor 91.7 8.94 Nick Markakis 428.7 -4.06 Luis Valbuena 538.7 -18.25
Marcus Semien 230.5 8.93 Logan Morrison 286.8 -4.25 Jose Reyes 315.4 -18.46
Maikel Franco 236.6 8.90 Yonder Alonso 306.8 -4.35 Stephen Vogt 341 -18.48
Justin Bour 192.2 8.62 Troy Tulowitzki 380.3 -4.41 Matt Adams 467.8 -18.52
Eugenio Suarez 190.6 8.47 Austin Hays 361.3 -4.60 Magneuris Sierra 555 -18.62
Ian Kinsler 191.1 8.30 Alex Gordon 517.3 -4.74 Brandon Nimmo 525.2 -18.84
Javier Baez 102.3 8.29 Ryon Healy 192.9 -4.76 Shohei Ohtani 75 -18.91
Miguel Sano 97.7 8.18 Mike Zunino 163.9 -4.85 Daniel Robertson 692.7 -19.03
Hanley Ramirez 328.1 8.11 Nick Williams 271.1 -5.22 Yan Gomes 384.9 -19.10
Ozzie Albies 145 8.04 C.J. Cron 394.8 -5.25 Jake Marisnick 527.9 -19.54
Ryan Zimmerman 126.2 7.97 Matt Joyce 492.7 -5.32 Bruce Maxwell 456.1 -19.58

Steamer apparently likes Giancarlo Stanton, Manny Machado, Christian Yelich, Starling Marte, Eric Hosmer, Ian Desmond, Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara, among others, more than the NFBC drafters. It dislikes Jose Altuve, Aaron Judge, Freddie Freeman, J.D. Martinez, Dee Gordon, Justin Upton, Elvis Andrus and Byron Buxton, among others, relative to NFBC ADP.

Here are some players NFBC drafters are taking on whom Steamer was especially low, though a lot of that has to do with playing time projections:

Player ADP $
Jorge Alfaro 254.3 -23.10
Keon Broxton 285.3 -25.12
Matt Kemp 290.8 -33.48
Victor Robles 313.3 -27.55
Teoscar Hernandez 318.4 -26.85
Francisco Mejia 345.6 -29.22
Mallex Smith 347.7 -19.69
Chance Sisco 348.6 -22.12
Scott Kingery 349.4 -27.83
Kurt Suzuki 349.6 -19.74
Hernan Perez 359.6 -22.18
Manny Pina 364.5 -22.84
Ryan McMahon 370.3 -26.11
Nick Senzel 384.4 -34.83
Jose Bautista 384.4 -34.85
Mark Reynolds 384.8 -34.84
Dustin Fowler 404.3 -30.86
Eloy Jimenez 430.4 -27.38
Wilmer Difo 442 -21.13
Tom Murphy 445.8 -26.27
Franklin Barreto 457.2 -28.72
Clint Frazier 464.4 -26.51
Charlie Tilson 465.9 -33.34
Brett Phillips 471.3 -33.31
Aledmys Diaz 474.8 -20.45
Caleb Joseph 488.9 -21.77
Yandy Diaz 489 -20.49
Cameron Rupp 492.6 -21.71
Adam Lind 492.8 -34.83
Devin Mesoraco 495.3 -20.56

For example, Matt Kemp is projected for 13 ABs for some reason and Keon Broxton only 134. Even players like Yasiel Puig, on whom Steamer is relatively high, gets only 447 at-bats. As good as Steamer has been, you’re better off using it as a basis for cross-referencing with your own rankings rather than a wholesale substitute.