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Steamer vs. NFBC Part III - Hitters

Last week, I looked made another pass at the pitcher valuations, using NFBC parameters and Steamer projections, while separating out closers. Here, I'll do the same thing with hitters and catchers, respectively.

The problem with catchers is you need to roster two of them, but they can't be treated as regular hitters because the replacement level for the position (roughly 24th-30th catcher) is far lower than the replacement value at the other positions. Moreover,  people (including me) sometimes don't even draft their catchers until they've filled bench spots at other positions. In short, when someone drafts a premium catcher, you need to compare that pick to this lower catcher baseline rather than the baseline for non-catcher hitters.

As such, I took the Steamer projections for the top-30 NFBC-drafted catchers, used the 24th-30th as the baseline and figured out the value above replacement (VORP) for all of them in each category. I then divided those totals by the standard deviations in their respective categories among all hitters to get a per-category contribution (plus or minus) for each and added the five of them for a total value.

To convert that value into dollars, I needed to come up with a catcher budget, something I was able to do by adding all the catchers drafted in the top-300 by NFBC owners and using the dollar value I'd assigned to each slot in this piece. The total catcher budget came out to a meager $145.17, roughly half of the closer budget for roughly the same number of players. That $145.17 should be distributed among the drafted catcher pool, according the the Steamer projections as run through my formula, as follows:

NFBC ADPPlayer$
1Buster Posey16.66
2Gary Sanchez18.30
3Jonathan Lucroy12.75
4Willson Contreras8.77
5J.T. Realmuto8.04
6Evan Gattis9.37
7Yasmani Grandal8.80
8Russell Martin6.09
9Salvador Perez11.26
10Brian McCann6.40
11Welington Castillo4.05
12Yadier Molina8.91
13Stephen Vogt9.27
14Matt Wieters4.07
15Wilson Ramos4.12
16Cameron Rupp0.97
17Francisco Cervelli2.45
18Travis d'Arnaud1.67
19Devin Mesoraco-1.29
20Sandy Leon-2.12
21Mike Zunino3.28
22Austin Hedges3.73
23Yan Gomes2.25
24Tom Murphy-2.62
25James McCann0.41
26Tyler Flowers-0.48
27Chris Herrmann-3.04
28Jett Bandy-1.87
29*Jason Castro1.18

As you can see, even when you adjust catchers for scarcity and assume a two-catcher league,  none is even a $20 value (or fourth-round pick.) Moreover, like closers, after the top-two, there's a significant drop-off to the rest, so much so that only Lucroy is even a top-10 round pick, and barely at that. If these valuations (as well as the meager budget afforded to catchers by NFBC drafters) are accurate, I feel fairly justified in not drafting a catcher unless one falls significantly below ADP until very late in the end game as I did here and especially here.

Remember, the baseline, scrub catcher you draft is not who you'll likely end up with - you'll cycle through low-end options until you find someone useful, meaning replacement value is actually slightly higher than what's represented here and even closer to catchers 12-24 than it looks. I'm punting the position all draft season unless I find an unlikely bargain.

(*For some reason, I left the 30th catcher off my catcher-only list, but he would have been worth between $-3 and $1 probably, so it's not affecting the overall numbers. )

What about the rest of the hitting pool once you remove catchers? How does it affect everyone else?

RkPlayer$RkPlayer$RkPlayer$
1Mike Trout42.4685Jake Lamb8.54169Joe Panik0.60
2Mookie Betts38.7386Brad Miller9.87170Shin-Soo Choo8.89
3Jose Altuve33.5987Ben Zobrist5.48171Tyler Naquin-3.79
4Kris Bryant29.8688Adam Duvall6.87172Chris Owings-10.94
5Nolan Arenado33.5489Byron Buxton3.40173Aaron Judge-2.71
6Paul Goldschmidt28.8090Adrian Gonzalez9.00174Danny Valencia-5.84
7Manny Machado35.2091Jonathan Schoop10.00175Derek Norris-32.21
8Josh Donaldson27.6492Kendrys Morales13.55176Travis Shaw-5.54
9Bryce Harper31.6893Yasmany Tomas4.73177Martin Prado5.01
10Anthony Rizzo30.0194Carlos Gomez9.37178Mitch Moreland-3.44
11Trea Turner31.6595Dexter Fowler6.15179Kolten Wong-2.31
12Miguel Cabrera33.5996Dansby Swanson4.15180Adonis Garcia-6.80
13Charlie Blackmon26.5397Brandon Belt8.15181Lucas Duda0.10
14Carlos Correa24.0798Elvis Andrus6.29182Alex Gordon0.84
15Corey Seager21.9799Tim Anderson10.40183Howie Kendrick-0.62
16Joey Votto22.28100Kole Calhoun13.09184Brandon Moss4.09
17Edwin Encarnacion17.54101Marcell Ozuna10.77185Denard Span4.47
18Starling Marte20.84102Nick Castellanos5.21186Matt Duffy0.97
19Jonathan Villar21.48103Nomar Mazara8.45187Alcides Escobar1.80
20Freddie Freeman22.01104Jay Bruce0.50188Nick Markakis2.94
21Robinson Cano22.94105Michael Brantley1.88189Freddy Galvis-15.80
22Francisco Lindor20.97106Hunter Pence3.11190Jurickson Profar-5.27
23George Springer20.84107Kevin Kiermaier11.02191Andrew Toles-6.98
24Xander Bogaerts21.70108Ryon Healy8.26192Mallex Smith-15.76
25Trevor Story15.20109Hunter Renfroe3.46193Mitch Haniger-1.53
26Brian Dozier18.30110Keon Broxton3.09194Steven Souza Jr.-1.73
27A.J. Pollock16.51111Carlos Beltran7.92195Jayson Werth-0.34
28Giancarlo Stanton21.79112Devon Travis3.68196Pablo Sandoval-2.12
29Nelson Cruz23.17113Marcus Semien8.27197Jorge Polanco-1.17
30Rougned Odor23.74114Eric Thames20.96198Melvin Upton Jr.-13.07
31Daniel Murphy19.23115Joc Pederson8.36199Ben Revere-21.55
32Ryan Braun18.63116Brandon Crawford1.13200Michael Saunders-1.73
33J.D. Martinez18.40117Yasiel Puig9.40201Sean Rodriguez-32.21
34Wil Myers16.72118Tommy Joseph13.18202Scott Schebler-0.52
35Jose Abreu21.75119Mike Moustakas13.35203Roman Quinn-24.70
36Yoenis Cespedes17.39120Mike Napoli6.83204Eddie Rosario-6.74
37Dee Gordon14.25121Logan Forsythe7.29205Alex Dickerson-9.18
38Carlos Gonzalez24.14122Ender Inciarte7.67206Zack Cozart-5.49
39Jean Segura14.94123Victor Martinez14.28207Jefry Marte-26.26
40Christian Yelich19.82124Randal Grichuk5.92208Joey Gallo-19.69
41Kyle Seager16.40125Rajai Davis8.26209Joe Mauer3.93
42Andrew McCutchen20.62126Hernan Perez-5.62210Danny Espinosa-8.02
43Matt Carpenter13.62127Max Kepler6.94211Ryan Zimmerman-0.76
44Gregory Polanco16.34128Jedd Gyorko0.66212Andrelton Simmons-1.91
45Ian Kinsler14.19129Neil Walker5.28213Dan Vogelbach-10.95
46Todd Frazier16.02130Gregory Bird7.47214Hyun Soo Kim-2.83
47Hanley Ramirez16.52131Jacoby Ellsbury4.71215Brett Lawrie-32.21
48Chris Davis17.74132Manuel Margot0.46216Tucker Barnhart-21.17
49Kyle Schwarber16.07133Melky Cabrera11.97217Raul Mondesi-15.48
50Mark Trumbo17.42134Starlin Castro4.94218Charlie Tilson-7.14
51Alex Bregman13.32135Chris Carter-2.73219A.J. Reed-24.47
52Billy Hamilton12.10136Yoan Moncada-14.66220Wilmer Flores-8.47
53Adrian Beltre18.48137Curtis Granderson5.80221Steve Pearce1.61
54Jason Kipnis12.10138Didi Gregorius5.25222Jorge Alfaro-24.79
55Justin Upton19.82139Jung Ho Kang4.23223Bruce Maxwell III-24.51
56Anthony Rendon15.08140C.J. Cron-1.57224Trevor Plouffe-1.44
57DJ LeMahieu17.44141Jose Reyes-4.78225Chase Headley-2.27
58David Dahl4.85142Brandon Drury-3.58226Tyler Saladino-16.97
59Evan Longoria17.01143Josh Bell4.71227Kennys Vargas-3.90
60Khris Davis17.32144Jason Heyward4.69228Jhonny Peralta-4.21
61Matt Kemp14.67145Yangervis Solarte0.50229Aaron Altherr-15.72
62Jose Bautista13.87146David Peralta6.60230Nick Hundley-26.53
63Eric Hosmer18.34147Ketel Marte-15.06231Seth Smith1.25
64Adam Jones19.56148Jorge Soler-2.06232Tony Wolters-17.77
65Eduardo Nunez2.71149Leonys Martin-3.71233Gerardo Parra-10.25
66Jose Ramirez12.87150Yulieski Gurriel0.71234Yunel Escobar0.42
67Carlos Santana19.02151Corey Dickerson5.03235Andrew Susac-18.63
68Justin Turner13.45152Matt Holliday8.51236Lonnie Chisenhall-6.05
69Miguel Sano11.59153Asdrubal Cabrera0.23237Cheslor Cuthbert-18.90
70Andrew Benintendi8.45154Jarrod Dyson-1.05238Avisail Garcia-1.41
71Addison Russell4.14155Domingo Santana6.60239J.J. Hardy-8.50
72Javier Baez3.31156Josh Harrison1.19240Colby Rasmus-6.21
73Stephen Piscotty11.84157Orlando Arcia-1.85241Angel Pagan-9.57
74Lorenzo Cain10.12158Eugenio Suarez3.57242Raimel Tapia-30.22
75Adam Eaton15.12159Travis Jankowski2.43243Blake Swihart-25.14
76Maikel Franco16.70160Ryan Schimpf-1.90244Miguel Montero-22.27
77Jose Peraza3.93161Brett Gardner5.06245Marwin Gonzalez-14.96
78Aledmys Diaz11.61162Cesar Hernandez4.36246David Freese-8.22
79Ian Desmond18.16163Brandon Phillips-6.30247Jose Iglesias-1.85
80Jackie Bradley Jr.6.66164Cameron Maybin-4.56248Delino DeShields-18.61
81Troy Tulowitzki5.10165Josh Reddick6.55249David Wright-18.06
82Odubel Herrera12.05166Justin Bour4.26250Scooter Gennett-16.85
83Dustin Pedroia13.02167Kevin Pillar4.66
84Albert Pujols15.93168Michael Conforto-9.01

Not surprisingly, pulling out the catchers doesn't affect the order of the other hitters much, but it's interesting that Clayton Kershaw only comes out to 86 cents more than Mike Trout on this pass with closers and catchers missing, even though the pitching split is 66/34 rather than 70/30. The catcher removal helps Trout somewhat because it makes the baseline higher, and the higher the replacement level, the bigger share of the budget goes to the difference makers at the top. Moreover, because closers pull twice as much out of the pitching budget as catchers do hitting, that also tilts money away from Kershaw and toward Trout. While Kershaw is still slightly higher, I won't say it's a no brainer to take him over Trout with the number one pick, something I had been arguing earlier.

Here's the full hitting list with catchers integrated back in, sorted by dollar value:

RkPlayer$RkPlayer$RkPlayer$RkPlayer$
1Mike Trout42.4671Justin Turner13.45141Jacoby Ellsbury4.71211Sandy Leon-2.12
2Mookie Betts38.7372Mike Moustakas13.35142Jason Heyward4.69212Pablo Sandoval-2.12
3Manny Machado35.2073Alex Bregman13.32143Kevin Pillar4.66213Chase Headley-2.27
4Jose Altuve33.5974Tommy Joseph13.18144Denard Span4.47214Kolten Wong-2.31
5Miguel Cabrera33.5975Kole Calhoun13.09145Cesar Hernandez4.36215Tom Murphy-2.62
6Nolan Arenado33.5476Dustin Pedroia13.02146Justin Bour4.26216Aaron Judge-2.71
7Bryce Harper31.6877Jose Ramirez12.87147Jung Ho Kang4.23217Chris Carter-2.73
8Trea Turner31.6578Jonathan Lucroy12.75148Dansby Swanson4.15218Hyun Soo Kim-2.83
9Anthony Rizzo30.0179Billy Hamilton12.10149Addison Russell4.14219Chris Herrmann-3.04
10Kris Bryant29.8680Jason Kipnis12.10150Wilson Ramos4.12220Mitch Moreland-3.44
11Paul Goldschmidt28.8081Odubel Herrera12.05151Brandon Moss4.09221Brandon Drury-3.58
12Josh Donaldson27.6482Melky Cabrera11.97152Matt Wieters4.07222Leonys Martin-3.71
13Charlie Blackmon26.5383Stephen Piscotty11.84153Welington Castillo4.05223Tyler Naquin-3.79
14Carlos Gonzalez24.1484Aledmys Diaz11.61154Joe Mauer3.93224Kennys Vargas-3.90
15Carlos Correa24.0785Miguel Sano11.59155Jose Peraza3.93225Jhonny Peralta-4.21
16Rougned Odor23.7486Salvador Perez11.26156Austin Hedges3.73226Cameron Maybin-4.56
17Nelson Cruz23.1787Kevin Kiermaier11.02157Devon Travis3.68227Jose Reyes-4.78
18Robinson Cano22.9488Marcell Ozuna10.77158Eugenio Suarez3.57228Jurickson Profar-5.27
19Joey Votto22.2889Tim Anderson10.40159Hunter Renfroe3.46229Zack Cozart-5.49
20Freddie Freeman22.0190Lorenzo Cain10.12160Byron Buxton3.40230Travis Shaw-5.54
21Corey Seager21.9791Jonathan Schoop10.00161Javier Baez3.31231Hernan Perez-5.62
22Giancarlo Stanton21.7992Brad Miller9.87162Mike Zunino3.28232Danny Valencia-5.84
23Jose Abreu21.7593Yasiel Puig9.40163Hunter Pence3.11233Lonnie Chisenhall-6.05
24Xander Bogaerts21.7094Carlos Gomez9.37164Keon Broxton3.09234Colby Rasmus-6.21
25Jonathan Villar21.4895Evan Gattis9.37165Nick Markakis2.94235Brandon Phillips-6.30
26Francisco Lindor20.9796Stephen Vogt9.27166Eduardo Nunez2.71236Eddie Rosario-6.74
27Eric Thames20.9697Adrian Gonzalez9.00167Francisco Cervelli2.45237Adonis Garcia-6.80
28George Springer20.8498Yadier Molina8.91168Travis Jankowski2.43238Andrew Toles-6.98
29Starling Marte20.8499Shin-Soo Choo8.89169Yan Gomes2.25239Charlie Tilson-7.14
30Andrew McCutchen20.62100Yasmani Grandal8.80170Michael Brantley1.88240Danny Espinosa-8.02
31Justin Upton19.82101Willson Contreras8.77171Alcides Escobar1.80241David Freese-8.22
32Christian Yelich19.82102Jake Lamb8.54172Travis d'Arnaud1.67242Wilmer Flores-8.47
33Adam Jones19.56103Matt Holliday8.51173Steve Pearce1.61243J.J. Hardy-8.50
34Daniel Murphy19.23104Nomar Mazara8.45174Seth Smith1.25244Michael Conforto-9.01
35Carlos Santana19.02105Andrew Benintendi8.45175Josh Harrison1.19245Alex Dickerson-9.18
36Ryan Braun18.63106Joc Pederson8.36176Jason Castro1.18246Angel Pagan-9.57
37Adrian Beltre18.48107Marcus Semien8.27177Brandon Crawford1.13247Gerardo Parra-10.25
38J.D. Martinez18.40108Ryon Healy8.26178Cameron Rupp0.97248Chris Owings-10.94
39Eric Hosmer18.34109Rajai Davis8.26179Matt Duffy0.97249Dan Vogelbach-10.95
40Gary Sanchez18.30110Brandon Belt8.15180Alex Gordon0.84250Melvin Upton Jr.-13.07
41Brian Dozier18.30111J.T. Realmuto8.04181Yulieski Gurriel0.71251Yoan Moncada-14.66
42Ian Desmond18.16112Carlos Beltran7.92182Jedd Gyorko0.66252Marwin Gonzalez-14.96
43Chris Davis17.74113Ender Inciarte7.67183Joe Panik0.60253Ketel Marte-15.06
44Edwin Encarnacion17.54114Gregory Bird7.47184Jay Bruce0.50254Raul Mondesi-15.48
45DJ LeMahieu17.44115Logan Forsythe7.29185Yangervis Solarte0.50255Aaron Altherr-15.72
46Mark Trumbo17.42116Max Kepler6.94186Manuel Margot0.46256Mallex Smith-15.76
47Yoenis Cespedes17.39117Adam Duvall6.87187Yunel Escobar0.42257Freddy Galvis-15.80
48Khris Davis17.32118Mike Napoli6.83188James McCann0.41258Scooter Gennett-16.85
49Evan Longoria17.01119Jackie Bradley Jr.6.66189Asdrubal Cabrera0.23259Tyler Saladino-16.97
50Wil Myers16.72120David Peralta6.60190Lucas Duda0.10260Tony Wolters-17.77
51Maikel Franco16.70121Domingo Santana6.60191Jayson Werth-0.34261David Wright-18.06
52Buster Posey16.66122Josh Reddick6.55192Tyler Flowers-0.48262Delino DeShields-18.61
53Hanley Ramirez16.52123Brian McCann6.40193Scott Schebler-0.52263Andrew Susac-18.63
54A.J. Pollock16.51124Elvis Andrus6.29194Howie Kendrick-0.62264Cheslor Cuthbert-18.90
55Kyle Seager16.40125Dexter Fowler6.15195Ryan Zimmerman-0.76265Joey Gallo-19.69
56Gregory Polanco16.34126Russell Martin6.09196Jarrod Dyson-1.05266Tucker Barnhart-21.17
57Kyle Schwarber16.07127Randal Grichuk5.92197Jorge Polanco-1.17267Ben Revere-21.55
58Todd Frazier16.02128Curtis Granderson5.80198Devin Mesoraco-1.29268Miguel Montero-22.27
59Albert Pujols15.93129Ben Zobrist5.48199Avisail Garcia-1.41269A.J. Reed-24.47
60Trevor Story15.20130Neil Walker5.28200Trevor Plouffe-1.44270Bruce Maxwell III-24.51
61Adam Eaton15.12131Didi Gregorius5.25201Mitch Haniger-1.53271Roman Quinn-24.70
62Anthony Rendon15.08132Nick Castellanos5.21202C.J. Cron-1.57272Jorge Alfaro-24.79
63Jean Segura14.94133Troy Tulowitzki5.10203Michael Saunders-1.73273Blake Swihart-25.14
64Matt Kemp14.67134Brett Gardner5.06204Steven Souza Jr.-1.73274Jefry Marte-26.26
65Victor Martinez14.28135Corey Dickerson5.03205Orlando Arcia-1.85275Nick Hundley-26.53
66Dee Gordon14.25136Martin Prado5.01206Jose Iglesias-1.85276Raimel Tapia-30.22
67Ian Kinsler14.19137Starlin Castro4.94207Jett Bandy-1.87277Brett Lawrie-32.21
68Jose Bautista13.87138David Dahl4.85208Ryan Schimpf-1.90278Sean Rodriguez-32.21
69Matt Carpenter13.62139Yasmany Tomas4.73209Andrelton Simmons-1.91279Derek Norris-32.21
70Kendrys Morales13.55140Josh Bell4.71210Jorge Soler-2.06