With NFL season finished and the NBA on All-Star break, the only logical thing to do is start thinking about fantasy football for 2016, even though many of these thoughts will be rendered useless by injuries and/or offseason acquisitions.
Before we get down to the too-early for a way-too-early top 10, I'm going to make a very biased recommendation that you follow my new twitter account (@RotowireNFL_JD), which has been set up specifically for Rotowire's NFL content, in addition to my own musings on the NFL. We're in a bit of a down period right now, but with free agency and the draft right around the corner, there's no better place to stay up to date on both the fantasy and real-life implications of various offseason news and rumors. Unlike my personal twitter account (@imjerry0505), there won't be any obnoxious rambling about NBA DFS, politics, food or music -- the new account is strictly for NFL stuff.
Anyway, here are my top 10 players for PPR leagues in 2016, as of mid-February:
1. Antonio Brown
In my mind, there are only two real questions regarding Brown:
1. How much should you make fun of your friend if he selects someone besides A.B. with the first pick in a PPR league?
2. How much should you be willing to pony up for A.B. if you play DFS?
The answer to both questions is 'a lot', so let's get on with the rest of this list.
2. Julio Jones
Jones and Brown will probably put up similar numbers on a per-game basis, but the former has a somewhat worrisome history of lower-body injuries, whereas the latter does a remarkable job of staying healthy when he's not facing assassination attempts from lunatic linebackers. Granted, the AFC North does seem to be a hotbed for cheapshots, with the Steelers, Bengals and Ravens typically unable to retain any shred of humanity when facing each other.
In any case, Jones just put up 136-1,871-8 on 204 targets, following a 104-1,593-6 line on 164 targets (15 games) the previous year. He also has at least four receptions in every game since 2012, despite playing with a balky leg (or two) in quite a few of those contests.
3. Odell Beckham Jr.
I have to be honest. The top three of these rankings required approximately zero thought. And really, there's very little chance of any change between now and September, barring a major injury to either Brown, Jones or Beckham. Maybe I should've just done 4-13 instead of 1-10, as I can't imagine there will be much argument about the top three spots in PPR leagues, though you could certainly make a case for flipping Jones and Beckham. Personally, I'm pretty indifferent, so I'll opt for the guy who tends to get more targets, even if the other guy is younger and much more fun.
Speaking of which, OBJ won't turn 24 until October and has already posted receiving lines of 91-1,305-12 (in just 12 games) and 96-1,450-13 (15 games). Next time I'm about to complain about cold weather, I'll just shut up instead and appreciate the fact that we get to watch Beckham and Brown in peak form at the same time. That Jones guy also isn't bad, and DeAndre Hopkins and Dez Bryant are decent, I guess.
4. Le'Veon Bell
Despite finishing both 2014 and 2015 with serious right knee injuries, Bell is easily the top running back for 2016, as he has everything else working in his favor. Elite running ability? Check. Elite receiving skills? Check. Assured three-down workload? Check. A strong offensive line? Check. A skill-position supporting cast that provides plenty of scoring opportunities? Check-plus.
As much as I hate to say it, the Steelers are going to run circles around my beloved Ravens (and the rest of the league) next season. Even if Big Ben continues to turn in those occasional mysterious road clunkers, the 2016 Pittsburgh offense has the potential to break records. Of course, this selection is dependent on Bell making a smooth recovery from his torn PCL and MCL.
5. Dez Bryant
This is where things start to get a bit shaky, with Bryant, DeAndre Hopkins, Rob Gronkowski and perhaps a few other players all warranting consideration. Bryant may seem like a risky pick at first glance, but both he and Tony Romo will have plenty of time to recover from their respective injuries. Although few people would pick Bryant this high in February, I'm guessing he'll be a consensus top-eight PPR guy by July or August. If he plays 14+ games, double-digit touchdowns are all but assured, and I'd also bet that he tops his career-high mark of 160 targets (2013).
6. DeAndre Hopkins
If Hopkins swapped teams with A.B. or Beckham, which of the three would be held in highest regard? I'm not sure about the answer to this question, but I do know that I'll enjoy watching Hopkins go through another year of making absurd catches to haul in sub-par passes. Maybe, if we're lucky, the Texans will find an upgrade on Brian Hoyer. If not, I'll still be fine with taking Hopkins as high as fifth or sixth overall. This isn't really relevant, but I'm pretty sure A.J. Green would sit down on the field and start visibly crying if he had to play with Hoyer as his quarterback.
7. Rob Gronkowski
The oft-wrecked human wrecking ball makes for a risky pick at No. 7, but with the running back group a mess and the wideouts closely bunched after Hopkins, it makes sense to go with a guy who has his own tier at tight end. Also, it's incredibly fun to yell 'Gronk' at your television repeatedly -- doubly so if you have family members/roommates who couldn't care less about the game. Unlike many acts of idiocy, this doesn't even require alcohol.
8. Sammy Watkins
Am I crazy? Do I not know how to spell 'Allen Robinson' or 'Adrian Peterson'? Did I let my dog handle Nos. 8-10 because I got bored?
I'm not actually going to answer any of those questions, but I will point out that Watkins only posted a 2015 receiving line of 60-1,047-9. In 13 games. On 95 targets. That's 11 yards per target...on 95 targets...for a team that had a breakout quarterback and still often found itself playing from behind because the defense fell off a cliff from 2014 (cough, Rex).
I'm not sure why, but I somehow just can't believe that the Bills will be so stupid again. Tyrod Taylor is good. Sammy Watkins is awesome. Rex, please take a look at your actual roster and stop obsessing over some outdated notion of what a football team should be. Even with a great running game, it just doesn't make sense to go so run-heavy in this era, unless your passing game is incompetent. In this case, it clearly isn't.
9. Brandon Marshall
With the Jets likely to retain the core of their 2015 offense, Marshall will have a nice chance to build on his NFL record of six 100-catch seasons. He'll probably be closer to 8-10 touchdowns than 14, but there's little reason to think that his total of 174 targets (fifth most in the NFL) was a fluke. Throughout his career, Marshall has consistently put up huge numbers on massive target volume whenever he's played in a competent offense.
10. Mike Evans
Allen Robinson would be just as reasonable of a selection, but I'm giving a slight edge to Evans because he doesn't have quite as much competition for targets. Allen Hurns is superior to Vincent Jackson at this point in their respective careers, and while Austin Seferian-Jenkins might soon be better than Julius Thomas, it's still nearly impossible to know what ASJ will bring to the table. Evans and Robinson aren't actually all that similar as players, but their various strengths and weaknesses add up to approximately the same thing. I also have more faith in Jameis Winston than Blake Bortles, whose 58.6 completion percentage doesn't bode well for his chances of coming anywhere close to 35 touchdowns again. Winston's rate stats were better or nearly identical to Bortles' in every category besides touchdowns/attempt.