RotoWire.com, as part of our college basketball betting insight, used the AI tool Gemini to predict the March Madness bracket for the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.
RotoWire.com broke the tournament out by round, along with the percentage of times that the top 20 most successful teams won throughout the 100 simulated results. According to our AI projections, Duke is projected to win the tournament with a 23% win rate across 100 simulations, followed by Michigan at 20% and Arizona at 12%.
Here is the full projected bracket, updated with teams that have clinched automatic bids through March 10 and at-large projections elsewhere:
AI Picks 
East
Midwest
Who Could Make Noise in March Madness?
These projections are exclusive to RotoWire.com, where we bring you sportsbook promo codes that you can use when you sign up with an operator. We pick up with the first round, when the field is down to 64 teams; First Four games aren't reflected here.
Given what we've seen from the top end of the nation's leading men's basketball teams, it's likely of little surprise to learn that upper echelon squads such as Duke (23%), Michigan (20%) and Arizona (12%) have the highest percentages when it comes to winning it all in the 100 simulations conducted for this story.
Outside of those three, other top contenders based on 100 projected brackets were defending national champion Florida (9%), Houston (6%), Illinois and UConn (4% each). More Big 12 and Big Ten teams were in the mix too, with Purdue and Iowa State at 3% each and Michigan State leading a pack of five teams at 2% each.
Customers using the BetMGM Sportsbook bonus code can get +320 odds on Duke to claim the national title, followed by Michigan at +325, Arizona at +475 and Florida at +675.
If Duke cuts down the nets inside Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on April 6, it would be the program's first national title since 2015.
As of March 11, 
Michigan was No. 2 in NET rankings and at KenPom.com, behind the Blue Devils in both cases. Our projections from a few weeks ago had the Wolverines winning the Men's NCAA Basketball Tournament.
2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket: First Round
When it comes to the opening round of the Big Dance, our projections show an incredibly chalk-heavy start to the tournament. After we averaged out all of the bracket simulations, just two lower seeds are projected to advance: No. 9 seed Clemson knocking out eighth seed Utah State and 13th seed Utah Valley upsetting No. 4 seed Texas Tech.
College basketball futures betting customers know that in real life, the first round always has far more upsets than that, so consider that in viewing this bracket.
All No. 1 seeds advanced in routs and the story was much the same with the second-seeded teams, which won by a combined average margin of 21.25 points.
2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket: Second Round
Looking at the second round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, the story stayed much the same for the No. 1 and 2 seeds, with top seeds Duke, Michigan, Florida and Arizona winning their contests by a combined margin of 10.25 points, while No. 2 seeded teams went 4-0 as well, winning by an average margin of six points.
Interestingly, all four of the fifth seeds that reached the second round won their games at this stage. North Carolina, Vanderbilt and St. John's knocked off fourth seeded teams, while Arkansas outlasted Utah Valley, 75-73.
All four of the third seeds managed to outlast sixth seeded teams as well, with Iowa State (74-70 over Wisconsin), Purdue (77-72 against Louisville), Nebraska (76-73 over Tennessee) and Gonzaga (75-72) squeaking into the Sweet 16.
2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket: Third Round
As for the opening games of the second weekend, the theme of chalk winning out continued apace. The top eight teams in the bracket fill out our projected Elite Eight, by an average margin of 7.5 points.
The second seeds all had their games to the wire, though: Houston (66-64 over Nebraska) and Michigan State (72-70 over Gonzaga) had the slimmest margins; UConn (71-68 over Purdue) and Illinois (77-74 over Iowa State) also survive by slim margins.
Sports betting apps customers who like to bet the underdog to cover the spread would likely favor these outcomes.
2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket: Region Finals
In all four region finals, we have No. 1 vs. No. 2 seeds meeting for a spot in the Final Four.
Based on our projections, we will see three top seeded teams in the Final Four. Duke (82-78 over Illinois), Michigan (70-68 over UConn) and Arizona (84-82 over Michigan State) make it to Indianapolis, while second seeded Houston is expected to knock off Florida, 68-66.
If 
Houston makes the Final Four, it'd mark the third time that head coach Kelvin Sampson leads the Cougars into the National Semifinal round (also 2021 and 2025).
Of the four teams projected to reach the semis in 2026, Arizona has the longest Final Four drought, dating to 2001, when the Wildcats lost to Duke in the title game.
Of the other two teams expected to reach this year's Final Four, the Blue Devils of Duke reached it last year, while Michigan's last trip was in 2018, showcasing recency bias.
2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket: National Semifinals
In the National Semifinal, we expect Michigan and Duke to emerge from razor-thin ballgames against Arizona and Houston. The Blue Devils survive the Cougars, 75-72, while the Wolverines are expected to handle the Wildcats, 78-76.
A win over Arizona would put Michigan in the title game for the first time since 2018 (and third time since 2010, joining the 2013 team). The Blue Devils last played in final in 2015, when they beat Wisconsin, 68-63.
2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket: National Championship Game
If our AI projections are true, then the 2026 National Championship game should be one to remember. Our simulations peg 
Duke to win the title in a 74-72 classic, giving head coach Jon Scheyer his first title in his fourth season in Durham.
This is a change from our projections in late February, when we had Michigan winning the crown.
Such an outcome would fall in line with 2026 NCAA Championship betting odds, with bet365 Sportsbook giving Duke the best odds of any NCAA men's basketball team, at +325, followed by Michigan (+340) and Arizona (+475). Of the four teams projected to make the Final Four, the Houston Cougars have the longest odds to make it on bet365, sitting fourth at +1100 behind Florida, which is listed at +700.
We'll have to wait until Selection Sunday to see in earnest how the Big Dance might unfold. But we already have a model to view, with Gemini AI giving us a hand by projecting the NCAA Tournament field of 68 and the eventual champ next month in Indy.
