As a college football fan, it doesn't get much better than this weekend. There are six ranked matchups scattered across the different windows on Saturday. I hope you've cleared your schedules or banked enough brownie points with your significant other to park it on the couch and enjoy the feast we're getting this weekend.
As always, we'll start with a little audit of last week's main slate before diving into our strategy for this week.
Week 3 Main Slate Recap
Best Point-Per-Dollar Plays from Week 3
| Rank | Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Actual FPTS | Pts/$1,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kendrick Raphael | RB | SMU | $4,800 | 43.8 | 9.12 |
| 2 | Duce Robinson | WR | Florida State | $3,800 | 28.5 | 7.5 |
| 3 | Matthew Fuller | RB | South Carolina | $4,900 | 34.8 | 7.1 |
| 4 | Tate Nagy | WR | Kansas | $3,100 | 21.1 | 6.81 |
| 5 | Keyjuan Brown | RB | Louisville | $5,200 | 31.3 | 6.02 |
| 6 | Ashton Daniels | QB | Florida State | $6,400 | 37.78 | 5.9 |
| 7 | Braden Pegan | WR | Utah | $6,000 | 35.2 | 5.87 |
| 8 | Koby Howard | WR | Penn State | $5,600 | 31.5 | 5.62 |
| 9 | CJ Baxter | RB | Kentucky | $4,400 | 24.5 | 5.57 |
| 10 | Craig Dandridge | WR | Georgia | $3,100 | 17 | 5.48 |
Raphael and Fuller got callouts in last week's article, though I wish I had more of them in my portfolio. It was great to see Duce Robinson get back on track as well, and I felt foolish for not highlighting him when his salary dipped to $3,800 even in a bad matchup.
Salary Risers
| Player | Pos | Team | Wk3 Salary | Wk4 Salary | Delta $ | Delta % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln Kienholz | QB | Louisville | $7,400 | $9,000 | $1,600 | 0.216 |
| Chauncey Bowens | RB | Georgia | $4,900 | $6,100 | $1,200 | 0.245 |
| Davin Wydner | QB | Louisville | $6,900 | $8,000 | $1,100 | 0.159 |
| Keyjuan Brown | RB | Louisville | $5,200 | $6,200 | $1,000 | 0.192 |
| Lawayne McCoy | WR | Georgia | $4,600 | $5,600 | $1,000 | 0.217 |
| Daniel Bray | RB | Utah | $4,300 | $5,300 | $1,000 | 0.233 |
| Craig Dandridge | WR | Georgia | $3,100 | $4,100 | $1,000 | 0.323 |
| Ja'Kobi Jackson | RB | Ohio State | $5,400 | $6,200 | $800 | 0.148 |
| Braden Pegan | WR | Utah | $6,000 | $6,700 | $700 | 0.117 |
| Marquise Davis | RB | Louisville | $5,000 | $5,700 | $700 | 0.14 |
The DraftKings crew has caught onto Lincoln Kienholz, now pricing him as the No.2 quarterback on the slate behind only Julian Sayin. He could still pay it off, but the bar to clear it has gotten much higher.
Chauncy Bowens had a big game last weekend, albeit against Arkansas. People will be scared off by the matchup against Oklahoma, but if Nate Frazier is unable to play, Bowens gets a little more interesting here.
Week 4 Slate Overview
Nearly half the slate has both a high total and a competitive spread.
- Auburn (-9.5) vs Vanderbilt (55.5)
- Baylor (-9.5) vs Colorado (55.5)
- Florida (-3.5) vs Mississippi (59.5)
- Maryland (+1.5) vs UCLA (56.5)
- Tennessee (+4) vs Texas (55.5)
A couple of these games have real CFP ramifications. Another one decidedly does not. Of course, I'm talking about...
Baylor vs Colorado
What really drives my interest here is the expected lack of defense. These are two of the worst defenses not only on the slate but in the entire Power 4. Baylor's raw numbers may not look it because it has only played one P4 team and two cupcakes, but this is not a good defense.
The key here will be whether the offenses can take advantage. Neither offense is particularly efficient, but there is some talent and some structural details that make it possible for the over to hit.
For one, Baylor runs a ton of plays. They have the most snaps of any team with three games played this year (251). In Baylor's only P4 game, it ran a dizzying 99 plays. It wasn't overly efficient in that Auburn game (4.4 YPP) but there were plenty of opportunities.
I gravitate to Baylor's passing game. Whether it's DJ Lagway (ankle) or Nate Bennett at quarterback, I like the way this sets up for Gavin Freeman ($5,500) and Louis Brown IV ($5,000). Freeman sports a 34% target share that ranks fourth on this slate, behind only Collin Dixon, JJ Buchanan, and Andrew Marsh. You'd like to see a little more explosiveness than 7.6 YPT but nearly 10 catches per game is what we like to see in PPR scoring.
Brown has been more explosive with 10.1 YPT and two touchdowns, though. I'm not sure if I'll stack either with the starting quarterback, but this offense gives us two viable receivers at $5,500 or less. That's useful.
If Colorado is going to keep this one competitive and match scores with Baylor, there are a couple ways we can capitalize. Joseph Williams ($5,300) and Deandre Moore ($5,000) are consolidating nearly 50% of the Buffs' targets. We like it when things are that simple. Danny Scudero is out, so that trend should hold here.
Really, you can load up on pass-catchers in this one and have flexibility to pay up elsewhere.
Louisville (-13.5) vs Wake Forest (57.5)
I'm a little surprised the spread is this wide. I have the proper amount of respect for Louisville, but Wake Forest is frisky. The Deacs won a wild game against Purdue in West Lafayette in Week 2 and hung with Miami last week.
Louisville is coming off a massive win of their own against SMU. While this isn't a letdown spot per se, I really wouldn't be shocked if the Cards weren't as sharp this week and the Deacs hung around.
Wake Forest's defense is bad enough to where Louisville should score with ease here. That puts the Deacs passing game in play. Gio Lopez is only ($6,800) so you can play him opposite Kienholz in a game stack. Carlos Hernandez ($6,000) is a nice value too and the biggest piece of the WF passing game, drawing 28.6% of the targets with a 10.7 YPT.
Louisville has obviously played a tough schedule so far, but it's notable that they're allowing the third most passing yards per game on this slate. They also give up a lot on the ground (161.3) but I'm not sure Wake has the personnel to make them pay for it like SMU did.
On the Louisville side of things, seeing the roster % splits among the running backs will be really interesting. Isaac Brown ($6,900) is still the guy, I think. KeyJuan Brown ($6,200 has been more productive, though, averaging an absurd 12.8 YPC over 18 attempts. He's listed as probable, so keep an eye on his status. He should be able to push for 8-10 carries against a vulnerable defense. I'd guess the roster% swings towards Keyjuan given last week's performance and the salary disparity between him and Isaac. Maybe it's a good buy low spot for Isaac Brown.
All told, this game needs to be on your radar for this slate.
UCF (+3) vs TCU (48.5)
This game is pretty easy to scroll past with a low total and no Alonza Barnett for UCF. I think this might be a smash spot for TCU though. Jaden Craig ($7,000) has started to click after a rocky debut, throwing seven touchdowns in his last two games, albeit against weaker competition.
Ed Small ($5,900) is tied for the fourth-most receptions of any receiver on this slate (21) and is clipping along at 12.7 yards per target. We can also keep an eye on star receiver Jordan Dwyer ($5,300). I'm usually a little skeptical on players coming back from longer-term injuries, so this is a GPP play only. Keep an eye on the injury report to make sure he's good to go, but this could be a nice leverage play if Dwyer hits the ground running.
Jeremy Payne ($6,300) is also underpriced. TCU has no problem giving him 20+ carries. Workload projection like that should carry a price tag closer to $7,000.
Big Team Totals
- Notre Dame (43.0)
- Ohio State (40.5)
- Louisville (35.5)
Quarterback
Byrum Brown ($8,500) and Jared Curtis ($6,600) Auburn vs Vanderbilt
This is one of the games that checks the box for high total and narrow spread. Both of these quarterbacks are starting to click. Brown needed a little bit of adjustment and the offense was clunky against Baylor in the opener. It looked like a much smoother operation last week against Florida when Brown threw for 271 yards and three scores while adding a team-high 18 carries for 65 yards and a touchdown. That's more in line with what we saw out of Brown at USF.
Adding on, Vanderbilt's defense is markedly worse than Florida's. And this game is at Auburn. Brown could go off here.
Curtis has looked good thus far as a freshman, throwing for 487 yards with four touchdowns and two picks -- along with two rushing scores -- in his last two outings. Going to Auburn for his first road start will be a tall task, but Auburn also hasn't won an SEC home game since November of 2024. Seriously.
The thing with Curtis is that $6,600 gives such a low bar to clear for him to pan out as a play. He's effective as a runner and improves as a passer each week. Unless the road environment really gets to him, Curtis should do enough here.
Jaden Craig, TCU ($7,000) at UCF
As I mentioned, Craig is starting to find his footing at TCU after a rocky start in Week 0 against UNC in Dublin. He's settled in with seven touchdown passes over his last two outings and now gets a favorable matchup against UCF.
Even if UCF is a step up in competition from Grambling and Arkansas State, Craig's overall progress since the opener is giving me confidence in this spot. He has a great rapport with Ed Small, which gives him a good stacking partner if you want to approach the game that way. Plus, Jordan Dwyer could be making his comeback.
If UCF can get anything going on offense without Alonza Barnett, Craig should be busy enough to do damage here.
CJ Carr, Notre Dame ($8,400) at Purdue
The monster CJ Carr game is coming at some point, right? All the indicators have looked good so far, but we haven't seen it materialize in a total smash for DFS, seeing as Rice-Notre Dame wasn't on a multi-game slate. Cooking Rice doesn't really tell us a ton, either.
This is a good spot for Carr to remind us why he was a Heisman favorite coming into the season. He'll face a Purdue defense that gives up 8.9 yards per attempt. Notre Dame could also toy around with Purdue and try to get the ground game on track, so there's a little risk that Carr's pass volume lags. I'm willing to take that risk here, though.
It might sound crazy, but Purdue might be able to score a little bit this time around. It's not going to look like the last time the Irish paid a visit to West Lafayette and won 66-7. That might be enough for Carr to get to 30 attempts.
As we noted above, Notre Dame has the highest implied total of any team on this slate at 43 points. Carr is going to have a big impact on the Irish getting there. On top of that, he's got some decent stacking options like Jordan Faison ($6,100) and Micah Gilbert ($4,100).
Others to Consider
- Lincoln Kienholz, Louisville ($9,000)
- Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss ($7,700)
- Gio Lopez, Wake Forest ($6,800)
Running Back
Wayne Knight, UCLA ($8,400) at Maryland
I've seen the spread. I've heard the cross-country travel narrative. I don't care. UCLA is a lot better than Maryland.
A big part of that is Knight and the run game. UCLA is the best rushing team in college football in terms of success rate, first in rushing touchdowns, and fourth in YPC (6.99).
Knight himself has been rocking out with eight rushing touchdowns and 8.8 yards per carry. He's also seeing his workload increase week over week, getting up to 18 last week. The Terps have actually rated reasonably well against the run and allow a 34% success rate on those plays.
Jadan Baugh, Florida ($9,100) vs Ole Miss
Baugh needs very little introduction at this point. He's probably the best running back in the sport right now. His $9,100 price tag warrants some discussion, though. It changes the entire rest of your build, sinking nearly 20% of your budget into one slot.
In this case, he will be worth it. This isn't too far off from the Nate Sheppard dilemmas from the last few weeks. We've seen the primo running backs be the best DFS plays so far this season. Fading them has not worked out well.
A home game against the 98th-ranked run defense is not a spot to get cute. Maybe you don't go 100% Baugh exposure, but it's hard not to have him as a major building block in most of your lineups.
Jeremy Payne, TCU ($6,300) at UCF
I'm not sure what I'm missing here. Payne gets nearly 20 carries per game and peels off 5.3 yards per carry. And yet he's down at $6,300 here. Maybe the lack of touchdowns (1) helps us get in at the right time.
UCF's run defense has been fine but nothing that TCU can't handle up front. Plus, there's the strong likelihood that the Knights' offense sputters without Barnett, meaning the defense will be on the field a lot. That'd be bad news for them if they're trying to stop the Payne onslaught in the second half.
I like paying up for running back on this slate, but if you need to drop down a tier, Payne is a good call.
Others to Consider
- JT Lindsey, Ole Miss ($4,800)
- Raleek Brown, Texas ($5,900)
- Aneyas Williams, Notre Dame ($6,600)
Wide Receiver
Here's this week's target cheat sheet. I filtered it to receivers on this slate with at least a 20% team target share who also average at least 8.5 yards per target. Those are fairly arbitrary thresholds, but they still tend to paint a good picture of who is A.) Getting Volume and B.) Maximizing It.
| Name | Tm | OPP | SAL | Proj. Pts | YDS/TAR | TM TAR % | TAR | REC | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Dixon | Illinois | Ohio State | 7000 | 17.78 | 11.5 | 41.6 | 32 | 25 | 367 | 7 |
| JJ Buchanan | Michigan | Iowa | 5400 | 13.19 | 11.1 | 36.4 | 24 | 15 | 266 | 2 |
| Jeremiah Smith | Ohio State | Illinois | 8900 | 31.09 | 13.3 | 32.6 | 30 | 21 | 400 | 3 |
| Isaiah Sategna III | Oklahoma | Georgia | 6200 | 12.77 | 8.5 | 29.3 | 22 | 12 | 186 | 2 |
| Carlos Hernandez | Wake Forest | Louisville | 6000 | 17.09 | 10.7 | 28.6 | 30 | 21 | 322 | 2 |
| Ed Small | TCU | UCF | 5900 | 16.97 | 12.7 | 28 | 26 | 21 | 330 | 1 |
| Junior Sherrill | Vanderbilt | Auburn | 5100 | 15.11 | 11.3 | 27 | 24 | 15 | 272 | 2 |
| Mike Matthews | Tennessee | Texas | 6800 | 12.8 | 9.5 | 27 | 20 | 10 | 189 | 2 |
| Keshaun Singleton | Auburn | Vanderbilt | 6600 | 18.57 | 8.5 | 26.2 | 27 | 17 | 230 | 1 |
| Asaad Waseem | Purdue | Notre Dame | 5800 | 11.16 | 11.9 | 26.2 | 27 | 20 | 321 | 1 |
| Semaj Morgan | UCLA | Maryland | 5000 | 9.86 | 8.8 | 24.7 | 18 | 12 | 158 | 2 |
| Brian Rowe Jr. | UCLA | Maryland | 4700 | 8.05 | 8.7 | 24.7 | 18 | 10 | 156 | 0 |
| Braden Pegan | Utah | Iowa State | 6700 | 13.88 | 10.7 | 24.2 | 22 | 15 | 235 | 3 |
| Tre Richardson | Louisville | Wake Forest | 6300 | 12.94 | 12.8 | 24.1 | 19 | 15 | 243 | 1 |
| Jordan Faison | Notre Dame | Purdue | 6100 | 14.21 | 9.1 | 23.2 | 19 | 13 | 173 | 2 |
| Deuce Alexander | Ole Miss | Florida | 7600 | 17.12 | 11.8 | 21.7 | 25 | 20 | 295 | 3 |
| Xavier Townsend | Purdue | Notre Dame | 5400 | 14.81 | 12.1 | 21.4 | 22 | 19 | 267 | 2 |
| Joseph Williams | Colorado | Baylor | 5300 | 11.11 | 12.3 | 21.3 | 19 | 11 | 234 | 3 |
| Vernell Brown III | Florida | Ole Miss | 6500 | 13.62 | 15.4 | 20 | 16 | 14 | 246 | 2 |
| Dallas Wilson | Florida | Ole Miss | 6400 | 14.03 | 14.1 | 20 | 16 | 12 | 225 | 2 |
I mentioned the likes of Gavin Freeman and Carlos Hernandez earlier, so we don't need to go into much further detail there. This is a
Collin Dixon ($7,000) and Jeremiah Smith ($8,900) Illinois at Ohio State
It'll be surprising if Illinois keeps this one respectable. At least, that's what the spread tells us. I agree with it; the Illini might be backsliding a bit this year after piling up 19 wins over the last two seasons. They are four-touchdown underdogs in this spot and have an implied total of 13 points. 13.
I can't give up on my guy Collin Dixon that easily, though. The man is getting targeted 40 percent of the time and still catching 78% of his looks at an 11.5 YPT clip. Now, Ohio State is going to be keenly aware that stopping Dixon means stopping the Illini. The Buckeyes forced Arch Manning to find options not named Cam Coleman or Ryan Wingo a couple of weeks ago, they can do it to Dixon too. But I think there's just too high of a target floor here for Dixon to ignore. Illinois needs to feed him 10+ targets to have a prayer here. Even if he's not able to maintain his crazy efficiency, I still think there's a chance Dixon scratches and claws his way into a decent ROI.
If you're worried Dixon is going to get completely locked down, Hudson Clement ($4,400) would be the pivot.
As for Smith, he's like the Baugh blurb above. You know who he is. You just need to decide whether he's worth playing at $8,900. It'll be hard to have Baugh and Smith in the same lineup -- you'll likely need to punt your superflex to make room. I lean Baugh, but there's leverage upside with Smith since more of the field will be willing to pony up for the running back, with the price points being roughly equal.
Carlos Hernandez, Wake Forest ($6,000) at Louisville
We're chasing the underdog side of a big total game as Wake Forest looks to keep it competitive with Louisville on the road. Hernandez has been a consistent producer since getting to Winston-Salem last year and is off to a great start in 2026 with 21 grabs for 322 and two scores through three games.
The game script favors Wake Forest going to the air a lot in this one, which is in its comfort zone anyway, as the Deacs have a 55% pass play rate. Hernandez commands a strong 28.6 percent share of those targets, with no other teammate drawing more than 15 percent. Hernandez is a nice combo of floor and ceiling at $6K.
Junior Sherrill, Vanderbilt ($5,100) at Auburn
If the Curtis play works out, Sherrill will be a big reason why. Sherrill projects as one of the best point-per-dollar plays on the board this week, and it's easy to see why. 27% target share. 11.3 YPT. Six catches of 25+ yards, which ranks second in FBS. In other words, Junior Sherrill is a problem.
Vandy is a reasonably big underdog of 9.5 points here, so it stands to reason that the passing game will be busy. I could see Vandy trying to give Curtis some cover in the early going, but eventually the 'Dores will have to air it out. Sherrill is the No.1 option by far and I'm not fully sold on Auburn's pass defense, even against a freshman quarterback.
If you want to get a piece of Auburn's passing attack, Keshaun Singleton ($6,600) and Chas Nimrod ($5,700) combine for 50% of the War Eagle target share. Pretty good.
Others to Consider
- Ed Small, TCU ($5,900)
- Micah Gilbert, Notre Dame ($4,100)
- Chris Durr, Maryland ($7,100)
