College Football Picks: Florida State vs. SMU Best Bets
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Week 1 of College Football extends into the Labor Day Holiday with a prime-time ACC Showdown between the Florida State Seminoles and SMU Mustangs, which kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET in Tallahassee.
The Seminoles have already begun the season, and they beat a scrappy New Mexico State team in unglamorous fashion, 34-17. The game looked like an upset in the making before Florida State finally kicked in gear, saving face, and probably Mike Norvell's job, in the process.
Meanwhile, SMU will take the field for the first time in Week 1, coming off a disappointing end to the season, falling a few plays short of making the ACC Championship and a possible playoff berth after falling to Cal, 38-35. It finished strong with a win in the Holiday Bowl, and the Mustangs are once again poised to excel. HC Rhett Lashlee is back to lead the Mustangs, and he continues to be one of the most underrated coaches in the FBS.
Florida State vs. SMU Betting Odds for Week 1
Spread: SMU -2.5 (FanDuel), Florida State +3.5 (Hard Rock )
Total: Over 52.5 (BetRivers), Under 53.5 (BetMGM)
Moneyline: SMU -150 (FanDuel), Florida State +130 (DraftKings)
Despite Florida State's Week 0 performance, there hasn't been much movement, as all three metrics have been stagnant for most of the week. There's a bit of a discrepancy with the spread across the books, especially with the underdog, where you see a one-point differential
Florida State vs. SMU Betting Picks for Week 1
Quite honestly, I am a bit surprised by the forgiving spread here. First, we need to look at the recent data we have on the Seminoles. It took about a quarter and a half before we saw signs of life from Florida State's offense, and the defense gave New Mexico State a lot of rope. Missed tackles, careless penalties, blown coverages - we saw a little bit of everything from the defensive unit, none of it good.
And, all this happened against an Aggies squad that was slated as a typical creampuff game that's common for Power 4 teams - a tune-up before things get serious. The talent is there. Ashton Daniels looked a lot better in the second half, and both Ousmane Kromah and Samuel Singleton were effective on the ground. Star wideout Duce Robinson was a non-factor, but that can't last for long. Despite the lackluster start, the offense still racked up 34 points.
Is FSU's scoring potential enough to get a win here? Chances are, SMU should be able to pick apart this defense. Kevin Jennings is one of the conference's best quarterbacks, and he's a touchdown magnet (59 over two seasons) installed behind a much-improved offensive line that will create a lot of gaps for senior RB Kendrick Raphael, who soared to 943 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. Jennings also has the benefit of excellent passing targets like Yamir Knight and Jalen Cooper.
FSU's run game was its strongest asset last week, but SMU's run defense ranked 19th nationally last season, averaging 3.19 yards per carry and 111.9 yards per game. Florida State's fortunes don't look too bright if they have to rely on Ashton Daniels and an offense that might be limited to a one-dimensional approach. If the Seminoles stay on this route, Mike Norvell's tenure is over, and the foundation starts to crumble Monday night.
Florida State vs SMU Expert Pick: SMU -2.5 (FanDuel)
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Florida State vs. SMU Predictions for Week 1
I'm willing to tease the -2.5 spread substantially, if it's available. While I don't see the game as a pure blowout, I do envision a scenario where SMU makes enough mistakes to keep things somewhat interesting, but not so much that the eventual outcome is ever in doubt.
While Jennings' numbers are impressive, he's been spotty and inconsistent at times, so he'll need to play a clean game to lock in the W. That'll be an easier job against FSU's defense. For the Seminoles' offense to succeed, they'll need to rectify the lack of connection between Daniels and Robinson. Daniels was fortunate to have Singleton come out of the backfield and grab a few balls, but a dink here and there won't solve what ails this offense. They need to get vertical and challenge SMU's secondary. I don't see that happening.
Prediction: SMU 34, Florida State 14
Florida State vs SMU Player Props for Monday, September 7
Kevin Jennings Over 19.5 Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Jennings should produce several end-zone results through the air and on the ground, and he'll pad this total with dual-threat yardage.
Ashton Daniels Under 237.5 Passing Yards (PrizePicks)
Daniels only managed 202 passing yards against New Mexico State, and I have a hard time seeing him get close to this total. The Seminoles may need to pass more if they can't run the ball, but they may not be successful there either.
