College Football Picks: Louisville vs Ole Miss Best Bets
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Two teams with reasonably high expectations collide at Nissan Stadium in Nashville as Week 1 inches towards its close. With a favorable conference schedule, Louisville has legit ACC title hopes, and thus playoff potential as a result. The Rebels are off a CFP semi-final appearance. While their offseason has had some drama and resetting their defense and receiving corps, they return two of the surest things in the nation in Heisman hopefuls QB Trinidad Chambliss and RB Kewan Lacy.
Louisville vs Ole Miss Betting Odds for Week 1
Spread: Ole Miss -6.5 (-114, Caesars); Louisville +7 (-115, BetMGM)
Total: Over 54.5 (-115, DraftKings); Under 55.5 (-108, BetMGM)
Moneyline: Ole Miss (-250, FanDuel); Louisville (+220, DraftKings)
Not a ton to discuss here; you can odds shop and it's obviously important to find the bets that are favorable as we sit at under a touchdown or over depending on book and similarly with the total. But there's been next to no movement in these numbers all week. Perhaps folks have been focused on the Thursday, Friday and Saturday matchups and we see some changes once this game becomes a focal point, but for now, this is a rare steady spot, suggesting even money on all sides of the equation.
Louisville vs Ole Miss Betting Picks for Week 1
There are too many unknowns for me to feel great about the result. Yes, Chambliss and Lacy are elite; but Ole Miss has major questions with a rebuilt defense, and Chambliss has a new receiving group.
For Louisville, there's talent at QB with Lincoln Kienholz, and I believe HC Jeff Brohm is one of the best game planners in the nation, but Kienholz has all of 32 pass attempts in his career. I can sell you on either side covering as a result, but I won't.
Hopefully this game plays out similarly to some of the other marquee matchups of Week 1. And that theme has been close to the vest, feel each other out and don't lose first rather than going for the gusto. Lacy ran for over 1,500 yards last year, and Louisville's Isaac Brown was just shy of 900 in nine games. I'm looking for a run-heavy approach from both sides, helping to keep the clock churning.
Is there a chance this turns into a back and forth shootout? Yes. Is there overtime potential? Maybe. But we can't bet an Over when considering that. Ole Miss seems to have a major advantage at kicker with Lucas Carneiro hitting 31-of-35 last season, while Louisville brings in Garth White from Rhode Island.
The Rebels will take their points when they can, Louisville perhaps not as confidently, keeping this relatively low scoring.
Louisville vs Ole Miss Expert Pick: Under 55.5 points (-108) at BetMGM
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Louisville vs Ole Miss Predictions for Week 1
New Ole Miss OC John David Baker was at East Carolina last season, where he ran the ball 559 times, while throwing it 440. Sure, he's got a better quarterback at his disposal, but if those tendencies hold, this game sets up for Lacy to shine more than Chambliss.
On the other side, despite my affinity for Brohm, we simply need to see it from Kienholz and whoever is catching passes for the Cardinals, as they have no proven commodities. Brown and Lacy shine, Chambliss wins it.
Prediction: Ole Miss 30, Louisville 20
Louisville vs Ole Miss Player Props for Sunday, September 6
Isaac Brown, Louisville RB, Over 71.5 rushing yards
If my game script is correct, this should be a winner. Simply, it's the lesser number of the two starting backs. At 5-foot-9, 190 pounds, Brown isn't likely to get 20 carries, but the Cardinals leaned on him heavily down the stretch last year until his body failed him. They've got a far less proven quarterback this season. In two seasons, he's averaged 8.8 and 7.1 yards per carry. As such, he can eclipse this mark on 10-12 carries.
Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss QB, Under 271.5 passing yards
Again, game script. We're taking a narrative and running with it, quite literally. A run-heavy approach leads to Chambliss not going for massive numbers with his arms. As does unproven receivers. We know he's capable, he topped 300 yards eight times last season. Feel free to hedge my under on total points by going over here. I just don't see Louisville forcing Ole Miss to open it up vertically.
