College Football Picks: NC State at Virginia Best Bets
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It's Week 0, and we already have a conference game on the slate. Actually, the NC State Wolfpack and Virginia Cavaliers were supposed to play this game in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, but those plans fell through, and this summer the game was rescheduled for Scott Stadium in Charlottesville.
Virginia will head into the game with revenge on its mind after falling 35-31 at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, N.C. last September. We saw the Wolfpack win the entertaining game, as QB CJ Bailey had a coming-out party with two rushing touchdowns and 200 passing yards with a TD.
The good news for the Cavaliers is that the team was able to bounce back, rattling off seven straight victories en route to an appearance in the ACC Championship Game against Duke. I know, it is still hard to believe that Virginia-Duke was the league title game!
NC State has won four straight meetings in this series, and the Wolfpack have won three straight trips to Charlottesville, too. The last time Virginia won on its home field against NC State was a 14-7 victory back on Oct. 28, 2006, so it has been a minute.
NC State at Virginia Betting Odds for Week 0
Spread: Virginia -4 (-108, DraftKings), NC State +4.5 (-115, FanDuel)
Total: Over 51.5 (-102, DraftKings), Under 51.5 (-110, Fanatics)
Moneyline: Virginia -177 (BetRivers), NC State +165 (BetMGM)
The books are a good mix with Virginia as a favorite of -4 to -4.5. Shop around a little bit, as you can get an extra half-point rather than having to buy it. As far as the total is concerned, that's remained relatively stable throughout, although there is a slight variance as far as the juice is concerned.
NC State at Virginia Betting Picks for Week 0
NC State hits the road, and it has a little bit of stability on its side. Last season, quarterback CJ Bailey showed tremendous improvement. The Miami, Fla. native threw for 2,413 yards, 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 2024, completing 64.9 percent of his passes. In 2025, he bumped those numbers up to 68.8 percent of his pass attempts completed, while going for 3,105 passing yards, 25 TDs and just nine INTs.
Bailey is a very good dual-threat option, too, running for 215 yards and six scores last season, although nobody is going to confuse him for Michael Vick or Lamar Jackson as a run threat. Two of his six touchdowns on the ground came in last season's 35-31 win over Virginia, and he'll be relied upon heavily in this opener at Scott Stadium.
The good news for State is that it has two NFL-caliber members of the offensive line. If the rest of the line can jell with Teague Andersen and Spike Sowells, that is going to give Bailey even more time to deal. That's good news for Jayden Scott, too, as he takes over for the departed Hollywood Smothers, who's now at Texas.
Bailey should find wide receiver Victor Snow to be a reliable pass catcher. He'll be needed with Terrell Anderson (USC) and Noah Rogers (Alabama) off to greener pastures.
Like most other programs, Virginia has transfers at key spots, too. Beau Pribula takes over under center after a good run at Missouri last year. Perhaps the third stop is a charm, as he started out as a backup at Penn State. He threw for 1,941 yards, 11 TDs and nine INTs while running for 297 yards and six touchdowns. He remains a work in progress.
I'll take Bailey, and a little bit of stability, over a new guy trying to learn a new offense at his third stop. As such, let's back NC State catching the points as our best bet of the game.
NC State at Virginia Expert Pick: NC State +4.5 (-115 FanDuel)
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NC State at Virginia Predictions for Week 0
We won't spend a ton of time focusing on trends, as it doesn't make a ton of sense. There is so much turnover in college football these days, that even what happened last season can be vastly different from what is happening this season.
Still, it's worth noting that the Under has cashed in four straight meetings in this series in Charlottesville since 2006. However, the losing team has also had at least 21 points in each of the past four in this series overall, so defense hasn't exactly been a hallmark between these ACC combatants. Last season, we saw 66 combined points, with NC State totaling 416 yards, and UVA going for 514 yards.
We're likely going to see both quarterbacks doing big things. Bailey and Pribula are working with a new cadre of receivers, so don't be surprised to see some ugly passes and busted routes, perhaps leading to some miscues, too. The offenses should be ahead of the defenses, however, and going high on the total is a good bet if you're looking for a same-game parlay (SGP) opportunity.
Prediction: NC State 31, Virginia 27
NC State at Virginia Player Props for Saturday, Aug. 29
As far as player props, it's a good bet to take both of these running quarterbacks to find the end zone with their legs.
CJ Bailey, QB, NC State: Bailey scored two rushing touchdowns against the Hoos last season, and he can fetch nearly three times your original stake if he scores a rushing TD on Saturday.
Beau Pribula, QB, Virginia: Pribula has scored 16 rushing touchdowns across three seasons with Penn State and Mizzou, including six scores last season with the Tigers. He'll look to get off on the right foot in this ACC opener Saturday.
