College Football Picks: North Carolina vs. TCU Best Bets
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Week 0, the proverbial amuse-bouche of college football, features a couple of games that could have a real impact on the college football players. Also, North Carolina and TCU are playing in Dublin, Ireland.
That is a cutting remark, I grant you, but not an inaccurate one, and also not to assert this game won't be interesting. It is definitely interesting, but it is possible-to-likely both of these teams are far from the playoff race in 2026. These two teams met last year on Labor Day to close out Week 1 of the season, a big gala in Chapel Hill as Bill Belichick, one of the NFL's all-time greats on the coaching front, took over North Carolina's football program. The Tar Heels were rolled 48-14 by the Horned Frogs and finished the season 4-8. Any momentum for the program seems to be solely in the direction of heaping scorn upon Belichick's good friend Mike Lombardi. TCU finished 9-4, but standout quarterback Josh Hoover took off for Indiana.
As I said, things will be interesting in Dublin here in Week 0, which means the betting opportunities related to this game are also quite interesting.
North Carolina vs. TCU Betting Odds for Week 0
Spread: TCU -7.5 (FanDuel), North Carolina +9 (BetRivers)
Total: Over 47.5 (DraftKings), Under 47.5 (BetMGM)
Moneyline: TCU - 298 (DraftKings), North Carolina +265 (BetRivers)
By and large, the books have TCU as a 7.5-point favorite, with BetRivers being the outlier. That is a strong favorite given just how neutral this site is, what with it being across the Atlantic Ocean, and neither of these teams being Notre Dame.
North Carolina vs. TCU Betting Picks for Week 0
Yes, dunking on Belichick and the grand experiment of hiring him to run "the NFL's 33rd team" down at North Carolina is fun, but it is not necessarily profitable. We have to give the Tar Heels a fair shake here as an underdog by more than a touchdown on a neutral site.
TCU was better last season, and it is coached by a guy (Sonny Dykes) who we know actually knows how to coach college football. A 9-4 record is better than a 4-8 record, especially one where the four wins were Charlotte, Richmond, Syracuse, and Stanford. Also, the Horned Frogs winning on the road 48-14 last season would indicate a sizable gap the Tar Heels needed to make up this offseason. The preseason SP+ rankings have TCU 32nd and North Carolina 56th. Notable, but not massive.
I did note the Horned Frogs have a new quarterback. TCU has opted to go with an FCS standout, bringing in Jaden Craig after two successful seasons at Harvard. Harvard is not a school to schedule FBS opponents, though, so UNC's best chances may be that Craig isn't ready for an FBS defense, even if it isn't a particularly good FBS defense. Of course, North Carolina also has a new quarterback in Billy Edwards, who is in his sixth season but has one season as a starter under his belt, 2024 for Maryland. He totaled 20 touchdowns and 11 turnovers.
In Week 0, it is fair to ask a team to prove it to you. Belichick needs to prove he's a capable college coach. Edwards needs to prove that he can be a viable starter. Sure, Craig needs to prove he can do that at the FBS level as well, but TCU beat North Carolina by 34 points on the road last season. All it has to do to cover is win by a smidge more than a touchdown. I feel like I can believe in that.
North Carolina vs. TCU Expert Pick: TCU -7.5 (FanDuel)
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North Carolina vs. TCU Predictions for Week 0
It's Week 0, and it is a game in Dublin, so there's a wide range of outcomes here. However, I would be surprised if the Heels won outright. It likely won't be the rout it was last year. North Carolina's defense isn't likely to be great, but it could be decent, and Craig will be making his first start for an FBS team and his first start against an FBS team.
The issue for the Tar Heels is their offense, which was last in the ACC in total yards per game and second-to-last in points per game in 2025, and which I think will be worse in 2026. If I were to make a play on the point total for this game, it would be for the under. TCU scored 48 points in 2025, and I don't see these two teams combining to get to 48 points here in Week 0. A big part of that is that when I look at Edwards and the North Carolina offense, I see little upside right now.
TCU 27, North Carolina 10
North Carolina vs. TCU Player Props for Saturday, August 29
Jordan Dwyer, WR, TCU: Under 64.5 receiving yards - In the opener last year, Dwyer had nine catches for 136 yards. That was on nine targets, though, and also that was with Hoover under center. There were seven games last season wherein Dwyer failed to get over 64.5 receiving yards, so with a Harvard transfer under center, I don't expect a repeat performance of last season.
* Editor's note: Monitor if Dwyer props are still available. His status for the opener is in question due to a foot issue.
Jeremy Payne, RB, TCU: Over 74.5 rushing yards - Yes, Payne only did this twice last season, but he also only got double-digit carries in four games. That includes the last three games of the year, which saw him rush for 103, 174, and 73 yards. Four guys got 50 carries or more for TCU last season, and only two of them remain. If Payne has more of a workload in 2026, getting over 75 yards in a matchup like this is definitely doable.
